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April 26, 2005

Death From Above: Pentagon Plans Space-Delivery of Ordnance

Taking the very, very high ground:

The Pentagon is working to develop a suborbital space capsule within the next five years that would be launched from the United States and could deliver conventional weapons anywhere in the world within two hours, defense officials said.

This year, the Falcon program will test a launcher for its Common Aero Vehicle (CAV), an unmanned maneuverable spacecraft that would travel at five times the speed of sound and could carry 1,000 pounds of munitions, intelligence sensors or other payloads. Among the system's strengths is that commanders could order a CAV -- an unpowered glide vehicle -- not to release its payload if they decided not to follow through with an attack.

The first-generation CAV, expected to be ready by 2010, will have "an incredible capability to provide the warfighter with a global reach capability against high payoff targets," Gen. Lance W. Lord, commander of Air Force Space Command, told the House Armed Services Committee last Wednesday.

Within the next three years, the Falcon program hopes to enter a second stage of the effort: flight-testing two versions of a reusable hypersonic cruise vehicle, sometimes referred to as a space plane, that could travel a suborbital path, about 100,000 feet high, carrying a CAV anywhere in the world. Unlike a missile, the vehicle could return to its base after releasing the CAV to deliver bombs or intelligence sensors.

Let me repeat the most important part of that passage: the commander of the Air Force Space Command is named General Lance Lord.

If you put that in a script, they'd laugh at you.

Anyway, expect a lot of whining about the symbolism of arming the heavens. There aren't any caribou up there as far as I know, but the whiners are just big on whining about change, generally. They don't want oil rigs where they haven't been before nor cool-ass space-bombs where eagles fear to tread.

They say conservatives pine for the mores of the 50's... but many liberals seem to pine for the technology and military capabilities of the 50's. Which strikes me as pretty stupid.

And there's my shallow, kneejerk & repetitive political commentary for all you troglodytes and rightwing nutbags.

Thanks to CraigC.

Background/New Details From a Confidential Pentagon Source...


On whether a CAV launch looks like a nuke launch, and the usefulness of the system:

The CAV doesn't look like a nuke, unless you're stupid. Plus, the fixed site thing is important-- hell, we can even have foreign observers watch our launches. It won't matter too much if the bad guys have warning, [as that warning will be thirty minutes or so].

As for the target set, yes, the CAV is an expensive way to hit targets. But it's a *fast* way to hit targets. And sometimes fast is more important than cheap. The example we commonly use is the air strike against Saddam that opened the Iraq War in 2003. Even with an incredibly fast decision loop, that still took us a few hours to execute. CAV would've gotten there a lot sooner, which is the whole point.


posted by Ace at 12:11 AM
Comments



Lance Lord! That's the best name since Jeff Gannon. (Insert the citizens of Rock Ridge holding their hats over their hearts and singing "Jeff Ga-aa-non" here.)

Posted by: Dimmy on April 26, 2005 12:20 AM

Skynet? Is that you?

Posted by: hobgoblin on April 26, 2005 12:36 AM

Damn.

First time I glanced at the headline I thought it said "Penguin Plans Space-Delivery of Ordnance"

That would have been much more interesting.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow on April 26, 2005 12:38 AM

And there's my shallow, kneejerk & repetitive political commentary for all you troglodytes and rightwing nutbags.

Well we sure don't come here for the chicks.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow on April 26, 2005 12:41 AM

...hey!

Posted by: Megan on April 26, 2005 12:48 AM

A hypersonic cruise vehicle...

..."an incredible capability to provide the warfighter with a global reach capability against high payoff targets,"

Damn, I love being an American!

Posted by: on April 26, 2005 12:48 AM

er, that was me

Posted by: Lipstick Dynamite on April 26, 2005 12:49 AM

Sounds like another golly gee weapon that won't get built. Seems we already have alternate means of delivering 1,000 pounds on a target. Planes/JDAMs, and cruise, MRBM and SLBM missiles. Plus Predators + Next gen slower moving UAVs with fast missiles on board.

It's not like we currently lack means to take out terrorists - we just lack the Humint to know who and where they are. And the best way to get Humint is not dropping a bomb ot missile - but to have cooperation of local police, security forces - arrest them, and take 'em away for some long chats..

