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| Economic Forecast: Sunny With a 85% Chance of Cowbell »
June 02, 2004
It's Not a "Recovery." It's a Boom.The article is digested in the second item, in the second half of that item (the first half is MRC's own evidence of media bias on the economy, which is also sort of interesting, but it's repetitive and it's stuff you already know). Choicest bits: To hear Big Media tell it, the U.S. economy is in a fragile state of 'recovery’ that threatens to be undermined at any moment, by rising interest rates, by soaring gas prices, by another terrorist attack. In fact, the economy has been in a state of rip-roaring 'expansion’ -- the strongest in 20 years -- yet the media persists in painting a dreary picture. ... "I don't know how much is agenda and how much is ignorance or just lemming-type journalism," said Comerica Bank Chief Economist David Littmann, who's tracked the economy for 40 years. "We're in a mini-boom, and to characterize it as a recovery is to diminish it." This isn't nitpicking, mind you. The media is a powerful influence on how we view ourselves, and refusing to come around to substituting one word for another is depressing the national mood. Think about it: An expansion implies strength and virility, while recovery suggests lingering weakness -- the stroke victim in therapy for paralysis, or the reformed alcoholic still at risk of falling off the wagon. ... [T]ry these measures on for size: * The nation's GDP grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, capping its biggest 12-month gain since 1984. By most forecasts, GDP this year is expected to grow 4.7 percent -- the best calendar-year performance in two decades, surpassing even our longed-for 1999. * The economy has created more than 1.1 million jobs since last August, with unemployment falling to 5.6 percent in April. That rate was lower, by a hair, in only two of 22 years from 1974-to-1995 -- 5.5 percent in 1988 and 5.3 percent in 1989. [!!! Did anyone else know this?!!! The media keeps throwing the final unemployment reading under Clinton at us --3.8% -- but it turns out that was just a one-month figure; the average for the year was actually higher than Bush's is now, and indeed his averages for all the years of his his Presidency were higher than Bush's current unemployment figures.] * Home ownership reached a record-high 68.6 percent in first quarter of this year -- up nearly 5 percentage points in the last decade Yet the major media clings to the word "recovery" like a malpractice-fearing doctor too afraid to offer an optimistic prognosis to family members. For instance: * A May 19 Wall Street Journal story on a speech by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero said he expects inflation to remain contained during "the U.S. economic recovery." (The Journal's words) * A May 15 New York Times story on Money magazine naming a new editor said: "By this time in the recovery, most people can at least bear to open their 401(k) statements..." * A May 18 Reuters story carried on NYT.com, the Times' Web site, said: "Mortgage rates dipped to near 40-year lows in the first few months of 2004, but have risen in recent weeks as signs of the U.S. economic recovery have solidified..." ... When I alerted my boss to his use of the word "recovery" in a TV interview about rising oil prices, and its use by one of our columnists, he said: "You wouldn't call it an expansion if you were one of the people still unemployed." Therein lies the root of the error. Those who think we're still in a recovery apparently won't change their view until we return to the record-low 3.8 percent unemployment we enjoyed for a fleeting moment in 2000 during the most prosperous economy in history. That's like not recognizing a bull market until the Nasdaq surpasses 5,000 again. I'd bet my retirement savings no one alive in the U.S. today will ever see sub-4 percent joblessness again, and here's why. For decades, economists considered 4.5 percent "full employment," so the U.S. entered a labor-market utopia when we dropped far below that. But 3.8 percent didn't reflect real production needs. It reflected a gross overcapacity of human resources, as employers with delirious growth expectations rushed to net the little talent left in a labor pool then shallower than a sidewalk puddle after a light summer rain.... posted by Ace at 04:16 PM
CommentsNo cowbell? Is that because this is a 'good news/bad news scenario? Posted by: Jeff on June 2, 2004 05:08 PM
"...employers with delirious growth expectations rushed to net the little talent left in a labor pool then shallower than a sidewalk puddle after a light summer rain.... " EXACTLY. How many times have I said this...? The unemployment rate is way too damn low. Excuse me, pardon me, forgive me, I am surely going to Hell for saying this (that, and I'm an atheist), but when my groceries are bagged by non-retards, I will believe the unemployment rate is high. They put ONE item in each bag, you know. That's like, 40 bags. For 37 items. And they still smash the bread. When the gal at the checkout counter isn't too hip to spit her gum out to answer a question, and not roll her eyes at me, when customer service reps on the phone know what company they work for, when I can get decent service ANYWHERE, then I will believe that unemployment is high. But they hire from the dregs, and so I must believe that is all they can get. Everybody good has a better job. Period. That isnt the sign of a bad economy. When people with Engineering degrees are working the cosmetics department at Walmart I will be beside myself with worry. Until then, everybody just shut up. Posted by: lauraw on June 4, 2004 12:40 AM
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| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
Paul Sperry
Deport...Deport...Deport The F***ing Lot! A new UK anthem? [Hat Tip: S.E.] [CBD]
Trump: Ukraine War 'Thousands of Miles Away' is 'Nothing to Do' with America Russia isn't threatening to kill Americans! [CBD]
Update to Gavin Newsom Under Investigation story: This investigation was begun under Senor Dementia:
Adam Housley
Teen Driver Tayvin Galanakis Wins Jury Trial Against Officers Who Charged Him With DUI Even After He Blew 0.0 on A Breathalyzer And Passed Sobriety Tests. One Officer Accounted For 72% of All DUI Arrests For That PD [dri]
Days before the woman was stabbed in the neck by a taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer, in the same general area, another taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer attacked a boy and bloodied his head with a brick.
What is the UK Regime's plan for protecting the citizens from the savage criminals they've foisted on the populace? They offer NONE. They do, however, have a plan for protecting the savage criminals from the citizens: The citizens must STAY CALM and not get angry and not share videos of citizens being attacked by savage criminals. The public keeps saying "protect us from the foreign savages you have imported against our wishes and over our objections" and the UK branch of The Regime keeps proposing plans to protect the foreign savages from the public. Soclose to what the public is demanding, just, you know, the complete opposite. Just a thought: Maybe you wouldn't have to worry about the public attacking the savage criminals if you actually introduced a plan to protect the public from the savage criminals. Maybe they wouldn't feel as if it was necessary for them to protect the public through self-help.
Courtney Subramiam, one of the "journalists" who "previewed" her questions for the decrepit and demented Biden so that he could "answer" it with a pre-scripted response, rewarded by promotion to president of the White House Press Corps
Bonchie You know what's really terrible? There are Daily Signal reporters in the press room. That's the Real Scandal Here!
English racist garbage-person who's on the wrong side of history warns the corrupt Regime that the people cannot take much more of this -- and won't take much more of this
The English have rebelled before.
You might think that movie critics by nature are effeminate and bitchy, but, did you know that grass is green and red peppers are red?
Odd 90s-Retro Susan Collins ad against the Nazi Hotchkiss "hobby farmer"
I like the throwback AOL style of the ad.
Seattle mayor shrugs off millionaire-tax concerns as 44% of business leaders consider leaving
It happens in all the blue states, but WA and Seattle will be different! [CBD] Recent Comments
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