I need Kim Richards to make sense of this bit of news.

Now your quoting Fletch, too? Tierra del Fuego, wanker.

Bush ain't losing!
Period.

Big military airbase on Guam. There's your GOP vote.

If that's data from GOP-dominated areas then it doesn't say anything about the state. In the early going, only a limited number of exit-polling stations might have reported.

Guam residents do routinely vote Republican because most are associated with the military on the island. Two to one???? Don't think it is usually that high, but not unreasonable.

Bottom line. Not really definitive yet.

Subsunk

NRO said this number was bad, has Kerry +4, go check the corner

One comment about Zogby - his poll projections for the past few weeks are all on record, and several commentators have put out negative reviews of Zogby's methods.

If Bush wins the key states, Zogby might not come out of this looking very good.

Sorry for the cold water, but The Corner is now reporting the second wave of exit polling puts Kerry ahead in Ohio:

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_02_corner-archive.asp#044496

Guam vote: lots of US military there (my dad was a submariner and went there a lot) but those service folks usually are registered in some US state and vote absentee in their home state. This Guam vote is probably locals who work on the bases. I don't think they get an electoral vote, though, so what it means I don't know.

My understanding is that the Guam Republicans are slightly to the left of Fidel Castro. You don't want to know about the Democrats.

Damnit! Thanks, Barry.

I would expect Kerry's numbers to look their best at this time of day. Wait until the honest hardworking folks vote later this P.M.

Adding to what Ron says, I would think mid-day exit polls would be highly unrepresentative of the total. Who votes during the day? Unemployed people, retired people, 2nd- and 3rd-shift employees, and stay-at-home moms. I'm guessing that the first three would tend to skew Kerry, the last one Bush. I've voted during the day the last few times, and retired people are hugely overrepresented then. Last time I'm pretty sure I was the only one in the room under 60.

Of course, people who get up early and vote before going to work may well skew Bush. But did the exit polls poll them? Another group that may well skew Bush: people (like me) who tell pollsters their political opinions are nobody's damned business but their own.

Conclusions:

1. It's far too early to tell anything at all.

2. This election could go strongly Kerry, if (a) the serious situation in the world does lure millions of people to the polls who would not otherwise have felt obligated to vote, and (b) too many of the new voters haven't bothered to find out what's going on except by listening to (e.g.) broadcast news. I doubt that that's what's happening today, and suspect (hope) that this will be more like Florida 2002 or the California recall, where Jeb Bush and Schwarzenegger won far more votes than the polls predicted. We shall soon see.

I forgot two other groups of daytime voters: college faculty, who are relatively few but skew heavily towards Kerry, and college students, who are much more numerous but probably skew at least slightly towards Kerry. (When they graduate and get jobs, they'll change.) Both tend to have plenty of free periods during the day to head for the polling places.

Because of the military? Oh REEAALLY?

Guam doesn't get an electorial vote. Military stationed on Guam generally vote ABSENTEE in there home states -- just like ANY OTHER MILITARY MEMBER stationed overseas.

Been There. Done That. (But ALGORE sued to prevent my vote from counting.)

No active duty military member is going to waste their vote in a Guam local election, knowing that it won't count for their choice for Commander In Chief.

Get Real.

"His computer's off"
"Luke you've switched off your targetting computer"
"I'm all right."

"Use the force..."

Stay on Target!