I don't see a need for this ultra-extensive baby, not with Bush's tax cuts for the best off Americans killing our military capital spending already given the deficits. We have less fighters, bombers, and ships than when Bush II came in, and he is on a ship construction schedule that shrinks the Navy down to 140 ships by 2020, base closures are proceeding, and he wants to go from 12 to 11aircraft carriers. The DDX is running up against the need for Bush's donors to keep & spend their tax cuts - and it's not like many have kids in the military to worry about.

We also have problems finding the "evildoers". We can't even seem to secure a 6-mile stretch of highway 'cause our intelligence doesn't match our high tech weapons. No target, no toy gets used.

It also has the characteristics and trajectory of a nuclear-tipped missile, so it would not be advisable to just "lob" one into China, N Korea, Russia, Pakistan to get a terrorist. That might cause some stuff to come flying back.

Posted by: Cedarford on April 26, 2005 12:55 AM

awww, blow me

Posted by: ace on April 26, 2005 12:57 AM

Chrissakes, Ace, you've seen what he does with that mouth.

Posted by: Megan on April 26, 2005 01:00 AM

Indeed! He's like the Louie Armstrong of dork-horn.

Posted by: ace on April 26, 2005 01:01 AM

"It also has the characteristics and trajectory of a nuclear-tipped missile, so it would not be advisable to just "lob" one into China, N Korea..."

Hell, I'd advise it !!!!

Special delivery for Kim Jong Il...Special delivery..

Posted by: Lipstick Dynamite on April 26, 2005 01:03 AM

I always liked the "Mjolnir" idea: put a zillion depleted uranium crowbars in orbit with guidance systems and simple propulsion. Trouble rears its ugly head, you just dial it in and drop a hundred pound weight on it..from 250 miles up

Maybe we should get Dave@GR on that right away.

Posted by: Alex_fs on April 26, 2005 01:19 AM

Ace, check your email.

Posted by: A Friend on April 26, 2005 01:26 AM

Well, it may be the comment that you love to hate, but a 2-hour delivery timeframe isn't likely to be very practically useful. Very few enemies are now forting up in castles and other non-mobile targets of opportunity. I'd rather see UAV's with Hellfire missiles overhead at all times.

And the points about the military procurement budgets being starved is very pertinent in this context. I don't begrudge anyone a tax cut (nor do I mind paying my taxes), but I want more bombs, planes, guns, and ships for my own peronal buck, and not a bunch of gee-whiz useless delivery systems instead of actual ordnance. Did any of you ever read "Superiority" by Arthur C Clarke?

Posted by: on April 26, 2005 01:33 AM

Sorry, that last post was by me.

Posted by: HT on April 26, 2005 01:34 AM

Someone call Dennis Kucinich!!!!

Posted by: Sortelli on April 26, 2005 01:41 AM

but a 2-hour delivery timeframe isn't likely to be very practically useful. Very few enemies are now forting up in castles and other non-mobile targets of opportunity.

What are you talking about? The first strike always goes against anti-aircraft positions, radars, SAM sites, command and control bunkers, radios, power grids, etc.

All of those are fixed targets.

There may come a day when stealth technology is defeated by better radar and we're going to want to take all that crap out from space before sending in manned bombers.

Posted by: ace on April 26, 2005 01:44 AM

America! Fuck Yeah!

Posted by: Ellis D. Tecnine on April 26, 2005 01:55 AM

ACE, ya moron! Ever hear of stealth fighters, cruise missiles? It's not like we lack the ability to drop 1,000 lb warheads on fixed targets, toot suite!.

This is just another expensive concept weapon in search of a sponsor and a mission.

Now, if Darpa comes up with something really cool, like ceramic armored Gambian pouched rats trained to lope ahead of a US convoy and sniff & find IEDs - that would be practical. Not adding weapon delivery system #18 to the 17 we have already than can quickly drop 400Kgs on "arch-evildoers" provided we (1) know about them; (2) locate them; (3) they indulge us and stand still for a few days.

Better we replace the all the fighters we lost cutting donuts above American cities for 2 years after 9/11 or talk about that 140 ship Navy Bush is downspending us into than the 20 million "super high tech missile".

A missile that drops one half ton bomb on target with no penetrating ability at 40 times the cost of a cruise missile and 20,000 times the cost of a JDAM.

Posted by: Cedarford on April 26, 2005 02:31 AM

My mate attended Staff College with a special forces type named Major Dan Fortune.

I shit you not.

Posted by: fidens on April 26, 2005 03:20 AM

My name is Ellis D. Tecnine.

I shit you.

Posted by: Ellis D. Tecnine on April 26, 2005 03:35 AM

Its called "thor" not Mjolnir Alex.

