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Tip Thread | Main | And So This is Christmas (Politically Speaking)
November 02, 2004

Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day

But then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history.

Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that.

On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close.


posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
Comments



He's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on...

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM

My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM

Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM

Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it?

It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported.

That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today

Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM

***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day***

Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :)

Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM

Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know?

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM

Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap.

Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM

Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM

KIU, you hit all the people voting before work.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM

So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare.

Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation.

Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM

Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM

Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM

I think it's important to vote early

I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted.

Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
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