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« US Bags Senior Leader of Al Zarqawi Cell | Main | MSM Admission: Tenet Did Not Call Iraq War "Wrong" »
October 23, 2004

Polls: Bush Up Nationally, Trails in Ohio, But Can Capture Three Gore States for Win

Ohio remains the key. If Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he wins. It's that simple.

If he loses Ohio, he could still win, but he'd have to draw to pick up the straight.

Time now shows a 5 point Bush lead. Gone are the heady days of double-digit leads, but a lead is still a lead. 51% Bush, 46% Kerry-- and, unless my math has gotten very bad indeed, it seems to me that no number of "undecideds breaking for the challenger" can beat a man who's getting a majority of the decided vote.

Now, I still believe that anyone who wins the popular vote by 4 points or more pretty much must win the electoral college. (Alarming News disagrees, but why should we listen to her? She's merely some sort of campaign official for some important Republican candidate.) But I guess that rule might break down when a particularly important state is heading in a direction contrary to what might be expected.

In any other year, if the Republican is ahead by 3 or 4 points, the Republican wins Ohio, easily. But Ohio has been particularly hurt by the recession and slow job creation of much of the recovery. And Ohio just might go to Kerry.

This Washington Times reports on Bush's strength in Gore states Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and even Minnesota. Bush can afford to lose Ohio-- barely. Just barely.

Gotta win Ohio, though. If we lose Ohio, we're in for a very long night, and worse yet, one that probably won't have a happy ending.


posted by Ace at 01:40 PM
Comments



Bob Taft, the incredibly unpopular Republican governor in Ohio, is the real cause of Bush's dragging numbers in that state.

Posted by: Larry Jones on October 23, 2004 02:25 PM

Jersey returns come in early. If Bush wins Jersey, I pop open the champagne immediately.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 23, 2004 02:37 PM

Stop panicking.Ohio is not essential even though I would be surprised if Bush lost it.
All that has to happen,given no other losses from 2000,is to win 1(1 only) of Win,Minn,OR Iowa+New Mexico.
If he is winning the popular vote by 2-3 points,those votes have to occurring elsewhere than Ohio so the odds are VERY VERY GOOD.

Posted by: dougf on October 23, 2004 04:05 PM

Listen to Joe - he's a really smart guy.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 23, 2004 06:03 PM
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