It would be nice to have something like it up in space because it would be the perfect way of dealing with any amphibious force attacking Taiwan, crushing any force invading a country we want protected, or devastating any blocking force in the way of our troops in a larger land battle. And it would be much faster time on target then this system.

HT,
Superiority's point was about trying to make major weapons changes or upgrades in a war without allowing for the teething problems that always show up at the expense of all else. It was a shot at the war winning wonder weapon mentality of the Germans durring WW2. It really doesnt fit given that we're not in a back against the wall war nor are we going to replace most of our other weapons with it.

Posted by: Sultanofsham on April 26, 2005 03:53 AM

Cedarford, ya moron! Ever hear of some of our cruise missles being shot down, also we've lost a stealth aircraft in combat before. Every year that goes by it will get easier for people to deal with these weapon systems. Its not about a lack of ability to deliver 1,000 lb warheads on fixed targets, its about the ability to do it better and safer.

Posted by: Sultanofsham on April 26, 2005 04:09 AM

"I always liked the "Mjolnir" idea: put a zillion depleted uranium crowbars in orbit with guidance systems and simple propulsion. Trouble rears its ugly head, you just dial it in and drop a hundred pound weight on it..from 250 miles up"
I don't know how realistic this is, but in a usenet discussion someone suggested destroying Nork nuclear facilities by dropping rods at night from high altitude, using fins etc to hold the orientation and trajectory, straight through the core and down deep into the ground, covered by the nuclear sludge that would follow. Looks like an accident. Feels great.

Posted by: Lazar on April 26, 2005 08:01 AM

Looks like an accident. Feels great.

Ok, that phrase is going in the file.

Posted by: lauraw on April 26, 2005 09:28 AM

The answer is the "Directed Asteroid Ordinance". Sooner or later, a large asteroid is going to be on a collision path with earth. The first thought might be to develop a way to alter the asteroids trajectory so that it doesn't hit earth, but I think a better approach would be to develop the capability to determine exactly where "we" want it to hit (ie. N. Koriea, Iran, Sytria....). The ultimate capability would be to get it to split into pieces and to hit all of the "evil doers" all at the same time.

Posted by: Master of None on April 26, 2005 09:31 AM

Lance! Aa-aaah!
Savior of the universe,
Lance! Aa-aaah!
He'll save every one of us.

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on April 26, 2005 09:43 AM

Yes, but can it fight off a Vogon Constructor Fleet?

Posted by: TallDave on April 26, 2005 10:58 AM

If it can deploy 1000 pounds of bad poetry, we've got a chance...

Posted by: Chris of Dangerous Logic on April 26, 2005 11:28 AM

A metric ton, or free verse?

Posted by: TallDave on April 26, 2005 11:31 AM

Whatever happened to the idea of dropping super-sonic bolts (for lack of a better term) from orbit - their terminal velocity would generate (roughly) the equivalent of a low-yield nuclear weapon, without any of the nasty fallout. That was just about the coolest idea I'd heard of when I read about that....

Where's Dave with my intelligence briefing?!?

Posted by: fat kid on April 26, 2005 11:36 AM

Cool! the Falcone project. Must be named after Vinnie Falcone! Ace, how did you miss that reference?

huh? what? ohh.... never mind.

Posted by: where's joe? on April 26, 2005 01:07 PM

Jesus, nothing sticks in my craw like Cedar being even a little bit right about something. We do, in fact, have T-O-N-S of excellent artillery options, and in almost any case, there's a better cost-benefit setup than this new gadget. HOWEVER, the big limit for all our other tools is getting there -- we have to fly in a plane, or pull a ship in close, or something. Even if the delivery method is stealthed, the time factor can be huge. I think there's a place for this new weapon, but that place is pretty small -- ONLY when we need really, really fast reactions.

Cedar defeated his own argument against this device, and reaction time is the reason. He said we need the humint to ID targets -- well, once you have that, how long is it good for? Suppose the battle is in Fallujah, but the target you've just gotten intel on is currently in Chile? How long does it take to fly/steam a deployment vector in there from the closest base?

That said, I like the sound of the Mjolnir/Thor system a lot -- similar reaction time, but a) disperse, which means it's even harder to shoot down, and b) persistent, in that you can put them in geostationary orbit and only have to fight decay very occasionally with tiny bursts of propellant. The ability to drop a satellite anywhere on the globe, really fast, is pretty damn attractive if you ask me.

