Polls: Bush Up Nationally, Trails in Ohio, But Can Capture Three Gore States for Win

Ohio remains the key. If Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he wins. It's that simple.

If he loses Ohio, he could still win, but he'd have to draw to pick up the straight.

Time now shows a 5 point Bush lead. Gone are the heady days of double-digit leads, but a lead is still a lead. 51% Bush, 46% Kerry-- and, unless my math has gotten very bad indeed, it seems to me that no number of "undecideds breaking for the challenger" can beat a man who's getting a majority of the decided vote.

Now, I still believe that anyone who wins the popular vote by 4 points or more pretty much must win the electoral college. (Alarming News disagrees, but why should we listen to her? She's merely some sort of campaign official for some important Republican candidate.) But I guess that rule might break down when a particularly important state is heading in a direction contrary to what might be expected.

In any other year, if the Republican is ahead by 3 or 4 points, the Republican wins Ohio, easily. But Ohio has been particularly hurt by the recession and slow job creation of much of the recovery. And Ohio just might go to Kerry.

This Washington Times reports on Bush's strength in Gore states Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and even Minnesota. Bush can afford to lose Ohio-- barely. Just barely.

Gotta win Ohio, though. If we lose Ohio, we're in for a very long night, and worse yet, one that probably won't have a happy ending.