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| And So This is Christmas (Politically Speaking) »
November 02, 2004
Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election DayBut then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history. Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that. On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close. posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
CommentsHe's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on... Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM
My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it. Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM
Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM
Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it? It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported. That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM
***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day*** Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :) Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM
Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know? Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM
Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap. Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM
Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one. Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM
KIU, you hit all the people voting before work. Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM
So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare. Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation. Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM
Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM
Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car. Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM
I think it's important to vote early I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted. Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
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From the tenacious Melanie Phillips: Blood on their hands "Canadian and British prime ministers Mark Carney and Sir Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron, praised by Hamas for denouncing Israel" [CBD]
It's Sherlock Holmes Day so I'll finally finish The Hound of the Baskervilles, I promise
Update: My kindle won't turn on. I'll try to finish it by next Sherlock Holmes Day ![]() ![]() Hyperpartisan Democrat and venomous liberal congressman Gerry Connelly has died He already announced he would not stand for re-election in 2026. His death leaves the Democrat caucus down one until/unless another Democrat is elected to fill out his term. Virginia should do what New York State did and delay this special election until... well, until the next election in 2026.
Audio of Biden's interview with special investigator Hur leaks
He's not just a confused old man with a poor memory, he's pretty much incoherent. Update: longer clip here. He just rambles and pauses and gets lost and has to be helped every sentence by either his aides or lawyers or by the investigators themselves. ![]()
Great catch: Alex Thompson claims the videos showing his co-conspirator @JakeTapper repeatedly fulminating at anyone questioning Biden's fitness are "deceptively edited."
Note that this is the exact same "cheapfake" lie used to protect Biden from video evidence of his mental infirmity.
Mark Levin goes off on "schmuck" and "little bastard" Tucker Carlson
He revives Rush Limbaugh's insult of Carlson as "Chatsworth Osbourne Jr." The dispute is over whether the term "neocon" is being used as a paper-thin euphemism for "Jew" or not. I don't know, I think maybe Levin is flying off the handle over this one thing, but there is no doubt that Chastworth Osbourne Jr. has been getting friendlier and friendlier with the "Jews Manipulate and Control Us" Unz Reader crowd.
Character actor Joe Don Baker, who was played for most of his life by Brian Dennehy, has died at age 89
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Theater Kid/D&D Club Cheese Edition
There were voices in the night-- "Don't do it!" Voices out of sight-- "Don't do it! Too many men have failed before
White smoke out of the Sistine Chapel. New pope to be presented momentarily. [TJM]
Champagne Socialism at its best!
Baier: Why did you spend $221K on private jets to your 'fighting oligarchy' rallies? ![]()
Bush official claims US built secret $21T underground 'city' for rich and powerful to live if 'near-extinction event' happens "And the bases are connected by an elaborate transportation system, she added, while claiming they are powered by a secret energy system known only to the military."
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