Posted by: on April 26, 2005 02:25 PM

You know this Lance guy is in his office going
"Lightning BOLT! Lightning BOLT!"

Posted by: Iblis on April 26, 2005 02:50 PM

CAV isn't orbital-- it's a suborbital vehicle. Putting and leaving a weapon in orbit would be guaranteed to get the "no weapons in space" critics lined up against this.

As it is, their biggest concerns now is just against the whole "mistake CAV for a nuke delivery vehicle" issue.

Posted by: A Friend on April 26, 2005 03:00 PM

Dear April,

The idea is that if you have a global agreement on fighting terror, you don't need to "move assets" in theater....in your example...to call the Chilean police, military..and any US liaison resources nearby to apprehend the suspect. That certainly beats launching a ballistic missile attack on a friendly country's territory.

If you only have a few rogue nations where you can't count on the cooperation of locals, you park military assets nearby.

And while space-based weaponry to hit a China invasion ofTaiwan virtually instantly sounds good, in practice, the Chinese & Russians may not tolerate a weapon poised to instantly come down on their heads and would seek to destroy such orbiting platforms.

Still, the desire of some to win an ideological conflict with "high tech wonder weapons" is an entertaining diversion.....and perhaps one day they will come up with something actually useful like the Predator - like the effort to breed IED and mine-sniffing Giant Gambian pouched rats.

Sonofsham -
Explain again how we are so worried about the inability of cruise missiles to drop a 1,000 lb warhead on a target "better and safer" than an alternative that costs 40 times as much?

Seems we won't weep over "lost safety" if 3 of 40 cruise missiles are "killed" on their short flight to target. That leaves 37 accurate 1,000 lb bombs hitting. And a "new and improved" weapon that drops 1, not 37 bombs for the same price?? You can surely see the difficulty of making a sales pitch....

Posted by: Cedarford on April 26, 2005 03:09 PM

CAV isn't orbital-- it's a suborbital vehicle. Putting and leaving a weapon in orbit would be guaranteed to get the "no weapons in space" critics lined up against this.

Seems to me that this could be worked around by simplying spray-painting "film canister" on the side of the depleted-uranium crowbars...

Posted by: Anachronda on April 26, 2005 03:59 PM

Cedarford-- if those 37 1,000 lb bombs "accurately" hit the cave Osama Bin Laden left an hour earlier, then they're not worth ANY price.

Tanks can't do the jobs of ships. Ships can't do the jobs of airplanes. And cruise missiles can't do the job of something like CAV.

It's like rock-paper-scissors. Only rock costs a lot more than paper & scissors. You can live without rock, but you're only going to win 66% of the time. Or, once your enemy finds out you don't have rock, you lose every time.

We try our best to cover our bases, within technological capabilities, and available budgets.

Posted by: A Friend on April 26, 2005 04:15 PM

1) A falling crowbar cannot be mistaken for a ballistic missile. It has a totally different trajectory and radar profile.

2) China can try to shoot them down if they want. Good luck. Our defense budget is bigger than the next 15 nations combined; I'm betting on us to win that fight. Plus, they can find out first-hand what N Korea's economy is like when we embargo them. Yay! Instant Chinese revolution! I'm sure the new gov't will be more reasonable.

3) The main benefit is timing. Hitting things faster is better. Would we always use them in place of cruise missiles? No, just in cases where missiles are too slow.

Posted by: TallDave on April 26, 2005 05:04 PM

Remember, boys and girls:

Depleted uranium is the good DU

Posted by: TallDave on April 26, 2005 05:13 PM

Tall Dave - If we had an unlimited military budget, cost no object, a new toy that could get to a stationary target twice as fast as a cruise missile but 10-100 times slower than a plane or Predator circling above might be nice. As I said at the beinning, an 18th method for delivering explosive on the enemy might be nice if money wasn't a factor. But it is.

The Bushies are finally waking up to that and cancelling capital construction defence projects right and left...or scaling back. Reagan gave us a 600-ship Navy and tons of jobs to make them. Bush II is on track to a 140 ship Navy, and less M-1s, Bradleys, fighter jets, and bombers than when he took office. Basic R&D cut 30%. Air Force downsizing and base closures proceeding. Going to 11 aircraft carriers from 12 with 10 a possibility in 2007. 10 subs inc the San Francisco lost to the Fleet so far under Bush.

Posted by: Cedarford on April 26, 2005 06:26 PM

Cederford:

For once, I completely agree with you.

Posted by: BattleofthePyramids on April 27, 2005 01:08 AM
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