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June 02, 2004

It's Not a "Recovery." It's a Boom.

MRC digests an article from CBS MarketWatch (registration required for MarketWatch) which is must-reading.

The article is digested in the second item, in the second half of that item (the first half is MRC's own evidence of media bias on the economy, which is also sort of interesting, but it's repetitive and it's stuff you already know).

Choicest bits:

To hear Big Media tell it, the U.S. economy is in a fragile state of 'recovery’ that threatens to be undermined at any moment, by rising interest rates, by soaring gas prices, by another terrorist attack.

In fact, the economy has been in a state of rip-roaring 'expansion’ -- the strongest in 20 years -- yet the media persists in painting a dreary picture.

...

"I don't know how much is agenda and how much is ignorance or just lemming-type journalism," said Comerica Bank Chief Economist David Littmann, who's tracked the economy for 40 years. "We're in a mini-boom, and to characterize it as a recovery is to diminish it."

This isn't nitpicking, mind you. The media is a powerful influence on how we view ourselves, and refusing to come around to substituting one word for another is depressing the national mood.

Think about it: An expansion implies strength and virility, while recovery suggests lingering weakness -- the stroke victim in therapy for paralysis, or the reformed alcoholic still at risk of falling off the wagon.

...

[T]ry these measures on for size:

* The nation's GDP grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, capping its biggest 12-month gain since 1984. By most forecasts, GDP this year is expected to grow 4.7 percent -- the best calendar-year performance in two decades, surpassing even our longed-for 1999.

* The economy has created more than 1.1 million jobs since last August, with unemployment falling to 5.6 percent in April. That rate was lower, by a hair, in only two of 22 years from 1974-to-1995 -- 5.5 percent in 1988 and 5.3 percent in 1989.

[!!! Did anyone else know this?!!! The media keeps throwing the final unemployment reading under Clinton at us --3.8% -- but it turns out that was just a one-month figure; the average for the year was actually higher than Bush's is now, and indeed his averages for all the years of his his Presidency were higher than Bush's current unemployment figures.]

* Home ownership reached a record-high 68.6 percent in first quarter of this year -- up nearly 5 percentage points in the last decade

Yet the major media clings to the word "recovery" like a malpractice-fearing doctor too afraid to offer an optimistic prognosis to family members. For instance:

* A May 19 Wall Street Journal story on a speech by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero said he expects inflation to remain contained during "the U.S. economic recovery." (The Journal's words)

* A May 15 New York Times story on Money magazine naming a new editor said: "By this time in the recovery, most people can at least bear to open their 401(k) statements..."

* A May 18 Reuters story carried on NYT.com, the Times' Web site, said: "Mortgage rates dipped to near 40-year lows in the first few months of 2004, but have risen in recent weeks as signs of the U.S. economic recovery have solidified..." ...

When I alerted my boss to his use of the word "recovery" in a TV interview about rising oil prices, and its use by one of our columnists, he said: "You wouldn't call it an expansion if you were one of the people still unemployed."

Therein lies the root of the error.

Those who think we're still in a recovery apparently won't change their view until we return to the record-low 3.8 percent unemployment we enjoyed for a fleeting moment in 2000 during the most prosperous economy in history.

That's like not recognizing a bull market until the Nasdaq surpasses 5,000 again. I'd bet my retirement savings no one alive in the U.S. today will ever see sub-4 percent joblessness again, and here's why.

For decades, economists considered 4.5 percent "full employment," so the U.S. entered a labor-market utopia when we dropped far below that. But 3.8 percent didn't reflect real production needs. It reflected a gross overcapacity of human resources, as employers with delirious growth expectations rushed to net the little talent left in a labor pool then shallower than a sidewalk puddle after a light summer rain....

posted by Ace at 04:16 PM

Comments

No cowbell? Is that because this is a 'good news/bad news scenario?

Posted by: Jeff on June 2, 2004 05:08 PM

"...employers with delirious growth expectations rushed to net the little talent left in a labor pool then shallower than a sidewalk puddle after a light summer rain.... "

EXACTLY.

How many times have I said this...?

The unemployment rate is way too damn low. Excuse me, pardon me, forgive me, I am surely going to Hell for saying this (that, and I'm an atheist), but when my groceries are bagged by non-retards, I will believe the unemployment rate is high. They put ONE item in each bag, you know. That's like, 40 bags. For 37 items. And they still smash the bread.

