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| And So This is Christmas (Politically Speaking) »
November 02, 2004
Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election DayBut then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history. Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that. On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close. posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
CommentsHe's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on... Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM
My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it. Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM
Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM
Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it? It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported. That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM
***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day*** Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :) Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM
Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know? Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM
Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap. Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM
Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one. Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM
KIU, you hit all the people voting before work. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM
So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare. Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation. Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM
Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM
Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM
I think it's important to vote early I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted. Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
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| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
WTF?! New York appeals court overturns Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction from landmark #MeToo trial And yet Donald Trump was forced to pay off a psychotic liar and rape-fantasist for libel? A "libel" that accurately called her out as a liar for lying about him raping her in a Bergdorf's elevator? With the Alvin Bragg/Letitia James' Stalinist show trials still going on? It is to laugh. And vomit [J.J. Sefton]
Anti-Trump Lincoln Project loses $35,000 after paying fake invoices sent by hackers Okay...which one of you did this? [CBD]
Entire IRGC command wing in Syria was eliminated in strike, Bloomberg reveals Lots of room for advancement in the Iranian armed forces! [CBD]
Space Ice's review of Road House (the Patrick Swayze one) is so good that you'll start doing half-naked tai chi at dawn
He calls the villain in the movie "Bob Iger." He's always making jokes about what shitholes LA, SF, and NYC are. I'm telling you, this guy is a (taps nose) Good Fella.
Critical Drinker summarizes the Warhammer "Wokehammer" controversy
Warhammer exploded in popularity (and money-making) during covid so BlackRock and Vanguard and all the other wokies decided to step in and ruin it to propagate "The Message"
Reddit rumor: Games Workshop changed the lore of Warhammer 40K because Amazon -- which infamously ruined Tolkein with Rings of (Girl) Power -- demanded that insert a female character in power armor.
There actually is a an all-female unit of "Fighting Nuns" called the Sisters of Battle. There is already-existing lore about female fighters. But according to this rumor, Amazon said that the Sisters of Battle weren't enough, they wanted female characters in the emperor's bodyguard (the Custodes). There are additional claims/speculations that Henry Cavill may walk away from the project, which I find hard to believe, because this is his dream project. He called this "the greatest professional honor of my life." He's been playing the game and reading the novels since he was 10. He is probably the wokies' greatest weapon in this fight.
86 All Agents of Control ". . . [the chaos] of elegant, natural freedom and independence [what Adam Smith referred to as 'the invisible hand'] is in direct contravention of those who have unleashed ideologically driven chaos by destroying freedom of choice in the quest to 'control' individuals as just one mass of a populace. Again, for our own good because we're too stupid and unenlightened to know what's good for us." My latest essay at Taki's Magazine. Please read and comment. [J.J. Sefton]
Biden lied yesterday about his uncle being shot down and then "eaten by cannibals" in Paupa New Guinea. He claims the "government" told him they'd found pieces of the airplane on that island and so the uncle must have been eaten by cannibals. In fact, the plane crashed into the ocean due to engine failure, and we know this as a fact, because one of the fellow crewmen survived and thus reported on the tale. No cannibals, no island crash -- it landed in the ocean, as the official reports say, so no "government" officials would secretly whisper to Biden about a cover-up about cannibals.
By the way, I saw someone note this: Why is Biden angering New Guinea with a lie about their population being cannibals? #ForeignPolicyExpertJoe
A reviewer from Tablet calls Civil War a "good movie" with "stupid politics"
The film relies on a mostly unexplained premise that a future third-term U.S. president has dissolved the FBI, turning the United States into an authoritarian state. Garland doesn't beat the audience over the head with his intentions or his politics. However, in his press tour for the film--including an advance NYC screening earlier this week I attended--he revealed that he felt no need to explain why the country broke apart. "Everyone knows," he says. Indeed, we do. Without making it explicit in the film, Garland clearly wishes to make an allusion not just to the orange man--and his all-too-familiar badness--but the much-lamented rise of "dangerous populism" across the West. Garland is subtle in how he takes sides, but he clearly aligns with the elitist interpretation of rising mass dissatisfaction as driven by the bad behavior of deplorables and their ignorant love of "disinformation."
