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October 23, 2004
Polls: Bush Up Nationally, Trails in Ohio, But Can Capture Three Gore States for WinOhio remains the key. If Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he wins. It's that simple. If he loses Ohio, he could still win, but he'd have to draw to pick up the straight. Time now shows a 5 point Bush lead. Gone are the heady days of double-digit leads, but a lead is still a lead. 51% Bush, 46% Kerry-- and, unless my math has gotten very bad indeed, it seems to me that no number of "undecideds breaking for the challenger" can beat a man who's getting a majority of the decided vote. Now, I still believe that anyone who wins the popular vote by 4 points or more pretty much must win the electoral college. (Alarming News disagrees, but why should we listen to her? She's merely some sort of campaign official for some important Republican candidate.) But I guess that rule might break down when a particularly important state is heading in a direction contrary to what might be expected. In any other year, if the Republican is ahead by 3 or 4 points, the Republican wins Ohio, easily. But Ohio has been particularly hurt by the recession and slow job creation of much of the recovery. And Ohio just might go to Kerry. This Washington Times reports on Bush's strength in Gore states Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and even Minnesota. Bush can afford to lose Ohio-- barely. Just barely. Gotta win Ohio, though. If we lose Ohio, we're in for a very long night, and worse yet, one that probably won't have a happy ending. posted by Ace at 01:40 PM
CommentsBob Taft, the incredibly unpopular Republican governor in Ohio, is the real cause of Bush's dragging numbers in that state. Posted by: Larry Jones on October 23, 2004 02:25 PM
Jersey returns come in early. If Bush wins Jersey, I pop open the champagne immediately. Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 23, 2004 02:37 PM
Stop panicking.Ohio is not essential even though I would be surprised if Bush lost it. Posted by: dougf on October 23, 2004 04:05 PM
Listen to Joe - he's a really smart guy. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 23, 2004 06:03 PM
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Mary Margaret Olohan
Oof. Reviewers do not like Scary Movie 6. The criticism I keep hearing is that the movie mistakes a reference for an actual joke. The movie (they say) keeps Key Jangling a reference to another movie (or some other pop culture ephemera) and you expect there to be a joke but nope, the Key Jangle was the joke. Other reviewers say that the promise that "no lines will be uncrossed" is a fake-out, and that the movie is bland and inoffensively corporate.
Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.
One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews. Henry Rosoff Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING! I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!
Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:
Sahil Kapur I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into." Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign. And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life: ![]()
Funny -- if you don't mind clicking on TikTok. "Amy.Pranks.22" set up an AI scam-call screener which replies to a foreign scammer trying to get her bank information with Trumpian bluster. This might be fake because I don't see how a program can respond in real time, but it's funny.
Food Thread Pizza Dough Recipe
The ULA rocket just launched
Thanks to Joyenz The rocket's enormous engines are fueled by "the volcanic heterosexual lust between James Talarico and his Neighbor With a Uterus 'girlfriend'" I hope Amazon's rocket works better than the Amazon Prime app does as far as allowing people to watch the black and white version of "Spider-Noir" From the CA Post: Thanks to beckster
Just like "Spartacus" Corey Booker, now that James Talarico is running for a higher office, he unveils his previously-unknown "girlfriend" and hooboy, it just so happens she used to work for him, and, get this, likes to "dance the night away" at gay bars
Gee I wonder where they might have met Oh and she's a vegan When Corey Booker needed a "girlfriend," he conjured up known LGBTQ activist Rosario Dawson. How convenient that when these guys need a girlfriend to show off to the normies that just happen to find an activist with a strong history of and interest in Supporting Gay Men But seriously, this James Talarico romance with a Neighbor with a Uterus is a love story for the ages. The passion of their lovemaking is hotter than a blue star with a core of Primordial Sex Atoms created in the Big Bang
And just like that, #PunchANazi became Punch a Ballot for a Nazi
"Teen" charged with five counts of attempted murder after attempting to run down police officers with his car in yet another "teen takeover" permitted by woke racist incompetent Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson
Johnson's response to the "teen takeovers" of streets and businesses that he refuses to make arrests to stop is to go after social media companies for not deleting messages to coordinate the "teen takeovers." Um, they're supposed to find these messages and delete them in real time? It makes no sense but he has to offer an "alternative" plan to just arresting lawbreakers -- which he absolutely refuses to do, saying we "can't arrest our way out" of rampant crime. Recent Comments
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