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« Bush Has Exit Strategy... For Syria | Main | Prepare For a Shock: T-Shirts Remain Available »
March 29, 2005

Some In Pentagon Dare to Whisper, "Victory?"

It's a Vietnam cliche, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?:

In the privacy of their E-ring offices, senior Pentagon officials have begun to entertain thoughts that were unimaginable a year ago: Iraq is turning the corner.

Military officials and analysts say the clearing out of enemy-infested Fallujah in November, the Jan. 30 elections and the increasing willingness of Iraqis to fight and die for a democratic country are contributing to the momentum.

"This is still a tough fight. We don't want anyone to think that it is not," said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a military analyst who strongly supports Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. "But the momentum is in our direction."

...

A military source in Iraq declined to give raw number of attacks, but said, "There has been a decided downward trend in the number and lethality of attacks since the January 30 elections."

A Pentagon official said the more that intelligence agencies analyze the insurgency, the clearer it becomes that a large part is criminal, not nationalistic.

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein released tens of thousands of hardened criminals, including murderers, before the March 2003 invasion, meaning that as the ex-convicts are recaptured, insurgent leaders might have an increasingly smaller pool from which to recruit attackers.

...

An analysis by Reuters shows that U.S. combat deaths in March so far have averaged barely one per day, the lowest figure since February 2004. All told, 1,520 U.S. personnel have died in Iraq, including 1,164 killed in action.

Nice of Reuters to notice, but the blogosphere noticed first.

And Kronology also notes that even the unabasedly lefty and anti-war Guardian UK is kinda-sorta admitting that things are going well... or badly, depending on whom you're rooting for.

Update: 10 Fingers 6 Strings has noted this previously as well, and has stats and analysis.


posted by Ace at 01:58 AM
Comments



It's even better than that. As criminals are recaptured, they'll be turned over to Iraqi justice ... which is less likely to let them out again than American.

Posted by: Steve Johnson on March 29, 2005 07:30 AM

Uh, Ace? What's this talk about "whispering?"

We talk pretty loudly about victory in here, if anybody cares to listen.

In fact, I don't remember EVER having a conversation, officially or unofficially, that contemplated defeat. It's just not in the cards, not this time.

Either way, it's like Col. Kilgore once said.

"Someday, this war's gonna end."

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on March 29, 2005 09:31 AM

I didn't mean they're whispering "victory" as a goal, but rather "victory" as in "are we about to win this thing?"

And that has to be new. If it isn't, they've been cockeyed optimists for too long.

Posted by: ace on March 29, 2005 11:58 AM

Hey Ace, can I toot my own horn here for a minute? I posted an analysis of our endgame back on March 15th.

http://www.tenfingers6strings.com/archives/000360.html

Not only are casualty figures down, but the Iraqi commando forces are engaging and handedly defeating insurgnets with regularity. I think a lot of pro-war people owe Mr. Rumsfeld and apology. His strategy of training an Iraqi security force to stand and fight on their own was the correct course of action. It didn't give him, or the administration, any short-term feathers in their hat, but thank God they chose the less political and more substantive strategy.

Posted by: TF6S on March 29, 2005 12:40 PM

Oh. Important nuance. Thanks, Egon.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on March 29, 2005 01:41 PM

JFK was fond of quoting (and he ought to know) that Victory has many fathers, and soon we'll be seeing the likes of John (I voted for it before I voted against it) Kerry, Ted (The Hero of Chappaquidick) Kennedy and Hillary (and then you smoked it?)Rodham/Rodham talking like they were Patton all along.

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on March 29, 2005 03:42 PM

What was I thinking? More likely Liberals'll claim that there were no WMDs and that the Iraqui-Afghani terrorist infrastructure was "an economic system that was rotten to the core and that would've collapsed much sooner of its own accord if we hadn't engaged in bellicose rhetoric and meddled in their country's affairs, and that diverted trillions of much needed dollars that could've been used to alleivate poverty, build roads and schools and expand health for our people as well the rest of the earth Kubaya, instead of paying it all to the militaryindustrialcomplex rapacious dogs at Halliburton."

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on March 29, 2005 04:06 PM

Iraqis will emerge the victors regardless of what the U.S. wants over there. I'll declare victory when American troops are back out of that war zone.

Posted by: Collin Baber on March 29, 2005 09:21 PM
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