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February 23, 2005

Crafty Republicans Planning Conference Betrayal?

Pardon the confusing headline; I really don't know how on earth to summarize this into something pithy.

You probably know that Bush recently floated the idea of raising the caps on payroll taxes -- not the actual rates, but the cut-off point for taxing income, from $90,000 up to, well, who knows.

Only a simpleton would fail to recognize that as a tax increase. I'm not necessarily against all tax increases, but I do know that Bush has rhetorically put himself in that camp, and of course Republicans generally don't like tax increases. (Unfortunately for liberals, neither do Americans generally.)

So why would Bush raise this possibility? Why even float something that would be shot down immediately by the House Republican caucus? I mean: we know he's not that dumb, right?

A blog I don't read -- the American Prospect's TAPPED -- posits a leftist conspiracy theory which I, for once, do not dismiss out of hand.

Before reading it, I think I should explain what the passage means by "phase-out bill." I don't really know what he means; I had to Google to find out what he's talking about. But, based on my (admittedly) cursory reading, it appears to me that partisan liberals are calling Social Security reform plans which include private savings accounts "phase-out bills," possibly to indicate that the ultimate goal is the complete phasing out of the Social Security system.

If I'm mistaken about that, I'd like to know, and I'll gladly print a retraction (despite the proof of my great ignorance that would entail). However, based on a quick search through left-leaning sites, they seem to just be using "phase-out" as a scare-term for any reform including private accounts. See this Social Security "Phase-Out" Q&A, for example.

At any rate. On to the actual maybe-not-so-crazy conspiracy theory:

Josh Marshall hints that some dastardly Democrat is contemplating a deal with Lindsey Graham wherein "current payroll tax revenues are left in place for now and private accounts are funded in whole or in part from new payroll tax revenues generated by raising or even lifting the payroll tax cap." This is a moderately bad idea on policy terms, and a simply terrible political idea.

Most crucially, the House Republican leadership has already ruled it out. Thus, the only possible effect of brokering a compromise of this sort with moderate Senate Republicans would be to create a conference committee in which whatever concessions the GOP makes to turncoat Democrats will be purged from the bill. Then, having already conceded the high ground on the need to "do something" and on the point that the "something" ought to involve private accounts, turncoat Democrats will be forced to argue that the only problem with the conference report on the phase-out is that it doesn't raise taxes. This will, at best, transform a political winner for the Democrats into a political loser and, at worst, lead to the passage of a bad phase-out bill.

Emphasis added.

Interesting, and I suppose a possibility.

Hat tip to...

And how I got on that site, I have no idea. I swear, my computer just dialed up Talking Points Memo itself, because I sure didn't enter that into the URL bar.

And...


If I'm sending traffic to TAP anyway, I guess I should point out this article as well.

In the lead up to the election, I complained repeatedly that the Democratic Party simply wasn't offering the voters actual positions on the most important matters of the day, but was merely offering positionings, quite a different thing.

Superliberal Michael Tomasky seems to concede the point:

I’ve long had the sense, and it’s only grown since I’ve moved to Washington, that conservatives talk more about philosophy, while liberals talk more about strategy; also, that liberals generally, and young liberals in particular, are somewhat less conversant in their creed’s history and urtexts than their conservative counterparts are (my excellent young staff excepted, naturally; I’m mostly wondering if young Democratic Hill aides have read, for example, The Vital Center or any John Dewey or Walter Lippmann or any number of things like that).

This came through, in fact, in the Balz and Edsall pieces. Go read them if you like. Balz’s account of the Democrats has them talking about things like positioning themselves to be tougher on national security, or whether the congressional Democrats should be more confrontational toward Bush. They’re talking tactics.

In Edsall’s piece, though, the conservatives are debating ideas. Grover Norquist and Robert Woodson, from an outfit called the National Center for Neighborhood Enterprise, engage in a debate about the nature of poverty; others discuss the morality-versus-personal-liberty question. Both conversations, as Edsall conveys them (and we can be sure that he conveyed them accurately), were far less about tactics than ideas.

One explanation for the difference in this particular case is that Balz was interviewing politicos, while Edsall had attended an ideas forum. This helps explain the difference, but it can’t be written off solely to that. Democrats just don’t talk about fundamental ideas enough, and anyone -- a person, a movement, a political party -- can’t really, deeply, profoundly know what he or she or it stands for without such conversations.

