Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025
Jewells45 2025
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups





















« Tip Thread | Main | And So This is Christmas (Politically Speaking) »
November 02, 2004

Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day

But then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history.

Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that.

On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close.


posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
Comments



He's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on...

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM

My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM

Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM

Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it?

It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported.

That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today

Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM

***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day***

Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :)

Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM

Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know?

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM

Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap.

Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM

Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM

KIU, you hit all the people voting before work.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM

So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare.

Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation.

Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM

Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM

Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM

I think it's important to vote early

I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted.

Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?








Now Available!
The Deplorable Gourmet
A Horde-sourced Cookbook
[All profits go to charity]
Top Headlines
Jonathan Turley nails it: The rise and fall of John Brennan [Hat Tip: dhmosquito] [CBD]
American Eagle Outfitters has a new ad with Sidney Sweeney, and you are going to like it. [CBD]
OG Blogger Jeff Dunetz passes at age 67
I thought I told everyone to stop dying.
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: Israel protects the Druze, and Western Culture, Tulsi Gabbard is tenacious, NYC's mayoral race is a catastrophe, The Democrat Lying Machine, and more!
Are your Hot Balls ruining your health? Maybe you need to put those sad droopers on ice.
Most studies about overheated testicles look at semen production and fertility, but it also seems likely that too-hot crotch-knockers result in lowered tesosterone, too.
Ryan Long makes fun of NYC lefties for bragging that they can "handle" living amidst garbage, rats, hobos and murder while p*ssies like you just take the easy way out and move to orderly, pleasant places
At Budokan Mystery Click
Now I had heard the WACs
recruited old maids for the war
But mommy's neither one of those
I've known her all these years

Maybe I'll stop linking obscurities and start linking more crowd pleasers.
If you can stand the sight of Dan Rather, three members of the band talk about how they got famous in Japan before they ever even played in Japan. Hint: Manga.
Malcolm Jamal-Warner, the son on The Cosby Show, dies of drowning at age 54: reports
Warner was in Costa Rica on a family vacation and drowned while swimming near Cocles after allegedly being caught by a high current on Sunday afternoon. The incident occurred between 2 and 2:30 p.m. local time.
Costa Rican National Police told The Post that Warner was pulled from the water by people in the area and taken to shore, where the Costa Rica Red Cross tried to revive him but were unsuccessful in their efforts.
His body was taken to the morgue at San Joaquin de Flores for an autopsy. The cause of death is listed as asphyxiation by "submersion."
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
Hint: Chopper noises on an oscillator/synthesizer
City nights, summer breeze makes you feel all right
Neon lights, shining brightly, make your brain ignite
See the girls with the dresses so tight
Give you love Give you love if the price is right
Black or white, in the streets, there's no wrong and no right, no!
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: The economy is good, and tariffs aren't causing inflation! Is selling arms to Europe for Ukraine any better? AI spells the end of the Green Energy boondoggle, Epstein's getting boring, And ICE needs to be unleashed!
Susie Wiles brings calm to Trump admin -- helping the president rack up wins When was the last time you saw her name in the media? Is it possible that the grownups are now in charge? [CBD]
Recent Comments
clarence: "Guten morgen, horde. Looks like nothing worth c ..."

OrangeEnt: "OrangeEnt - Yes, until daylight saving time flips ..."

Pixy Misa: "OrangeEnt - Yes, until daylight saving time flips ..."

OrangeEnt: " Good morning, Rip Van Winkle! Posted by: Biden' ..."

Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, : "Pixy, have you changed your posting time? Used to ..."

Soothsayer: " Name the only state that requires All USA Flags ..."

OrangeEnt: "Pixy, have you changed your posting time? Used to ..."

Biden's Dog sniffs a whole lotta malarkey, : "BOING! ..."

OrangeEnt: "Tech thread always start late now? ..."

weft cut-loop[/i][/b] [/s]: "[i]Muslims are in a death cult. Posted by: tcn in ..."

tcn in AK: "Monsoon season. So, it rains cubic tons of water e ..."

tcn in AK: "305 Didn't even sleep 3 hours and 3 bathroom trips ..."

Bloggers in Arms
Some Humorous Asides
Archives