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October 05, 2004

FoxNews Poll: Bush By Three (or Two, W/Nader)

Not as bad as I had feared.

And this is interesting: It appears that, at least in this poll, Bush has actually increased his lead over Kerry since the before the debate.

My powers of prognostication are pretty weak, I'm realizing. I'll stick to making D&D jokes and Star Wars references.

Update: Scan down to the breakdown for question 3.

Bush is beating Kerry among Independent LV's 50-39.

That's up from a 39-36 split in the last FoxNews poll.

Wow.

Now, that's such a huge move that I suspect it's mostly wrong-- bad sample, etc. But I don't think it's completely wrong. Some of that movement must be real.

Thanks to ConservativePoet.


posted by Ace at 03:31 PM
Comments



You're correct especially if you look at the ABC/Post and Pew polls. Check out how the independent broke in Fox's poll. It's a huge move toward Bush making me think even this poll is weighted toward Democrats. Pew research has discovered that Kerry has lost 10% of the black vote while Bush seems to have picked them up.

Posted by: conservativepoet on October 5, 2004 03:53 PM

Ace, have you seen these poll numbers yet?

Posted by: Rob on October 5, 2004 04:48 PM

What the fuck? Did I read that correctly? Bush's lead *diminishes* when Nader is included?!?

Posted by: Barry N. Johnson on October 5, 2004 05:46 PM

Yeah, Barry, that's pretty goddamned Twilight Zone.

Posted by: zetetic on October 5, 2004 06:29 PM

And that my dear colleagues is the typical behavior of Moonbatus Americanus.

Posted by: Iblis on October 5, 2004 06:58 PM

All of the polls that showed a big gain for Kerry had shall we say "adjustments" to the ratio of Democrats to Republicans polled. What the Kerry camp should be horrified about is that despite a massive skewing of the sample base, he ONLY gained a fraction of what he should have. This means that he is actually LOOSING support, not gaining it. The polls that have kept their ratios the same have had zero movement. The race is not tightening; far from it. Despite the full court press of the DNC, the Kerry campaign, and the MSM, they have not made a dent in Kerry's support other than the one they created with skewed statistics. Meanwhile, Kerry continues to spend a fortune on ads in Washington state where he should be just hitting fundraisers and has given up in the actual battleground states. Hewitt is dead on in his assessment that Kerry is crumbling.

Posted by: Dacotti on October 5, 2004 07:33 PM

All the handwringing after the first debate was totally premature. Bush could have done better, but he didn't bomb. Moreover, Kerry made some real gaffes and Bush did not.

The Newsweek and Gallup poll sampled over the weekend, which I have heard tends to oversample Dems. That is why they showed such a shift, not because of Kerry's performance.

Posted by: Palooka on October 5, 2004 11:55 PM

Poet,

He picked up another 10%? As in he expects 20%?

Posted by: Palooka on October 6, 2004 12:00 AM
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