Well, duh. Welcome to the party, pal. Thinking about ideas n' shit. What a concept.

Tomasky seems to have an epiphany -- one he'll probably be attacked for -- but he manages to exhibit characteristic liberal cluelessness and condescension with this:

But we’ve also observed conservatives’ unanimity at election time, or when a major piece of legislation is up for consideration. We’ve explained this by citing their superior discipline. And it’s true, they are more disciplined. Conservative people by nature are more likely to heed their authority figures than liberal people are.

Uh-huh. Bush snaps his fingers, we all fall in line.

I am at this point a Social Security agnostic. I like the idea of private accounts, but I'm not keen on the multitrillion dollar transition costs. And I recognize that private accounts -- alone -- do not solve the Social Security crisis.

Many of you probably are in the same maybe, mabye not camp.

So we're not really showing that submission to authority that Tomasky feels is part of our genetic make-up.

On the other hand: Can you name a single prominent liberal commentator, politician, or blogger who is not foresquare against private accounts, in almost any configuration?

It seems to me that on this issue, for one, the liberals are marching in perfect lock-step.

And that actually annoys me a great deal. I'm not in lock-step with Bush on this; I could see myself supporting or rejecting his reforms based on, get this, the actual details of the proposal.

But Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Rangel, TAPPED, Al Franken, Jeneane Garofalo, and even

have all come out firmly against the very idea of private accounts, even in principle -- that is, in any form, under any circumstances.

So who here is actually submitting to "authority figures"? Or, perhaps more accuarately, who here is behaving like a crazed mob wielding pitchforks and torches, all acting in herd-fashion for a cause they don't seem to have taken very long at all considering?

posted by Ace at 02:28 AM
Comments



Ace... It's OK if your computer is a gay dog. I understand Michelle Malkin has that problem too.

Posted by: someone on February 23, 2005 03:36 AM

Raising taxes doesn't go over well with the relatively wealthy. The lower class and much of the middle class would be unaffected by an increase in the SS gouge cut-off limit though - THAT is why this sort of ploy could fly.

You can sell any tax increase in this country if its packaged as, and truly is, a "tax the rich" kinda thing.

The sharp operator avoids this by incorporating themself like I did. Pay yourself a nominal W2 type "salary" on which you'll be zonked double at around 15%, but then take the rest as dividend. Sure you pay double for a little while, but the free ride on the rest makes up for it quite quickly. The difference is several G's saved a year if you're scoring any kind of serious jack.

Posted by: TonyI on February 23, 2005 04:06 AM

It's like the Prince symbol, only this time it's a dog in a sailor suit.

Posted by: Kazmin on February 23, 2005 05:17 AM

Don't focus on the transition costs. The transition costs are only large when you don't consider the fact that doing nothing has a large cost as well (higher taxes or lower benefits at some future point).

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on February 23, 2005 07:51 AM

All joking aside, we shouldn't discount the effect this has on rising wages in larger businesses especially in high cost of living cities. After 90K, the marginal cost of a small raise goes down for the employer and yet the marginal benefit to the employee stays about the same. Remember with average deductions and exemptions, the marginal income tax rate goes from 15% to 25% around 90K too.

Posted by: JFH on February 23, 2005 09:52 AM

That's true, JFH, but is it really worth worrying about? More take-home pay is still more take-home pay. I'm more worried about the impact on hiring. However, the cost to the employer of a hike in the wage base is about $620 per $10k per employee. I don't think that's going to have much effect.

Posted by: Phil Smith on February 23, 2005 10:55 AM

ACE - You're right about the "Phase-out" label. They tried using "soch security" for SS but it had no legs. But "Phase-out" could work them at scaring seniors.

ACE - Don't want to ignore events, but they're getting to me again, how do you handle swimming in the sea of negativity they have peed out for all of us?

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on February 23, 2005 11:07 AM

The gay dog belongs to Barney Franks (I don't even want to think about it) who's hard at work on Capitol Hill bending pages.

Posted by: gaydog on February 23, 2005 11:12 AM

The morning talk radio show here in CT had an interview recently with Joe Lieberman in which he was extolling the virtues of Social Security.
He called it one of the most successful government programs ever, saving millions of older people from abject poverty. He said that most of the recipients depended upon Social Security for a large part of their income, many for their entire living.

