Gloom, shmoom. Kerry takes Virginia? The Kerry Virginia contract right now is selling for 8 cents on the dollar over at tradesports.com. Meaning that if Hoke really believes this Malokey-baloney, he should invest, say, $8,000 in buying up a few of these contracts and pocket $100,000 on election day. If he doesn't do it, he don't really believe his own schtick.
And, without the 13 Va. electoral votes, his math comes out with Bush winning. By the way, Kerry ain't carrying Nevada, either.
I agree in spirit with the concerns about possible conservative group-think. It's a close election, to be sure. Maybe fraud could tip the scales against us in Florida or Colorado. But we're not going to lose Old Dominion.

Ace, I share your sense of dread. A Kerry Presidency literally keeps me up at night, so I think that your concern is well founded. I, too, have been waiting for the knockout punch and being a Giants fan I can relate rather intimately with your analogy.

However I respectfully disagree with your conclusion. Since Sept 11th, the polls have been heavily skewed towards Democrats. The 2002 elections and the California recall. The California recall is perhaps the most apt analogy. The left went crazy over the whole mess and it was concluded on the night before the recall that not only would Grey Davis survive the recall, but that if he did lost, Bustamante would win. In the end, Californian's, against conventional wisdom, voted reasonably and sensibly for the candidate that promised vision and clear leadership. Not nuance and a lifelong pedigree of politics.

This election is a referendum on the war. Bar none. Kerry wins, we did the wrong thing; Bush wins, we did right. I can’t imagine that the voters in Ohio are going to pick Kerry with this referendum on the line. I’d be scared if the swing state were New Jersey or Pennsylvania (because of Philadelphia). Call it Republican groupthink, but I am willing to put my money on the line for this.

The polls have swung right and left (so to speak) and the one underlying theme seems to be how contextually driven they are. and, in that sense, how contextually driven the underlying sentiment of the voters may be. In that respect I am curious about the NY Times October surprise of the missing explosive-- and especially curious about the fact that the Kerry campaign was so REMARKABLY quick to capitalize on the report. Almost -- almost -- like they had been informed, before the fact. If one looks closely, there is no clear indication as to when -- or even if --the loss occured (a number of blogs are currently discussing this, and I am not an expert in even commenting on blogs, alas). My sense is that this is a coordinated strategy designed to erode Bush's aura of competence in the war on terrrorism.

I don't have any concrete data behind this, so it is just a feeling I have, but it is really hard for me to believe that Kerry will garner enough votes to beat GW. Its not just Republicans that believe this; I live in San Francisco and these people hate GW more than Hitler (I'm serious) and they think Kerry is horrible. I have been apart of many conversations with these people where they have conceded that Kerry is going to lose, but have put their hopes onto Hillary in '08.

Who knows what will happen? But, I don't think that the Republicans are going to staying home in this election. They are far more energized at this point than the Dems are with Kerry.

I too have the feeling that Kerry will win - Bush doesn't have enough of a lead to offset the many variables, all of which favor Kerry.

These variables include: cell-phone only users who have been excluded from the polls, the -yet-to-be-released October media surprise, the vote fraud, and so on.

I go into more detail here

Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I just can not see a Kerry presidency. The man is unlikeable, his wife is a crackpot and there is virtually no enthusiasm for him among the electorate. Anti-Bush sentiment us up among the Moonbats, but I don't think Kerry will inspire people to get to the polls (except for conservatives, whom, I suspect, will be voting in record numbers).

I've thought all along that Bush will win, and win by a comfortable margin of 4-5 points.

What I'm most worried about is Bush winning but the Dems stealing it through fraud.

Virginia has as much a chance of going to Kerry as I have a chance of having a passionate sexual encounter with Angelina Jolie in a Denny's restroom in Cleveland.

When you take the averages of the polls, Bush is ahead by 2-4 points. A Democrat strategist predicted that biggest bounce Kerry could get from new voters and the like is 1.5%. That's not enough to close the gap.