When the gal at the checkout counter isn't too hip to spit her gum out to answer a question, and not roll her eyes at me, when customer service reps on the phone know what company they work for, when I can get decent service ANYWHERE, then I will believe that unemployment is high.

But they hire from the dregs, and so I must believe that is all they can get. Everybody good has a better job. Period. That isnt the sign of a bad economy.

When people with Engineering degrees are working the cosmetics department at Walmart I will be beside myself with worry. Until then, everybody just shut up.

Posted by: lauraw on June 4, 2004 12:40 AM

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Top Headlines

Oh no! Hamas' de facto press agent at the UN complains that she can't use her credit cards or rent a card now that she's been sanctioned as a terrorist operative
Why does this keep happening to members of the "political organization" (per Tucker Carlson) of Hamas?!?!

Tucker Carlson claims that it's weird that Ted Cruz is interested in the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, because he has "no track record of being interested in Christians," then blows off the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, saying it might or might not be a real concern
Tucker Carlson enjoys using the left-wing tactic of "Tactical Ignorance" to avoid taking positions on topics. Is Hamas really a terrorist organization? Tucker can't say. He hasn't looked into it enough, but "it seems like a political organization to me." Are Muslims slaughtering Christians in Nigeria? Again, Tucker just doesn't know. He hasn't examined the evidence yet. He knows every Palestinian Christian who said he was blocked from visiting holy sites in Bethlehem, but he just hasn't had the time to look into the mass slaughter of Christians in Nigeria that has been going on since (checks watch) 2009. He doesn't know, so he can't offer an opinion. Wouldn't be prudent, you know? Don't rush him! He'll sift through the evidence at some point in the future and render an opinion sometime around 2044.
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You'd think that the main issue for Tucker Carlson, who pretends to be so deeply concerned about Palestinian Christians being bullied by Jews in Israel (supposedly), would be the massacre of 185,000 Christians in Nigeria itself. But no, his main problem is that Ted Cruz is talking about it, "who has no track record of being interested in Christians at all." And then he just shrugs as to whether this is even a real issue or not.
Whatever we do we must never "divide the right," huh?
Tucker is attacking Ted Cruz for bringing the issue up because he's acting as an apologist for Jihadism, and he can't cleanly admit that Jihadists are killing any Christians, anywhere. There is no daylight between him and CAIR at this point.
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Sydney Sweeney has passed from celebrity to Meme Legend

Garth Merenghi is interviewed by the only man who can fathom his ineffable brilliance -- Garth Merenghi
From the comments:

I once glimpsed Garth in the penumbra betwixt my wake and sleep. He was in my dream, standing afar, not looking my way, nor did he acknowledge me. But I felt seen. And that's when I knew I was a traveler on the right path. I'm glad he's still with us.

Now that's some Merenghian prose.
Garth Merenghi on the writer's craft

Greetings, Traveler. If you still have not experienced Garth Merenghi -- Author, Dream-weaver, Visionary, plus Actor -- the six episodes of his Darkplace are still available on YouTube and supposedly upscaled to HD. (Viewing it now, it doesn't appeared upscaled for shit.)
I think the second episode, "Hell Hath Fury," is the best by a good margin. Try to at least watch through to that one. It's Mereghi's incisive but nuanced take on sexism.

TJM Returns with a discussion of Auteur Theory.

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Update on Scott Adams:

Scott Adams had approval for this cancer drug but they hadn't scheduled him to get it. He was taking a turn for the worse. Trump had told him to call if he needed anything, so he did. Talked to Don Jr (who is in Africa) , then RFK Jr, then Dr Oz. Someone talked to Kaiser and he was scheduled. Shouldn't have needed it but he did and he says it saved his life.
Posted by: Notsothoreau

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Funny retro kid costumes, thanks to SMH
Good to see people honoring Lamont the Big Dummy

Four hours of retro Halloween commercials and specials
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No lies detected so far

Live Now: Dana Loesch is interrogating Heritage President Kevin Roberts on his insistence that the gay Nazi Nick Fuentes is an absolutely essential "conservative" voice whose ideas we must take seriously and who we must absolutely not exclude based on his Naziism

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The original rules of football did not allow forward passes. The ball was primarily advanced by running, with blockers forming lines with interlocked arms and just smashing into the similarly-interlocked defensive lines. It was basically Greek hoplite spear formations but with a semi-spherical ball. As calls to ban the sport entirely grew, some looked for ways to de-emphasize mass charges as the primary means of advancing the ball, and some specifically championed allowing a passer to throw the ball forward.