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October 18, 2005

Murder Rate Lowest Since 1965

Despite what your local newscasts - your ‘Freeway Chase Channel 7’s and ‘Warehouse Fire Fox 13s’ - might lead you to believe, seems we’re living in relatively safe times:

The nation's murder rate declined last year for the first time in four years, dropping to the lowest level in 40 years. Experts said local rather than national trends were mostly responsible.

Just like I’ve always said, All murder is local. Glad the so called experts are catching up with me. But the good news ain’t just limited to murder:

The rates for all seven major crimes were down and the overall violent crime rate reached a 30-year low, according to the FBI's annual compilation of crimes reported to the police.


I’m not saying this means you can now sleep with the door unlocked, or that it’s now a good idea to tell the wife, “You ain’t got the guts to pull that trigger,” (never wanna play that scene that way, no matter what the rate is) but… it is kinda nice to see a societal trend headed in the right direction, that the world doesn’t necessarily have to spiral into anarchy.

Good news is news too.


posted by Dr. Reo Symes at 01:26 AM
Comments



The number of cops getting zapped is down too.

UCR(this is a PDF)

Posted by: Purple Avenger on October 18, 2005 01:46 AM

I blame Bush!!! And I question the timing!!!!

Posted by: Jack M. on October 18, 2005 02:48 AM
Good news is news too.
Sure...unless it happens in Iraq.
Posted by: Sean M. on October 18, 2005 02:54 AM

Curious that the suicide rate among US troops in Iraq is lower than that of similar age groups in most european countries isn't it...

One would have thought the "stress" and "depression" of being imperialists in a hot area would be higher than living in the peacetime socialist paradise.

Maybe the euros should sign up with the Marines so they won't be so prone to depression and offing themselves.

Posted by: Purple Avenger on October 18, 2005 03:23 AM

Maybe the euros should sign up with the Marines so they won't be so prone to depression and offing themselves.

Shhhhhhhh!!


Posted by: on October 18, 2005 04:31 AM

I'm sure the UN is brainstorming a way to steal credit for this as we speak.

Posted by: someone on October 18, 2005 06:44 AM

'All murder is local'
Yeah, when it's national it's called 'Being at War'
In the mid 90's the FBI and NIJ altered the way that
crime stats are reported. New version placed additional requirements for a crime to count, i.e., a "suspected homocide" would need a more than previous level of evidence to be reported as such. Not suprisingly, crime rates have steadly fallen since then. What a coincidence.

Posted by: ed in texas on October 18, 2005 07:44 AM

I heard an interview with the guy who created Law & Order (original version). He was a crime scene journo and got to know the homicide police really well. He said that the percentage of homicide victims are killed after using a TV line like "You ain't got the guts..." or "Go ahead and shoot me!" is enormous. Funny, but people who are agitated enough to pull a gun on you in malice might not be the best people to whom comments like that should be directed.

A lot of the killers in those situations would protest "but he told me to shoot him!" when arrested.

Posted by: harkyman on October 18, 2005 07:49 AM

Anyone else notice how the AP report bends over backwards to assure us that the drop is not because of Bush but in spite of Bush? (Local efforts, programs targeting guns, even though the economy is bad, etc.)

Posted by: Likely Target on October 18, 2005 08:14 AM

More bad guys in jail = fewer bad guys out there committing crimes. Whoa! Who wudda thought it?

Posted by: tefta on October 18, 2005 08:38 AM

Whoa.......

Hold on.

Madonna says to change our evil ways or go to Hell....and the crime rate drops?!

The question is...How did Rove get to Madonna?

Posted by: citizenpain1 on October 18, 2005 09:07 AM

I don't care what they say, I still ain't leaving the house.

Posted by: harrison on October 18, 2005 09:20 AM

Ed's meds have not kicked in yet. Keep telling yourself that its all a matter of labels, Ed. All a matter of labels.

Posted by: on October 18, 2005 09:20 AM

Nice to see that fluoridation program finally bearing some fruit.

Posted by: Slublog on October 18, 2005 09:22 AM

Another factor responsible for the lower murder rate is improved emergency medicine. I have had ER doctors tell me that there are a lot of patients who, 20 years ago, would be murder victims but today are merely victims of aggravated assault and/or attempted murder.

Posted by: holdfast on October 18, 2005 09:34 AM

The murder rate is down and its not becuase of gun control or this phonie rehabilitation its becuase more people are armed and we are sending more crinimals to longer sentences and we quit listening to the new age psyco-babble idiotic babbling

Posted by: spurwing plover on October 18, 2005 09:38 AM

This can't be right. There were supposed to be rivers of blood when the assault weapons ban sunsetted a year ago.

The Brady Campaign must very disappointed.

Posted by: stace on October 18, 2005 09:54 AM

Add a "be" to that.

Posted by: stace on October 18, 2005 09:56 AM

Okay, that's it. I'm going to call bullshit on spurwing plover. He smelled funny from the git-go, but "crinimals" is over the top.

Clumsy troll, dude.

Posted by: S. Weasel on October 18, 2005 10:02 AM

I had him figured for a drinking man myself.

Posted by: spongeworthy on October 18, 2005 10:06 AM

"I’m not saying this means you can now sleep with the door unlocked, or that it’s now a good idea to tell the wife, “You ain’t got the guts to pull that trigger,” (never wanna play that scene that way, no matter what the rate is)"

What, you couldn't have told me that two weeks ago? Thanks for nothing.

Posted by: Sobek on October 18, 2005 10:32 AM

I'm going to call bullshit on spurwing plover.

