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October 08, 2004
September Jobs: Only 96,000Another month of growth, but of the disappointing kind. On the other hand, the March-to-March figures were revised upwards by 236,000: Labor also said that, according to preliminary estimates, the economy added about 236,000 more jobs than previously thought in the year ended March 2004 and it will incorporate the change into benchmark revisions it issues next February. A better number than 913,000, to be sure. But since Kerry and the Democrats continue to allege over a million jobs lost, don't expect them to also revise their numbers. posted by Ace at 08:37 AM
CommentsNo cowbell worthy performance, but not bad. I just hope Kerry goes with the 1.7 million job loss figure and Bush says "Senator Kerry, we've been through a rough patch and the terrorists struck a mighty blow against us but you've just demonstrated an inability to tell Americans the truth. You undercounted 1.2 million jobs that have been created. In the last year alone nearly 2 million jobs have been created. Most of our job losses are directly attributable to September 11 and those terrorists are still out there plotting but our Marines and the newly-trained Iraqi forces are killing them in Iraq instead of over here. As long as we continue to be vigilant and carry the fight to the enemy instead of acting defensively we'll be able to grow our economy. And with states like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya (where no shot was fired) no longer supporting terror, Mr. Senator, we will be able to concentrate our efforts on fortifying the homeland while creating areas of peace and prosperity where none have existed. We have partners overseas like PM Howard of Australia, PM Blair of England, PM Allawi of Iraq and PM Karzai in Afghanistan who continue to offer their support in furthering democracy abroad so the roots of terrorism have no soil from which to plant their seeds of destruction. As we continue to fight the murderous thugs of al Queda and other terrorist organization, sir, our businesses will be able to plan in a less risky world, to hire new employees and to provide benefits to them. But only with peace and prosperity will that cause be possible. Only through a strong foreign policy will we be able to have security and jobs here at home--for the good of all Americans." Not necessarily those words--of course--but tying jobs, peace, prosperity and the fight overseas (through coalitions) together so Kerry's attacks are blunted. But, I don't expect Bush to be able to say anything close to this. Posted by: Birkel on October 8, 2004 09:22 AM
No footnotes nor consideration given for the temporary losses incurred due to various hurricane damages, I see. Apparently, that would be too realistic. Posted by: recon on October 8, 2004 10:24 AM
Hey, don't forget either that this is still based on the payroll survey, which is essentially a list of all major layoffs minus whatever the big companies add back. Remember that little admission a few months ago that tax revenues exceeded expectations? How do you suppose that happened with so many jobs lost? The bottom line is that it is impossible for lower tax rates to yield higher tax revenues unless A) people are making a lot more money (possible) or B) more of them are working than expected. The Pres HAS to hammer on the unemployment rate. It is as good or better than at any time in the "Clinton Gore economy." Plus, the household survey, you know, where they actually ask people if they have a job, is showing that more Americans are working now than ever before in history. Posted by: Dacotti on October 8, 2004 10:29 AM
The payroll survey is worthless. The household survey shows 2 million jobs gained. Posted by: Matthew Cromer on October 8, 2004 11:05 AM
Another thing that has not been brought up relative to Kerry's comments about Bush'd job creation performance vis-a-vis Hoover in 1932... Just looked this up on Information Please.... The labor force (employable) in 1932 was approximately 50 million. Today the labor force (employable) is 150 million. So, all these figures being reported today are based on a population 3 times the size it was in 1932 when Hoover was up for re-election. This just proves how ridiculous this comparison is that Kerry keeps making. Posted by: Gary Lewis on October 8, 2004 11:13 AM
