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Those of you who are longtime Not Watchers of Stephen Colbert will not enjoy this flashback of Colbert dancing with Chuck Schumer while wearing ostentatious covid masks

Rush Limbaugh was an innovator in so many ways, including being among the first to not watch Stephen Colbert

DNI Tulsi Gabbard tenders her resignation for June 30, says her husband has been diagnosed with a rare bone cancer and she will have to help him through this

TJM definitively ranks the films of Sam Peckinpah.

Podcast: CBD and Jim Lakely of The Heartland Institute chat about Heartland's two recent discussions: The affordability crisis in America, and The UN retreating from their most maniacal climate projections. Along the way we talk Democrat insanity and the changing electoral map...and more!

TJM discusses the violence of Sam Peckinpah.

After threatening that the "clock is ticking" for renewed strikes on Iran, Trump once again calls them off to give negotiating a chance.
I can't even cover this any more. It's embarrassing. It's like covering the endless negotiations over DHS funding. Trump is going to drag this out through the midterms and then lose them.
Note to the president: At some point, allowing the Regime to remain in power without actually forcing them to give up nukes is just a back-door, unacknowledged renewal of the Obama policy.
Well, I guess we just have to wait for their economy to collapse and their troops to desert.

TJM definitively ranks the films of David Lean

Mayor Karen is so stung by fan-made AI ads that she's resorting to the shitlibs' go-to demand for an end to criticism -- these ads are "violent" and "hateful" and making me feel unsafe because one video showed AI cartoons throwing tomatoes at me and the tomatoes looked like blood when they squished
This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN?

Podcast: Sefton and CBD are joined by Jeff Carter, candidate for NV treasurer, and seasoned finance professional, for a discussion of the issues facing Nevadans, and the larger financial challenges in America.

TJM explores the movies of David Lean, director of Lawrence of Arabia

Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist
MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust.

Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
Posted by: Smell the Glove

I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove

Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

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And, just in time to confirm ACE's judgement (though ACE is NOT pessimistic!!)......

The first poll conducted entirely after the debate was NJ, which has moved from toss-up to 50-42 Kerry.

Another "ethnic" poll also shows Jews are staying loyally Democratic, yet again. 68-21%. Despite Bush's all but declaring Israel as beloved in his heart as Texas, and his tax cuts for the wealthy.

Catholic Hispanics are siding with Kerry by 65% to just 17% for Bush. Which is close to Alan Keye's numbers against Barack Obama.

Ace, while I agree with you as a practical matter, there are conditions where your logic goes flying out the window. It's possible for there to be a surge in support for one candidate in states that aren't going to change sides anyway (e.g. solidly Kerry to rabidly Kerry or Rabidly Bush to merely Leaning Bush), making it appear as though that candidate is doing better when nothing has changed. We don't see this very much anymore because the states are a lot more homogeneous today than at anytime in the past, which means a national poll can generally sense a real shift within the states as a whole. But it's still theoretically possible that something can affect voters on a regional basis (wavering Kerry voters in the Bluest Gore states turning solid, for instance), making the national poll a load of bunk.

I disagree. New York and California have a ton of people yet no matter what percentage of the state votes Kerry, the electoral vote stays the same. So, Kerry can be winning by a lot in NY and Bush can win by a little in Pennsylvania or Ohio and Bush would win the election.

Karol,

You're talking about something that could happen, theoretically, but doesn't.

It could happen that all of New York and California vote for Kerry, giving him a big national vote lead, while he loses every other state.

It doesn't happen, though. There are soft voters everywhere, and they turn based on the same things.

New Jersey, a one-point state a week ago, is now either a five- or eight-point race. As soon as Kerry's national numbers got better, he gained a healthy lead in NJ. Because they're linked.

In a country of 300 million, polling some 3000 nationally and making judgements based on this, especially since we don't have national elections, is a poor idea. Most of NY and CA will vote for Kerry and it will give his popular vote numbers a boost. But, it's not what gets someone elected.


