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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
Posted by: Smell the Glove

I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove

Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]

Tucker Carlson is pretty sure Trump is a wizard

Ted Turner Dies At 87 [CBD]

Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more!

TJM definitively ranks the films of Billy Wilder, like Some Like It Hot

TJM talks about Billy Wilder


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Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups NoVaMoMe 2026: 06/20/2026 Arlington VA Contact Bluebell/Weasel for info Texas MoMe 2026: 10/16/2026-10/17/2026 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« Sarah Silverman, Still Occasionally Funny \| Main \| Economy Powers To 4.3% GDP Growth, Despite Hurricanes » November 30, 2005 Expert Political Judgment The New Yorker does a good rundown on “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?”, a new book by Berkeley academic, Philip Tetlock. As the title suggests, it’s all about how accurate the predictions the political and economic pundits we see and read actually turn out to be. And Tetlock isn’t just some crank, shooting off his mouth. He’s pretty rigorous: [H]is conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. He picked two hundred and eighty-four people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends,” and he started asking them to assess the probability that various things would or would not come to pass, both in the areas of the world in which they specialized and in areas about which they were not expert. …By the end of the study, in 2003, the experts had made 82,361 forecasts And his conculsion? The ‘experts’ are full of it. [P]eople who make prediction their business—people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables—are no better than the rest of us. … Tetlock also found that specialists are not significantly more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen in the region they study. Knowing a little might make someone a more reliable forecaster, but Tetlock found that knowing a lot can actually make a person less reliable. And the big shots are the worst: Tetlock claims that the better known and more frequently quoted they are, the less reliable their guesses about the future are likely to be. The accuracy of an expert’s predictions actually has an inverse relationship to his or her self-confidence, renown, and, beyond a certain point, depth of knowledge. People who follow current events by reading the papers and newsmagazines regularly can guess what is likely to happen about as accurately as the specialists whom the papers quote. Tetlock points to a number of explanations, most centering on the psychological foibles inherent in assessing uncertainty, along with simple stuff like the fact there’s really no puditocracy penalty for ‘getting it wrong.’ Anyway, the piece is relatively short, not one of those New Yorker book/articles and well worth the read. (N.b. My predictions were not part of the study, and remain, of course, rock solid certainties. You can continue to bet the farm on the Good Doctor's forecasts) (h/t Jane Galt) posted by Dr. Reo Symes at 01:00 PM Comments Yeah, duh. Most bloggers seem to spend their days pointing out how wrong these experts are. The inverse relationship between predictions and accuracies is obvious for most liberal "experts" as they are merely giving voice to their dreams. The wronger they are, the more air they get. That way, Chris Matthews can circle jerk with fellow Bush bashers. Coulter pointed this out in Slander, how CNN threatened to replay a clip of her being wrong about how long the impeachment trial would last. Gee, who won that battle? I mean, if you are going to offer your credibility up to pose WP as a WMD, then you have to expect to never be right. Even if WP=WMD will get you NYT cred. BTW, does the WP=WMD mean that Iraq had WMDs? So Bush was right all along! Posted by: joeindc44 on November 30, 2005 01:19 PM I predicted those results. Posted by: polynikes on November 30, 2005 01:34 PM My guess is that Tradesports is a far better predictor of political events than the prognostications of puffed-up, self important pundits. I wish there would have been some way to bet on whether a military draft would be installed during the Bush presidency. I would have laid at least a grand against it, and I'm certain not one lefty would have taken the bet. Even they know how full of shit they are. Posted by: The Warden on November 30, 2005 01:45 PM He probably has a whole chapter devoted to Paul Krugman and Jim Cramer. Posted by: Moonbat_One on November 30, 2005 02:23 PM Or Dick Morris - he seems like the classic case of someone who's rewarded more for being entertaining than being right. He's a smart guy, but his bad predictions could fill a small library. The latest I remember (besides Hillary v. Condi) was that Bloomberg v. Ferrer would be down to the wire. Posted by: Yaron on November 30, 2005 03:07 PM I predict the nation is about to be swept by Kusinich fever!! Has anyone seen Dennis' new bride? She's like six foot two. And he's like, five foot nothing, one hundred and nothing. Like that scene in Deuce Bigalo. "That's a huge bitch!" Posted by: fugazi on November 30, 2005 03:57 PM The journal Science had a study on experts several years ago that came to the same conclusion. It focused on experts advising judges on whether a given criminal was likely to commit more crimes if released. Needless to say, they were flipping coins. The author of the study said that one thing surprised him. He expected that judges actually believed the experts. In fact, he found that judges recognized perfectly well, that the experts were blowing smoke. They went with the expert recommendations because they had nothing better, and it shifted the responsibility off them and on to the "experts." Posted by: Bob Hawkins on December 1, 2005 02:51 PM Reminds me of the bio of Jimmy the Greek I saw on ESPN yesterday. He didn't know shit about football, but he sure could call them. Posted by: Mark V. on December 1, 2005 06:02 PM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Remember info?	Now Available! The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?" Posted by: Smell the Glove I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove Chris @chriswithans "Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh" Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today Something is wrong as I hold you near Somebody else holds your heart, yeah You turn to me with your icy tears And then it's raining, feels like it's raining TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games "It's fking fked." -- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source" Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held. Basil the Great @BasilTheGreat 🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight It's over "The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them) No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters. Only a cult does this. Now they've lost 84%. Annunziata Rees-Mogg @zatzi If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight. That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen. Cataclysmic Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them. Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats... The British Patriot @TheBritLad 🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.< br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week. Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats. Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing. Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult. Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending. (((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist. Nick Lowles @lowles_nick Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats. Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98. Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years. Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45 Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%. I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens. REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56. Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that. People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs. Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes. Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media: That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time. I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?" Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace' [Hat Tip: TC] [CBD] Tucker Carlson is pretty sure Trump is a wizard Ted Turner Dies At 87 [CBD] Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more! 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Expert Political Judgment