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October 17, 2004

CNNGallup Shock: Bush Back Up by 8

Zogby and Newsweek weren't just noise. Bush's weak first debate performance cost him, but not as much as it first seemed. I'm a little surprised -- I thought Bush was toast, to be honest with you -- but the public does seem to have sort of settled on him for re-election (if just by a little bit).

I did not see this one coming.

Coming Soon! Andrew Sullivan explains how the "internals" all look amazing for Kerry! Eagles up, South Park Republicans!

posted by Ace at 01:46 PM

Comments

'I did not see this one coming '----Ace

The nice thing about the internet is that you can be 'petty' and it almost never seems out of place.

I saw this one coming.

Kerry is UN-ELECTABLE except in the various 'asylums'scattered around the nation.I don't know if this poll is accurate but you can SEE the desperation in the Dems campaign.Kerry 'won' the debates,but I saw a great piece on the BBC(REALLY!!),wherein they showed a focus group after the last debate.When asked who'won'virtually everyone picked J*K,but when asked who they were voting for,the OVERWHELMING majority went firmly for Bush.Kerry got 3.5 votes(1 lady said that she would vote for Kerry only 'if I had to'.
The reason advanced by the pollster --- " They know that Bush is not as articulate,BUT they believe that 'he believes',and that is good enough for them.
Exactly.

Posted by: dougf on October 17, 2004 02:07 PM

After the 1st debate, when Kerry was up by one or two points, the media here in Europe went into a frenzy. For more then a week they parroted the news...i wonder if they will say something about this?

Posted by: madne0 on October 17, 2004 02:12 PM

Don't get nervous when Rasmussen and Zogby get closer on Monday and Tuesday. That's just noise from the weekend effect where Dems poll higher on Fridays and Saturdays. But expect to see the press highlight the "mo" toward Kerry from this easily identifiable pattern.

I'm just saying...

Posted by: Birkel on October 17, 2004 02:51 PM

It is encouraging news but I hope no one gets lazy and decides in any state that their vote doesnt matter any more...it matters now more than ever. Let's not get complacent about this news!!!

Posted by: Paul on October 17, 2004 02:53 PM

You are killing me! There's still 2 weeks left. Anything can happen. A wild attack on an American city that Kerry actually handles well ('we tried it the president's way, and we're still having attacks, let's try it my way'), something worse than we've been seeing in Iraq, or a market crash. Or, Kerry can find something dirty on Bush and release it 2 days before the election. Or, the 527s can be more effective that we can imagine in getting out the vote. Be happy about the poll numbers but pleeeeeeeeeease stop saying how Bush is such a lock.

Posted by: Karol on October 17, 2004 02:53 PM

Dead people, illegal immigrants and people with multiple aliases don't show up in polls. If you want Bush to win I suggest you sign up for the 72 hour program and volunteer as a poll watcher or voter caller on Nov. 2nd. Take days off if you have to. The dems are going to cheat big this year.

Posted by: Paul B. on October 17, 2004 03:09 PM

"Stay on Target!"

Posted by: Iblis on October 17, 2004 03:44 PM

Iblis: just what I was going to say.

I wonder if Ace was the other guy in the theater killing himself laughing during "Team America"'s cantina scene.

Posted by: someone on October 17, 2004 04:09 PM

That's the problem with following the media's lead and scoring a debate like a boxing match. It's not.

In 2000, Gore was widely perceived to have "won" the debates but the memorable parts about his antics and "lockboxes" ultimately cost him. So what was memorable about the debates?

- "Global test"
- "Mary Cheney"
- "marrying up"

The media can claim Kerry won the debates all they want. The conventional wisdom before the debates was that Bush needed to get through them without a major gaffe: he did, and Kerry didn't.

For once, it looks like the conventional wisdom might have been wise after all.

Posted by: Jim B on October 17, 2004 04:21 PM

Zogby is already claiming that Kerry has cut Bush's lead from 4 to 2. CNN isn't even touting their poll on their own web site. I personally like the realclearpolitics.com approach. Take all them polls done in a certain time frame and average them. I would suspect that it would give you a less biased view with a smaller margin of error. They show Bush +3.8.

Posted by: Steve L. on October 17, 2004 04:34 PM

I was thinking more of, "Don't get cocky, kid!" Must be my inner Solo coming through. :-)

And remember what followed soon after that: "That's the only explanation for the ease of our escape."

Is this blog bugged?

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 17, 2004 04:37 PM

Instapundit links to a new Stephen Denbeste article about the polls where he overlays color bars to show the overall trends, which clearly show both candidates creeping up, but Bush more sharply than Kerry and the trends are very consistent over the past several months. From his engineering background, he states that there are two possible reasons for the "noise", or the large ups and downs: Bad sampling equipment (impossible with a poll) or Fraud. Want to guess which it is? And the big reason the Dems are crapping their pants right now? They are loosing. And they are loosing more and more as we get closer to the elections.

Posted by: Dacotti on October 17, 2004 04:55 PM

Kerry's internals? I suspect Kerry's "internals" got flushed down the john after that poll came out.

Posted by: Dan on October 17, 2004 05:04 PM

Jim B, Re: memorable moments.

Got wood?

(anyone selling that on t-shirts yet?)

Posted by: SomeJoe on October 17, 2004 05:39 PM

Ace-

Guess the debates really *were* a wash after all ;-).

Hey pal, bully on you for the great poll coverage, you're my first stop. Okay, my second stop, after Drudge. But you're kicking ass.

BTW, did you know that Pierre Salinger was killed by a missile?

http://garfieldridge.blogspot.com/2004/10/was-pierre-salinger-killed-by-surface.html

Cheers,
Dave

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on October 17, 2004 05:48 PM

As much as we want to believe that Bush has turned the corner, we can't lose sight of Ohio. Does Rove have a viable plan to capture the Buckeye state? And Florida's not out of the woods either. Let us pray. Or better still, let Rove & Co. prey.

Posted by: wdennis on October 17, 2004 05:50 PM

Newsweek polls are always noise and should always been ignored.

Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen, Ipsos-Reid, Mason-Dixon, and one or two others--these are legit. Newsweek's one of those outfits that gives polling a bad name.

Posted by: Dean Esmay on October 17, 2004 07:23 PM

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Top Headlines

TJM definitively ranks the films of David Lean

Mayor Karen is so stung by fan-made AI ads that she's resorting to the shitlibs' go-to demand for an end to criticism -- these ads are "violent" and "hateful" and making me feel unsafe because one video showed AI cartoons throwing tomatoes at me and the tomatoes looked like blood when they squished
This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN?

Podcast: Sefton and CBD are joined by Jeff Carter, candidate for NV treasurer, and seasoned finance professional, for a discussion of the issues facing Nevadans, and the larger financial challenges in America.

TJM explores the movies of David Lean, director of Lawrence of Arabia

Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist
MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust.

Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
Posted by: Smell the Glove

I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove

Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]