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Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups NoVaMoMe 2026: 06/20/2026 Arlington VA Contact Bluebell/Weasel for info Texas MoMe 2026: 10/16/2026-10/17/2026 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« Yes, Virginia, There Are Democratic Bush Voters \| Main \| LLM Needs to Accept the "New Normal" of "Ankle-Biters" » October 04, 2004 "But What About the Electoral College?" A lot of people seem to think that Bush is doing better in the electoral college, or state by state polling, than the national polling. That's wrong. National sentiment is made up, after all, of the sentiment within each state. When Bush does well in the national polls, he also does well in the state polls, and vice versa, and contrariwise. They're all linked-- they all have a high degree of correlation. Indeed, one can pretty much determine how many electoral votes a candidate will get based on his share of the national vote. Bush, for example, might squeak a 10 electoral vote victory if up by 1 or 2 points nationally, but if up by 3, he'd win by 30 EV's, etc. So, why do the state by state polls and electoral college counts look better for Bush right now? Well, easy-- because no one's done any state polls since the debate. It takes time to poll all those 16-20 battleground states, plus states that had seemed like battlegrounds lately, such as NJ. You can point to the state polls but, alas, those are all old numbers. Pointing to the state polls is like noting that Green Bay was ahead of New York yesterday for a while. It's true, but it's dated, and it's irrelevant. This doesn't mean that Kerry's going to win, just like it didn't mean that Bush was going to win when he was ahead. It does mean, however, that Bush no longer has the advantage. He could get that advantage back, etc., but at the moment, it's tied, with momentum in Kerry's favor. posted by Ace at 10:48 AM Comments And, just in time to confirm ACE's judgement (though ACE is NOT pessimistic!!)...... The first poll conducted entirely after the debate was NJ, which has moved from toss-up to 50-42 Kerry. Another "ethnic" poll also shows Jews are staying loyally Democratic, yet again. 68-21%. Despite Bush's all but declaring Israel as beloved in his heart as Texas, and his tax cuts for the wealthy. Catholic Hispanics are siding with Kerry by 65% to just 17% for Bush. Which is close to Alan Keye's numbers against Barack Obama. Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 12:01 PM Ace, while I agree with you as a practical matter, there are conditions where your logic goes flying out the window. It's possible for there to be a surge in support for one candidate in states that aren't going to change sides anyway (e.g. solidly Kerry to rabidly Kerry or Rabidly Bush to merely Leaning Bush), making it appear as though that candidate is doing better when nothing has changed. We don't see this very much anymore because the states are a lot more homogeneous today than at anytime in the past, which means a national poll can generally sense a real shift within the states as a whole. But it's still theoretically possible that something can affect voters on a regional basis (wavering Kerry voters in the Bluest Gore states turning solid, for instance), making the national poll a load of bunk. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 4, 2004 12:26 PM I disagree. New York and California have a ton of people yet no matter what percentage of the state votes Kerry, the electoral vote stays the same. So, Kerry can be winning by a lot in NY and Bush can win by a little in Pennsylvania or Ohio and Bush would win the election. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 04:29 PM Karol, You're talking about something that could happen, theoretically, but doesn't. It could happen that all of New York and California vote for Kerry, giving him a big national vote lead, while he loses every other state. It doesn't happen, though. There are soft voters everywhere, and they turn based on the same things. New Jersey, a one-point state a week ago, is now either a five- or eight-point race. As soon as Kerry's national numbers got better, he gained a healthy lead in NJ. Because they're linked. Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 04:39 PM In a country of 300 million, polling some 3000 nationally and making judgements based on this, especially since we don't have national elections, is a poor idea. Most of NY and CA will vote for Kerry and it will give his popular vote numbers a boost. But, it's not what gets someone elected. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:51 PM Oh, and just for the superstitious record, my questioning of national polls is in no way because I think Bush will win. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:52 PM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Remember info?	Now Available! The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines Those of you who are longtime Not Watchers of Stephen Colbert will not enjoy this flashback of Colbert dancing with Chuck Schumer while wearing ostentatious covid masks Rush Limbaugh was an innovator in so many ways, including being among the first to not watch Stephen Colbert DNI Tulsi Gabbard tenders her resignation for June 30, says her husband has been diagnosed with a rare bone cancer and she will have to help him through this TJM definitively ranks the films of Sam Peckinpah. Podcast: CBD and Jim Lakely of The Heartland Institute chat about Heartland's two recent discussions: The affordability crisis in America, and The UN retreating from their most maniacal climate projections. Along the way we talk Democrat insanity and the changing electoral map...and more! TJM discusses the violence of Sam Peckinpah. After threatening that the "clock is ticking" for renewed strikes on Iran, Trump once again calls them off to give negotiating a chance. I can't even cover this any more. It's embarrassing. It's like covering the endless negotiations over DHS funding. Trump is going to drag this out through the midterms and then lose them. Note to the president: At some point, allowing the Regime to remain in power without actually forcing them to give up nukes is just a back-door, unacknowledged renewal of the Obama policy. Well, I guess we just have to wait for their economy to collapse and their troops to desert. TJM definitively ranks the films of David Lean Mayor Karen is so stung by fan-made AI ads that she's resorting to the shitlibs' go-to demand for an end to criticism -- these ads are "violent" and "hateful" and making me feel unsafe because one video showed AI cartoons throwing tomatoes at me and the tomatoes looked like blood when they squished This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN? Podcast: Sefton and CBD are joined by Jeff Carter, candidate for NV treasurer, and seasoned finance professional, for a discussion of the issues facing Nevadans, and the larger financial challenges in America. TJM explores the movies of David Lean, director of Lawrence of Arabia Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust. Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?" Posted by: Smell the Glove I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove Chris @chriswithans "Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh" Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today Something is wrong as I hold you near Somebody else holds your heart, yeah You turn to me with your icy tears And then it's raining, feels like it's raining TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games "It's fking fked." -- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source" Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held. Basil the Great @BasilTheGreat 🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight It's over "The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them) No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters. Only a cult does this. 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"But What About the Electoral College?"