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click, OG Rap Edition
I roam in the zone of the microphone/And I'm on the throne but I'm not alone/Got bones of steel and not of stone/I'm known to be prone and make your momma moan A little Sam Kinnison sample in there, with him screaming "Dick in your mouth all day."
Kurt Schlichter, acknowledged Expert on hypothetical American civil war scenarios, pans the boring, tendentious, silly Civil War movie
The director Alex Garland revealed he'd gone full woke in his last movie, which bombed. Apparently it's a "gender fairy tale with body horror elements," according to woke British reviewer Mark Kermode.
Bill Barr Responds to Trump Hush Money Trial: 'Abomination' He even says he'll vote for Trump! [CBD]
Ohio GOP leaders reject Democrats' plan to get President Joe Biden on November ballot
The GOP is changing into something that can fight. Slowly. From time to time. Which is an improvement.[TJM]
Maine Governor Allows National Popular Vote Legislation to Become Law "Absent a ranked-choice voting circumstance, it seems to me that the person who wins the most votes should become the President. To do otherwise seemingly runs counter to the democratic foundations of our country[.]" In other words, "I am entirely ignorant of American History and its political philosophy" [CBD]
Maher: 10/2023: "... she eventually rose to CEO of the Wikimedia Foundation and helped preside over the transformation of Wikipedia --once branded a "people's encyclopedia" -- into an information weapon wielded by the national security establishment. In 2017, Maher participated in a special event hosted by the U.S. State Department and entitled "Wikipedia in a Post-Fact World." "She currently serves on the U.S. State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Board..." Posted by: LenNeal at April 15, 2024 05:27 PM
More Twitter hottakes from the grimly dour zealot CEO of NPR, who announces proudly that she's a childless cat-lady because "the world is burning"
Candace Owens declared if women don't use their eggs, "they scramble," and that these childless leftwing AWFLs feel their maternal instincts, spurned though they are, acutely, and with no children to mother, instead insist on mothering adult strangers.
Grimwoke Future: Mark Kern (co-creator of Starcraft, Warcraft) writes that Games Workshop is wokefying its line of miniatures and the entire lore of the (very lucrative) Warhammer 40K franchise to appease BlackRock, Vanguard, and the "European equivalent of BlackRock," who collectively own 25% of their stock
Henry Cavill is developing a Warhammer TV series. This is the exact wrong time for Games Workshop to spit on its actual audience. (If there's ever a right time.) You may not think that suddenly deciding that women have always been part of the Emperor's personal bodyguard is a big deal, but a huge amount of the appeal of Warhammer is its extensive and interesting lore. The game is expensive AF and it's the lore that keeps fans dedicated to the brand. The Custodes (the bodyguards) have been repeatedly called out as all-male for decades. And now, to appease fucking Larry Fink, 40,000 years of lore are being rewritten. Recent Comments
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Lizzy[/i]: "Not to belabor this, but it boggles the mind that ..." PG: ""Johnson’s completely arbitrary trip to New ..." Bulgaroctonus: ""Bureaugamy" is the term I've seen to describe thi ..." RedMindBlueState[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "[i]"Bureaugamy" is the term I've seen to describe ..." Bulgaroctonus: "They aren't unmarried really - they are married to ..." 18-1: "[i]New Hotness: Those Israeli b#tches made it all ..." Thomas Bender: "@290 >>The Trump presidential immunity argument ..." Harvey Weinstein: "[i] Susan Sarandon couldn't hold a candle to Gwyne ..." Lizzy[/i]: "Old and Busted: BELIEVE ALL WOMEN #MEETOO New H ..." [/b][/s][/u][/i]Muldoon: "Susan Sarandon couldn't hold a candle to Gwyneth ..." Whoopi Goldberg: "[i]That's a "myth?"?!?!?[/i] Its not rape rape. ..." Bloggers in Arms
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Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
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