There's a lot of data that suggests that undecideds are swinging Bush, and the last thing we need to do is start writing the epitaph of the Bush campaign now. We all need to be out there breaking our balls (or ovaries as the case may be) to make sure Bush stays in office.

I've put my oranges where my mouth is, and they're staying there. There is no momentum for Kerry, that's unadulterated fear talking, born of the Monster echo chamber known as the MSM.

My analysis isn't based on groupthink, it's based on history - Vietnamthink is the abberation, not the rule, and didn't even happen to America until AFTER Vietnam. We're heading for the final conservative realignment that's been building for 20 years, so keep your helmet on tight or your head will snap off when the whiplash comes around.

Hoke, you better have killed that pig already, 'cause my table's set for some smokin' Virginny Ham! :-)

I have mixed feelings about this. Being in a college town in the swing state of Ohio, I'm pretty well immune from conservative group think. Pretty much everyone I know or work with is voting for Kerry. In fact, many of them would probably quit talking to me if they knew I was voting for Bush. I know one other Bush supporter here (a college professor, believe it or not). I'm generally surrounded by people who think the Swift Vets for Truth are a hate group, but Moveon.org and Michael Moore are moderate and reasonable, rather than the lying bastards that they are. So I get pretty gloomy when thinking about Bush's chances.

But then I look at the positive side, which is that most of my friends in other parts of Ohio are voting for Bush, even those who have traditionally voted Democrat. And I agree with Scout in that I can't really see Kerry being president. I can't imagine a East Coast liberal with no real legislative record to speak of and no actual policy positions other than "I'll do everything better than Bush" being elected president. I just don't think that people, other than the Bush haters, are going to be all that inspired to rush out and vote for John Kerry.

But voter fraud does worry me. Not just for this election, but there seems to be a pattern among Democrats to cry "fascism" or some such nonsense whenever anyone tries to actually enforce voter registration rules (a woman in my office called Republicans "pure evil" over the whole Ken Blackwell thing).

I've already voted (we have early voting here in Florida).

Lucky for him, Danny Devito did not attempt to get in my way.

Black

I said it before. I'll never be happier than to send you that fine ham.

But read these comments and worry.

First, the conspiracy-theorists, worried about fraud and a Kerry/NY Times dirty deal. I mean, of course there will be fraud and of course the Times is coordinating with Kerry. But we're supposed to be in a position where such actions are frivolous, par for the course. We are not.

Second, there is the emotional reliance on the mystical to which I referred--

"I just can't imagine that . . . "

"I don't have any concrete data behind this, so it is just a feeling I have . . ."

"Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I just can not see a Kerry presidency . . ."

Spooky.

Every time I read something like this I need a hug.

But in lieu of a hug, I'm perfectly willing to spit on tree and tell it to stuff its Kyoto Protocol.

Hokey, two words: California Recall

No data predicted that one. Not by a long shot. But talking to people and being on the ground gave you a better idea that people were voting in a manner that the polls weren't showing. I don't trust the polls one bit. They are all contradicting each other and it is impossible to make an empirical guess on this one. You're faith is just as strong as mine.

I once had a passionate sexual encounter with Angelina Jolie in a Denny's restroom in Cleveland.

Vietnam.

"These variables include: cell-phone only users who have been excluded from the polls, the -yet-to-be-released October media surprise, the vote fraud, and so on."

Given that young adults (cell-only users) are polling evenly split between Bush and Kerry, i can't see this as a hidden bulge for Kerry.

However, I agree with Ace that it is crucial to get every last voter to the polls.

Ace--

Since I can't post politics on my site while at work (but somehow, can get away with commenting on a website-- WTF?!), here are a few of my off-the-cuff, unformed thoughts, kind of an "open draft" for a later posting on my site. I hope you don't mind?

