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November 02, 2004
Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election DayBut then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history. Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that. On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close. posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
CommentsHe's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on... Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM
My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it. Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM
Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM
Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it? It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported. That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM
***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day*** Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :) Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM
Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know? Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM
Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap. Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM
Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one. Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM
KIU, you hit all the people voting before work. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM
So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare. Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation. Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM
Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM
Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM
I think it's important to vote early I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted. Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
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What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter One day I'm gonna get that faculty together Remember that everybody has to wait in line Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine
US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.
Robert Mueller, Former Special Counsel Who Probed Trump, Dies
“robert mueller just died,” trump wrote in a truth social post on march 21. “good, i’m glad he’s dead. he can no longer hurt innocent people! president donald j. trump.”
Canadian School Designates Cafeteria And Lunchroom As "No Food Zones" For Ramadan
Canada and the UK are neck and neck in the race to become the first western country to fall to Islam [CBD] Recent Comments
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Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
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