The Fed and private economists now hold the Household survey to be a relatively worthless measure because of flaws in population sampling methodology and projecting it onto the larger population. It also suffers from bias - as studies have shown - families tend to say certain family members are "gainfully employed" when they are not, out of pride. The Bureau of Labor Statistics knows they need a new tool to replace the Household Survey, in light of the new "flex economy" - but they don't have it yet. In the meantime they too discount the Survey as not being very meaningful in tracking job creation, despite White House fans who regularly pressure and agitate using the stats to jack the jobs created numbers up - proving "trickle-down" works. Since Hoovers time, the traditional way to create jobs is infrastructure improvements using deficit spending during recessions and recession recoverys. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy started as a way to fairly return surplus dollars according to whose extra tax dollars generated the surplus. But when the gov't went deep in the red, supply side ideologues argued that borrowed money from China was best given to the wealthy to keep the "tax cuts" going despite revenue shortfalls - since rich people would then invest in new industry and create jobs. Well, they did invest some, in China and India factories to create jobs there, and banked the rest. After 4 years, and 1.8 trillion dollars borrowed - 480 million to fund the "tax cuts" - The results are obvious to all but the blind. In the meantime, the need for America to invest 87 billion in fixing highway bottlenecks causing 336 billion in lost productivity went unaddressed. 50 billion in broadband to keep up with Europe and Asia - unaddressed. R&D for basic and applied sciences, flat. The need to put 30 billion into bridge, port improvements and repairs went unaddressed. We know from past infrastructure improvement strategies that 50,000 dollars creates 3 jobs - using the economic multiplier. The money goes to the worst off areas - that have lost jobs from bad infrastructure. Instead of building McMansions for the wealthy and plumping up their portfolios - borrowed gov't money going into work projects - going on 50K divided into 120 billion in yearly "tax cuts", would have created 2.4(X3) - 7.2 million jobs. And, the improvements done create long term competative advantage. Well, I had my hopes that tax cuts would work despite all the warnings...but they didn't...and we have to face a failed "trickle down" strategy based on the results. Money flowing mainly to the wealthiest in California, New York City, Texas, Mass and Florida don't help the country as a whole because the rich seek the righest return for their money - and that is overseas or in expanding their mansions. Posted by: Cedarford on October 8, 2004 11:44 AM
The underlying reasons for unemployment are contained within Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report. (see: stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm) - people with less than a high school education have an unemployment rate of 8.8% - high school graduates with no college have an unemployment rate of 4.8% - people with some college have an unemployment rate of 4.0% - those with a bachelor's degree or higher have an unemployment rate of 2.6%. There are jobs in our economy but not for those lacking appropriate education. Dick Lepre Posted by: Dick Lepre on October 8, 2004 12:58 PM
Birkel, you left out Pakistan. In 2001 Pakistan and India were both aggregating armies on the borders, inciting cross-border incursions, and otherwise not contributing to the peace. That we are where we are with Pakistan (recognizing it isn't Sweden) is a flippin miracle - so the list is Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Pakistan joining the coalition of the reasonably sane. Posted by: Al on October 8, 2004 05:34 PM
That's odd, I was listening to NPR today and the only revision they mentioned was that the August numbers were revised down. Why wouldn't they have mentioned a revision up of the year long figures? ...he asked sarcastically... Posted by: Charlie on October 8, 2004 09:57 PM
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In more marketing for Project Hail Mary, scientists say they've found the biosigns indicating life growing on an alien planet. It's not proof, just signatures of chemicals that are produced by biological metabolism, and it could be nothing, but scientists think it's a strong sign that this planet is inhabited by something.
In a paper published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, a team of scientists announced the detection of dimethyl sulfide (along with a similar detection of dimethyl disulfide) in the atmosphere of an exoplanet called K2-18b. This is actually the second detection of dimethyl sulfide made on this planet, following a tentative detection in 2023. He means they tried to prove the signal was caused by things other than dimethyl sulfide but they could not.
Artemis moon shot a go, scheduled for 6:24 Eastern time tonight
Great marketing arranged by Amazon to promote Project Hail Mary. Okay not really but it does work out that way.
What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter One day I'm gonna get that faculty together Remember that everybody has to wait in line Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine
US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data. Recent Comments
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