I'm not in the business of predictions. For one, I'm bad at them (debate relevance, anyone?). That said, I hope that Bush wins-- and yes, I will vote for him-- but knowing that we've got a 50/50 split, again, means that the coin toss could leave Kerry president.

I'm a patriotic American, and a government employee (sadly, not always synonomous). I'm positive that my job will look very different come January regardless of who wins-- Rumsfeld's gone either way; it just might take a bit longer if Bush wins.

That said, the paramount issue of our times, this war to defeat radical Islam, hinges on our choice next Tuesday.

One man will fight this war. The other-- regardless of what he says when in campaign mode--will seek to avoid it. No one wants to fight a war. But some men understand that by fighting today, on our terms, we may avoid fighting in the future, on their terms.

You'll never hear it in the media, but we were terribly fortunate 9/11 was a "Goldilocks" moment. Any less, and we wouldn't wake up to fight the war. Any worse, and we could have lost a city.

However, given receding memories, and our natural propensity towards blissful ignorance of events across foreign shores, we stand to forget why we're fighting-- so we can win on our terms, and not that of our enemy's.

For a Kerry "win" in the War on Terror would look much like the situation we found ourselves in the 1970's, 80's, and 90's. A temporary respite from a catastrophic collision with radical Islam-- a movement sure to be emboldened by our retreat.

These evil men are not the Soviets, destined to collapse in the dustbin of history. They believe they're on a mission from God, and have been fighting their war, one way or another, for over a thousand years. These men will be motivated to fight it for a thousand more, if necessary. You can't buy them off with gold-- only blood. But their appetite for blood is insatiable.

The day will soon come when technology permits these evil men to do damage to civilization far beyond their natural abilities. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the rise of fascism, and the creation of Israel unleashed this latest wave of violence. We *need* an Islamic Reformation if we have any hope to survive the next hundred years-- and if they couldn't reform on their own, well, we just have to reform them ourselves. Only victory in the war of ideologies will offer any hope of ultimate victory.

Bush isn't quite ready to fight this war, but he's made a good start. Kerry and his supporters would never even think that this war would need to be fought. He'd dismiss it as warmongering, insensitive, even racist.

Old school conservatives say, "What business is it of ours if the Arabs are ruled by democrats or dictators?" The point is, it's not our business today. But it's our business tomorrow. We simply can't take the risk that these festering regimes will continue to breed evil men with hatred in their hearts and killing on their minds. Freedom is the only proven method of ending fascism. We did it with Germany and Japan-- but those roots were shallow, while radical Islam's roots are deep. If this war will be that much harder, doesn't that mean we should fight it when we have all the advantages?

I see this at stake Tuesday. A vote for Kerry may end this war before it even began. And it will surely leave us more vulnerable the next time-- and there is always a next time.

I will support a President Kerry in wartime as strongly as I support President Bush, just as strongly as I supported President Clinton. Unlike many, I genuinely believe that politics stops at the waters edge-- qualified constructive criticism is necessary, but so is unqualified support when the sticks are down.

But, while a Kerry victory won't be the end of America, it will mean the end of the war. And that will ultimately leave America less safe, and more vulnerable to catastrophic harm in the next century.

Not so cheers,
Dave

Three words:

Hoke is wrong.

Bush being below 50% in most of the swing states is worrying, so I do agree with Hoke that we should prepare for the worst. That said, there's 8 days of working your ass off for the president, knock on some doors and literally drag Republicans to the polls.

The Scholatic kids say Bush wins. Most Americans think W will pull it out. The voter fraud crap is gonna backfire on the dems. So...

"Stay on target!"

Ace--

Ya know, I'm sorry.

I just realized I monopolized *your* comments section for my screed, and how that's nowhere near the first time I've done that.

It's a bad habit of mine, obviously.

I guess I like to think of myself as the "Stanley Kurtz in The Corner", but for Ace of Spades.