These Democrats still think that greater dependence on government programs is evidence of the program's success!

I'd like to see that program phase out, provate accounts or no. Absolutely. It is a failure.

Posted by: lauraw on February 23, 2005 12:12 PM

He's already been attacked for it by Kevin Drum.

Yesterday, in fact.

Posted by: Birkel on February 23, 2005 12:17 PM

The problem with raising the cap at this point in time is that it won't all go into creating personal accounts. (And that means Robert Byrd [or Teddy Kennedy] will get another highway through WV with the "extra" revenue collected by raising the limits.)

Most of us naturally react with "But I make less than 90K a year anyway so what's the big deal?"

The big deal is that this money too will be loaned to the government and spent. Just like the rest of the SS surplus. And they'll waste the loot. Like every other time.

There is no reason to increase SS revenues now. Remember, it's running an excess for the next 13 years. So those dollars WOULD BE WASTED.

Don't let the class warfare stuff work.

Posted by: Birkel on February 23, 2005 12:24 PM

Ace,

Excellent piece of advice to teh other side, not that they'll listen. It's bad, even for conservatives, to have essentially a one party country, even if that one party is "ours."

Look at what's happened to Republicans since Reagan. He united us. Now, since we are in power, we have an all-too-clear split between moderate Repubs (or RINOs), socially conservative (or Fundies), and libertarian/individualist types (or stoned/crazy motherf-ers).

FWIW, I consider mtyself an individualist (or crazy) with a decent appreciation for traditional social structures (kind of a Burkean conservative with an American Frontier sentimentality).

The single unifying consensus of the Reagan Republican Party --- SMALL GOVERNMENT---has been cast aside by the RINO/Fundies once they succeeded in office. The democrats are reacting like the Republicans after Goldwater: disarray, political purity, etc. In 20 years, the Republicans will be wholly engorged at the trough of government, government (and Republicans) will become once again firmly identified with big buisiness interests, and the Left will be handed the key to electoral dominance for another generation.
GWB is a lot like Kennedy in that respect, Kennedy's muscular foreign policy was alien to the Dems, much like GWB's nation building is weird to a lot of Repubs.

Yet because the Left is so damn looney, us small government types are left forcing to defend wasteful government spending and abuse just to save our skins from Islamofascists.

Right now, the Dems are weak. Horribly so. But it is from this weakness that there strength will rise up again in the form of populist class warriors. I actually fear for the next time the dems are in power. They're so loopy now, a purer strain of Leftism might well kill the Republic.

We need the Dems stronger now to keep them from becoming overwhelming later.

Posted by: hobgoblin on February 23, 2005 12:31 PM

"being forced to defend"

jeez, me type gud!

Posted by: hobgoblin on February 23, 2005 12:33 PM

Mega Dittis hobgoblin. "In 20 years, the Republicans will be wholly engorged at the trough" shit! They already are. "We are forced to defend wasteful government spending and abuse just to save our skins from Islamofascists." I have the same thought every day but I'd add: insane racist, sexist, pro-gay affirmative action policies that seek to make disagreement with them a "hate crime" and want to criminalize it as "hate speech." "Hate thoughts" aren't far behind along with criminalizing all traces of religon in this Stalinist Brave New World. Can you imagine if the Left actually implemented all of this? It's an unfortunate business, this Hobson's Choice, but I've made my choice and it ain't with the Rabid Dogs of the Left.

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on February 23, 2005 05:53 PM

I'm with hobgoblin. Where in the hell is my smaller government and greater freedoms?

I like private accounts, I already have two of them. How is it not an additional tax for another government program to create them with the Social Security money though?

I looked at all the numbers for the proposals, and this extra stuff will make the money run out about six years faster than expected. Then the loser left will just expect another bailout and make my taxes that much bigger.

The 4.5 trillion dollars we need to borrow (That's what Dick Cheney admitted it would cost) will rack up tremendous amounts of interest to be paid.

I don't even want to listen to the whiners when they are old and dead broke but don't have the heart to shoot them. Maybe we could send them to France!

Posted by: Walter on February 23, 2005 09:23 PM
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