Ace of Spades HQ

Support

Contact

Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com

"But What About the Electoral College?"

A lot of people seem to think that Bush is doing better in the electoral college, or state by state polling, than the national polling.

That's wrong.

National sentiment is made up, after all, of the sentiment within each state. When Bush does well in the national polls, he also does well in the state polls, and vice versa, and contrariwise. They're all linked-- they all have a high degree of correlation. Indeed, one can pretty much determine how many electoral votes a candidate will get based on his share of the national vote. Bush, for example, might squeak a 10 electoral vote victory if up by 1 or 2 points nationally, but if up by 3, he'd win by 30 EV's, etc.

So, why do the state by state polls and electoral college counts look better for Bush right now?

Well, easy-- because no one's done any state polls since the debate. It takes time to poll all those 16-20 battleground states, plus states that had seemed like battlegrounds lately, such as NJ. You can point to the state polls but, alas, those are all old numbers. Pointing to the state polls is like noting that Green Bay was ahead of New York yesterday for a while. It's true, but it's dated, and it's irrelevant.

This doesn't mean that Kerry's going to win, just like it didn't mean that Bush was going to win when he was ahead. It does mean, however, that Bush no longer has the advantage. He could get that advantage back, etc., but at the moment, it's tied, with momentum in Kerry's favor.

posted by Ace at 10:48 AM

Comments

And, just in time to confirm ACE's judgement (though ACE is NOT pessimistic!!)......

The first poll conducted entirely after the debate was NJ, which has moved from toss-up to 50-42 Kerry.

Another "ethnic" poll also shows Jews are staying loyally Democratic, yet again. 68-21%. Despite Bush's all but declaring Israel as beloved in his heart as Texas, and his tax cuts for the wealthy.

Catholic Hispanics are siding with Kerry by 65% to just 17% for Bush. Which is close to Alan Keye's numbers against Barack Obama.

Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 12:01 PM

Ace, while I agree with you as a practical matter, there are conditions where your logic goes flying out the window. It's possible for there to be a surge in support for one candidate in states that aren't going to change sides anyway (e.g. solidly Kerry to rabidly Kerry or Rabidly Bush to merely Leaning Bush), making it appear as though that candidate is doing better when nothing has changed. We don't see this very much anymore because the states are a lot more homogeneous today than at anytime in the past, which means a national poll can generally sense a real shift within the states as a whole. But it's still theoretically possible that something can affect voters on a regional basis (wavering Kerry voters in the Bluest Gore states turning solid, for instance), making the national poll a load of bunk.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 4, 2004 12:26 PM

I disagree. New York and California have a ton of people yet no matter what percentage of the state votes Kerry, the electoral vote stays the same. So, Kerry can be winning by a lot in NY and Bush can win by a little in Pennsylvania or Ohio and Bush would win the election.

Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 04:29 PM

Karol,

You're talking about something that could happen, theoretically, but doesn't.

It could happen that all of New York and California vote for Kerry, giving him a big national vote lead, while he loses every other state.

It doesn't happen, though. There are soft voters everywhere, and they turn based on the same things.

New Jersey, a one-point state a week ago, is now either a five- or eight-point race. As soon as Kerry's national numbers got better, he gained a healthy lead in NJ. Because they're linked.

Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 04:39 PM

In a country of 300 million, polling some 3000 nationally and making judgements based on this, especially since we don't have national elections, is a poor idea. Most of NY and CA will vote for Kerry and it will give his popular vote numbers a boost. But, it's not what gets someone elected.

Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:51 PM

Oh, and just for the superstitious record, my questioning of national polls is in no way because I think Bush will win.

Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:52 PM

Post a comment

Amazon.com Widgets

Now Available!
The Deplorable Gourmet
A Horde-sourced Cookbook
[All profits go to charity]

Top Headlines

Oh no! Hamas' de facto press agent at the UN complains that she can't use her credit cards or rent a card now that she's been sanctioned as a terrorist operative
Why does this keep happening to members of the "political organization" (per Tucker Carlson) of Hamas?!?!

Tucker Carlson claims that it's weird that Ted Cruz is interested in the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, because he has "no track record of being interested in Christians," then blows off the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, saying it might or might not be a real concern
Tucker Carlson enjoys using the left-wing tactic of "Tactical Ignorance" to avoid taking positions on topics. Is Hamas really a terrorist organization? Tucker can't say. He hasn't looked into it enough, but "it seems like a political organization to me." Are Muslims slaughtering Christians in Nigeria? Again, Tucker just doesn't know. He hasn't examined the evidence yet. He knows every Palestinian Christian who said he was blocked from visiting holy sites in Bethlehem, but he just hasn't had the time to look into the mass slaughter of Christians in Nigeria that has been going on since (checks watch) 2009. He doesn't know, so he can't offer an opinion. Wouldn't be prudent, you know? Don't rush him! He'll sift through the evidence at some point in the future and render an opinion sometime around 2044.
Of course, if you need an opinion on Jewish Perfidy, he has all the facts at his fingertips and can give you a fully informed opinion pronto. Say, have you ever heard of the USS Liberty incident...?
You'd think that the main issue for Tucker Carlson, who pretends to be so deeply concerned about Palestinian Christians being bullied by Jews in Israel (supposedly), would be the massacre of 185,000 Christians in Nigeria itself. But no, his main problem is that Ted Cruz is talking about it, "who has no track record of being interested in Christians at all." And then he just shrugs as to whether this is even a real issue or not.
Whatever we do we must never "divide the right," huh?
Tucker is attacking Ted Cruz for bringing the issue up because he's acting as an apologist for Jihadism, and he can't cleanly admit that Jihadists are killing any Christians, anywhere. There is no daylight between him and CAIR at this point.
One might conclude that Tucker Carlson himself isn't interested in the plight of Christians -- except as they can be used as a cudgel to attack Jews.
Just gonna ask an Interesting Question myself -- why is it that Tucker Carlson's arguments all track with those shit out by Qatarian propaganda agents and the far left? That if Jews crush an ant underfoot it is worldwide news, but when Muslims slaughter Christians it elicits not even a vigorous shrug?