You know, the poster who simply randomly throws up postings that, while possibly informative/observant, have nothing to do with the general thrust of conversation. Thus, said poster becomes the "odd guy out."

Problem is, National Review's blog is a community blog-- and your blog is *your* blog, and I'm a schmuck for always butting in like a fat guy next to the keg (lots of experience with that one).

So. . . my apologies. I'll try to avoid being such a lousy guest in the future.

V/R,
Dave

Don't all of you get all wobbly on me now :-)

I don't know why other's haven't picked up on this yet but the 1st World series the Red Sox won last century was in 1904. This is the same year Teddy Roosevelt, A Republican won re-election. Sooo, now move time up 100 years and the Red Sox are again looking to win their first WS of this century in the year 04. Throw out those damn polls because destiny will ensure a W victory this year!

I'll rephrase my first post:

There is not a chance in hell Kerry will win the presidency. Not. A. Chance. In. Hell.

If Al Gore and Michael Dukakis were a gay couple, and somehow conceived a child between the two of them, that child would be John Fucking Kerry. He's a whore, a stiff, a pansy. He's a humorless effete snob, and he dresses like Thurston Howell III. But all of that doesn't even matter. The fact is, the American people will not -- will never -- allow Terezzza Heinz to be the first lady. She's just that awful.

Never fear. It will all work out just fine.

Polls are meaningless, and yet you consistently latch onto the latest one that shows Bush trailing Kerry by a point or less (which you won't find anymore) and raise it on a pedestal, "further proof Bush is doomed," despite all the positive polls, the economy, or other indicators. You're a good guy, but damn, you really seem to be struggling to find a reason why Bush will lose this election.

I understand your POV, Hoke. But understand this: you're reading a lot of anecdotal evidence up there, including bad polling data. Even Yahudit trying to dispute you says in a comment that the young (aka cell phone users) are polling evenly, which isn't true - they will vote in numbers we haven't seen in a generation (mainly because then it was a different generation) and they will vote Republican - SHOCKING the establishment Left. Why? Say it with me: "The Roe Effect". (If you don't know what that is, read back issues of Taranto.) All signs point right, if you're reading history and not fickle polls.

Kill the pig, Hoke. Kill the pig.

Ace of Spades nailed it.

"Vote. I keep saying this because I know that a little bit less than half of the readers of this site could vote, but won't. They'll be very interested in the election's outcome, but not quite so interested as to rouse themselves to take a trip to the local firehouse."

All the time, people see terrible things on TV: murder here, massacre there, ecological devastation in some other place. And the watchers of the boob tubes, or now the chatterers in cybersapace, disapprove, or only a little better they post something saying in effect: "boo!" And "yay the good guys." And they feel they are moral, because they've taken the right side.

*But in reality they haven't done a thing.*

Very often we do nothing because we see stuff we can't affect. And so empty moral self-congratulation combined with passivity becomes a deadly habit.

But crunch time has arrived. All legally qualified voters should vote. Get out there. Help others too to vote for what you think is right.

Everything else is meaningless self-indulgence.

Oops. Previous post by me.

Since I'm posting again anyway, I think I'll recall my favourite saint, as I may do a lot in the near future.

Joan of Arc had second sight, or revelations, or something seriously spooky going for her. And so people looked to her to tell them: will we win this battle today, will we lose it, what is going to happen Joan? And what she had to say to them, over and over, was: victory is in your own hands! Follow me, and hit the enemy!

The age is all changed and people look to new prophets, new oracles: Zogby, Rasmussen, Gallup.

But Joan is still right, and Joan will always be right. Act!

Kerry, win Nevada? Ha! Don't make me laugh. Between NV and VA (another lock for W), Kerry is going down. I will admit at times I'm a bit nervous about the situation, mostly when I hear from some of my liberal friends and family who have totally bought into the MSM blather about Bush being evil/Hitler etc. I'm a Nevada voter and my absentee ballot was sent in a week ago.