Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Captain Whitebread 2026
Jon Ekdahl 2026
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025
Jewells45 2025
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Texas MoMe 2026: 10/16/2026-10/17/2026 Corsicana,TX
Contact Ben Had for info





















« Tip Thread | Main | And So This is Christmas (Politically Speaking) »
November 02, 2004

Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day

But then, with the Red Sox sweeping the World Series, this may be the year of making history.

Sabato comes up with a final EV tally of 269-269-- a tie, and an election ultimately to be settled in the House of Representatives. But he seems to think Bush will be lucky to manage that.

On the other hand, if Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he says it won't even be close.


posted by Ace at 04:08 AM
Comments



He's not tied. He's ahead. The Gallup 'allocation' is total made up BS, hardly something to base this on...

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 04:10 AM

My prediction here with a little explanation. It's 4:15 A.M. where I am and I haven't been to bed yet. I'm so excited to cast my vote for Bush that I couldn't sleep. I'm gonna be the first in my district to vote this morning. I can taste it.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 05:20 AM

Same here. Too nervous to sleep. When my poll opens in an hour and a half, I'll be standing there waiting for them.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 05:39 AM

Funny how we've been hearing how "tied" it is the past few weeks even when Bush is leading out side the MoE. Couldn't be part of the overal "script" could it?

It ain't tied folks. There is the same weekend dip of Bush's numbers we see every flipping weekend (go to RealClearPolitics and check the graph.) I'm sure there is also some "rule" that the guy that hasn't led for 3 months when the incumbent has an aproval rating at 50% is toast, but we'll never see that reported.

That being said, by hook or crook get every Bush voter in your Rolodex to the polls today

Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 06:50 AM

***Bad News from Larry Sabato: No Incumbent Has Ever Won After Being Tied in the Polls Before Election Day***

Good News From Kent: Since We're Demonstrably and Concretely N-O-T ... T-I-E-D (SEE --> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/)-- that shouldn't prove too insurmountable an obstacle to victory, then. :)

Posted by: Kent on November 2, 2004 06:58 AM

Just got back from voting. I was FIRST but by the time I had deposited my punch card ballot in the box there were about thirty people in line. Is it normal to have some kind of morning rush on Votin' Day or what? Does anyone know?

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on November 2, 2004 07:31 AM

Yeah, no one has ever invaded frickin' Afghanistan before either. I put about as much faith in this one as the whole redskins/ home game crap.

Posted by: See Dubya on November 2, 2004 07:41 AM

Glad to see I'm not the only sleepless one.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on November 2, 2004 07:58 AM

KIU, you hit all the people voting before work.

Posted by: Rob on November 2, 2004 08:00 AM

So - what time of day do you guys think the lines will be the shortest??? I don't want to wait until the hubby gets home ... I think it's important to vote early - and I've got five kids. I've waited in line with three of my kids (last time) and that was bad enough ... with 5 it might be a nightmare.

Of course, it might just confuse other voters ... which in my district, would be a good thing. My own form of voter intimidation.

Posted by: Carin on November 2, 2004 08:25 AM

Carin: It's hard to tell, but I think 10, 11, or 2 would all be good times. Maybe try 10 or 11, and come back at 2 if that doesn't work. Most voters have to work 8 hours or more on Tuesdays, so the polls should be most crowded before 9, after 5, and around lunch-time, with maybe a clump of teachers between 3 and 4. You can avoid all those people by voting between 9 and 11:30 or 1:30 and 3. Of course, there will still be plenty of retired people, stay-at-home moms, 2nd- and 3rd-shift workers, and unemployed, so don't expect zero lines. I'm unemployed myself, and will head for the polls shortly. I hope they're not packed with people who thought they could vote before work and are now going to be late for work because of the crowds. The last few elections I was teaching college or part-time high school and was able to vote in the early afternoon in 5 minutes or less. This year will probably be different, since there are reports of massive turnout. Hope this helps.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 09:01 AM

Carin: At least in Baltimore County, 9:50 turned out to be an excellent time. There were lots of voters, including some with strollers, but lots of machines, too, and it took all of 9 minutes including the round trip from and to my car.

Posted by: Dr. Weevil on November 2, 2004 10:37 AM

I think it's important to vote early

I agree. Which is why I availed myself of Oregon's early voting system and cast my ballot a week ago, then called yesterday to make freaking sure it had been received. There was not damned way my vote wasn't going to be counted.

Posted by: Brian B on November 2, 2004 10:50 AM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?








Now Available!
The Deplorable Gourmet
A Horde-sourced Cookbook
[All profits go to charity]
Top Headlines
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: CBD and Jim Lakely of The Heartland Institute chat about Heartland's two recent discussions: The affordability crisis in America, and The UN retreating from their most maniacal climate projections. Along the way we talk Democrat insanity and the changing electoral map...and more!
After threatening that the "clock is ticking" for renewed strikes on Iran, Trump once again calls them off to give negotiating a chance.
I can't even cover this any more. It's embarrassing. It's like covering the endless negotiations over DHS funding. Trump is going to drag this out through the midterms and then lose them.
Note to the president: At some point, allowing the Regime to remain in power without actually forcing them to give up nukes is just a back-door, unacknowledged renewal of the Obama policy.
Well, I guess we just have to wait for their economy to collapse and their troops to desert.
Mayor Karen is so stung by fan-made AI ads that she's resorting to the shitlibs' go-to demand for an end to criticism -- these ads are "violent" and "hateful" and making me feel unsafe because one video showed AI cartoons throwing tomatoes at me and the tomatoes looked like blood when they squished
This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN?
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: Sefton and CBD are joined by Jeff Carter, candidate for NV treasurer, and seasoned finance professional, for a discussion of the issues facing Nevadans, and the larger financial challenges in America.
Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist
MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust.
Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
Posted by: Smell the Glove

I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove
Chris
@chriswithans

aaahahaa.jpg


"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Recent Comments
KT: "5 Best of Breed for The Big Dummy at today's Batt ..."

nurse ratched: "All folks who have spent time in the affected coun ..."

Aetius451AD work phone: "I have a pair of Maui Jim’s I paid $150 for ..."

Nova Local: "184 Some of my cow workers are predicting a natio ..."

Bloodthirsty Boids: "Great Blue Herons are semi-prehistoric and have a ..."

Blonde Morticia: " Some of my cow workers are predicting a nationwi ..."

Blonde Morticia: " I have a pair of Maui Jim’s I paid $150 fo ..."

Mawfugga: "This website: Shit or Garbage? You decide, Zio ..."

nurse ratched: "Blonde! Yeah. I saw that. Some of my cow work ..."

Mawfugga: "Oh NOES! "President Trump is NOT going to be ha ..."

Absolute steaming pile: "174 I got through a few eps of The Boys season two ..."

Blonde Morticia: " Lede story cbs news west coast is Ebola. Ar ..."

Bloggers in Arms
Some Humorous Asides
Archives