Sydney Sweeney has passed from celebrity to Meme Legend

Garth Merenghi is interviewed by the only man who can fathom his ineffable brilliance -- Garth Merenghi
From the comments:

I once glimpsed Garth in the penumbra betwixt my wake and sleep. He was in my dream, standing afar, not looking my way, nor did he acknowledge me. But I felt seen. And that's when I knew I was a traveler on the right path. I'm glad he's still with us.

Now that's some Merenghian prose.
Garth Merenghi on the writer's craft

Greetings, Traveler. If you still have not experienced Garth Merenghi -- Author, Dream-weaver, Visionary, plus Actor -- the six episodes of his Darkplace are still available on YouTube and supposedly upscaled to HD. (Viewing it now, it doesn't appeared upscaled for shit.)
I think the second episode, "Hell Hath Fury," is the best by a good margin. Try to at least watch through to that one. It's Mereghi's incisive but nuanced take on sexism.

TJM Returns with a discussion of Auteur Theory.

Podcast: The elections! NYC, Virginia, New Jersey, Texas, California, and the future prospects of the Republican party...

Update on Scott Adams:

Scott Adams had approval for this cancer drug but they hadn't scheduled him to get it. He was taking a turn for the worse. Trump had told him to call if he needed anything, so he did. Talked to Don Jr (who is in Africa) , then RFK Jr, then Dr Oz. Someone talked to Kaiser and he was scheduled. Shouldn't have needed it but he did and he says it saved his life.
Posted by: Notsothoreau

"Trump" goes trick-or-treating

Funny retro kid costumes, thanks to SMH
Good to see people honoring Lamont the Big Dummy

Four hours of retro Halloween commercials and specials
The first short is the original 1996 appearance of "Sam," the dangerous undead trick-or-treater from Trick r' Treat.

ICYMI: Australian journalist actually presses Kamala Harris when she repeatedly dodges questions about Biden's mental fitness
Kamala admits she didn't have the stamina to run for president, while continuing to insist he had the mental capacity to serve as president. He was too frail to run but perfectly strong enough to govern. Yeah sure whatever lying whore.

On Wednesday, we'll see the "Beaver Super-Moon." Which sounds hot.

Podcast: Historian and Pundit Robert Spencer joins us for a wide-ranging discussion about the Islamists in our midst: Mamdani in NYC, all across Europe, and others.

Full Episode: The Hardy Boys (and Nancy Drew) Meet Dracula
I don't remember this show, except for remembering that Nancy Drew was hot and the opening credits were foreboding and exicting

According to Grok, Latrine John-Pissoir has never failed to mention she is "black" (or "queer") during her book interviews
She may not know what the hell her book is about, but she definitely knows that "every day I wake up black and queer." Join the club, sister!

Schmoll: 53% of New Jersey likely voters say their neighbors are voting for Ciattarelli, while 47% say the cheater/grifter Mikie Sherrill
The "who do you think your neighbors are voting for" question is designed to avoid the Shy Tory problem, wherein conservative people lie to schmollsters because they don't want to go on record with a likely left-winger telling them who they're really voting for. So instead the question is who do you think your neighbors are voting for, so people can talk about who they themselves support without actually having to admit it to a left-wing rando stranger recording their answers on the phone.

Hackers take over University of Penn website, calling the school a "dogshit elitist institution full of woke retards" and threatening to release its admissions files to prove illegal racial discrimination
No lies detected so far

Live Now: Dana Loesch is interrogating Heritage President Kevin Roberts on his insistence that the gay Nazi Nick Fuentes is an absolutely essential "conservative" voice whose ideas we must take seriously and who we must absolutely not exclude based on his Naziism

TJM Complains about Wreck-It Ralph The very topical premiere of TJM's YouTube Channel.

Interesting football history: How the forward pass was created in response to the nineteen -- 19! -- people killed playing football in 1905 alone
The original rules of football did not allow forward passes. The ball was primarily advanced by running, with blockers forming lines with interlocked arms and just smashing into the similarly-interlocked defensive lines. It was basically Greek hoplite spear formations but with a semi-spherical ball. As calls to ban the sport entirely grew, some looked for ways to de-emphasize mass charges as the primary means of advancing the ball, and some specifically championed allowing a passer to throw the ball forward.