The points he made are legitimate.

Posted by: on October 18, 2005 10:57 AM

Where is the Left's moral outrage over 16 THOUSAND deaths? We see them freaking out over the 1980 US deaths in Iraq, why are those deaths more of an outrage than the ones here?

Oh wait, those make a political point.

Posted by: Vulture 6 on October 18, 2005 11:27 AM

The points he made are legitimate.

The points he makes are banal. He flies over every thread, plops a brain dead one-liner with every third word misspelled, and flaps off to the next one. If he's a troll, he's a bore. If he's legitimate, he's a maroon.

Posted by: S. Weasel on October 18, 2005 11:31 AM

If he's a troll, he's a bore. If he's legitimate, he's a maroon.

You get an "amen" from me, Brother Weasel.

Posted by: Monty on October 18, 2005 12:05 PM

I'd swear he's spam, but I can't figure out what he's selling.

Posted by: Ray Midge on October 18, 2005 12:08 PM

There was an oped in the LA Times this weekend (I'd link it, but ace's censor software won't let me) about prisons and rehabilitation. If you want to read it, Google the title: These jampacked joints don't make you safe.

The article has some standard lefty boilerplate (i.e. "Just locking people up is bad, 'mkay?") and some good points, too.

But check out the end, where the author sez:

...the public needs to understand that criminal behavior is not simply caused by a failure of moral willpower, but results from a constellation of factors, including dysfunctional schools, poor healthcare, single-parent households and the lack of economic opportunity.

POOR HEALTHCARE CAUSES CRIME?!!! ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

Posted by: Sean M. on October 18, 2005 12:34 PM

Hey ed:

If it were a simple matter of redefinition, then how could that alone cause a steady decline in the reported statistic?

Lets suppose you are right. There is a constant X thousand incident per year rate, but in 1995 the statistic is redefined so that only 50% of those incidents count anymore. So, your incident rate would look like this...

Year Incidents (1000s)
---------------------
1993 X
1994 X
1995 0.8X
1996 0.8X
1997 0.8X
1998 0.8X
1999 0.8X
2000 0.8X
2001 0.8X
2002 0.8X
2003 0.8X
2004 0.8X
2005 0.8X

Instead, a steady decline looks like this:
Year Incidents (1000s)
---------------------
1993 1.2X
1994 1.1X
1995 0.8X
1996 0.8X
1997 0.8X
1998 0.8X
1999 0.7X
2000 0.7X
2001 0.7X
2002 0.7X
2003 0.6X
2004 0.6X
2005 0.6X

It is impossible for a step measurement change to produce a steady decline

Posted by: Anonymous Coward on October 18, 2005 02:27 PM

All the potential murderers are so busy playing "25 to Life" or "GTA:SA" they don't have time to commit actual murders.

Posted by: Rob@L&R on October 18, 2005 04:20 PM

Any thoughts on the derivation on spurwings' name? Causes a painful and annoying brain itch that I cant scratch. OK, back to flinging poo.

Posted by: doc on October 18, 2005 06:40 PM

Hmm. Spurwing plover.
Spur-Wing-P-Lover

This guy loves the San Antonio Spurs, the Detroit Redwings, and P.

What?
Feck you!
Can you guys do any better?

Posted by: Bart on October 18, 2005 07:37 PM

The points he makes are banal. He flies over every thread, plops a brain dead one-liner with every third word misspelled, and flaps off to the next one. If he's a troll, he's a bore. If he's legitimate, he's a maroon.

Gee, who died and made you Ace? Not every post has to amuse or entertain you. If you don't like brain dead one-liners, talk to Jack and Sean. Only heard their jokes a million times. [sorry guys, just trying to make a point. post what you want.]

Posted by: on October 18, 2005 11:26 PM

Yeah all those rivers of blood that was suppost to have been flowing throught the streets of our cities whan king williams gun ban ended all those liberal columists out there like chicken little claiming all this bull kaka about a higher crime rate but it dont kind of like when KENNISHAW GEORGIA made a city ordenence making everyone carry a gun then its the state of FLORIDA makes a law saying a person can defend themself without fear of being sued by some greedy trial lawyers or sent to prison by antigun city officials and the usial rediclous blabbering by the liberal news media it looks like the New York Times Vulture went down south expecting a feast and is starving to death instead oh i love it when the libeeal news media is wrong in a big way

Posted by: SPURWING PLOVER on October 18, 2005 11:40 PM

See, I still don't get him either. Not everything he says is self-defeating like your typical moby-troll posing as a freeper, but everything he says IS mind-numbing. Literally. And he doesn't discuss, he just squawks and moves on. He missed everything in this thread about him. It's like someone's kid brother trying hard to fit in.

Posted by: Sortelli on October 18, 2005 11:48 PM
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Top Headlines
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
spidermanthreatormenace.jpg

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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Leftists who have been drawing Frankendistricts for decades are suddenly upset about Republican line-drawing
Socialist usurper Obama cut commercials urging Virginians to vote for the bizarre "lobster" gerrymander -- but now says gerrymanders are so racist you guys
Obama is complaining about the new Louisiana map -- but here's the thing, the new map has much more compact and rational borders than the old racial gerrymander map
Pete Bootyjudge is whining too. But here's the Illinois gerrymander he supports.
Big Bonus! Under the new Florida congressional map, Debbie Wasserman Schultz will probably lose her seat
And she can't even go on The View because she's ugly a clump of stranger's hair in the bath-drain
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