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October 04, 2004
"But What About the Electoral College?"A lot of people seem to think that Bush is doing better in the electoral college, or state by state polling, than the national polling. That's wrong. National sentiment is made up, after all, of the sentiment within each state. When Bush does well in the national polls, he also does well in the state polls, and vice versa, and contrariwise. They're all linked-- they all have a high degree of correlation. Indeed, one can pretty much determine how many electoral votes a candidate will get based on his share of the national vote. Bush, for example, might squeak a 10 electoral vote victory if up by 1 or 2 points nationally, but if up by 3, he'd win by 30 EV's, etc. So, why do the state by state polls and electoral college counts look better for Bush right now? Well, easy-- because no one's done any state polls since the debate. It takes time to poll all those 16-20 battleground states, plus states that had seemed like battlegrounds lately, such as NJ. You can point to the state polls but, alas, those are all old numbers. Pointing to the state polls is like noting that Green Bay was ahead of New York yesterday for a while. It's true, but it's dated, and it's irrelevant. This doesn't mean that Kerry's going to win, just like it didn't mean that Bush was going to win when he was ahead. It does mean, however, that Bush no longer has the advantage. He could get that advantage back, etc., but at the moment, it's tied, with momentum in Kerry's favor. posted by Ace at 10:48 AM
CommentsAnd, just in time to confirm ACE's judgement (though ACE is NOT pessimistic!!)...... The first poll conducted entirely after the debate was NJ, which has moved from toss-up to 50-42 Kerry. Another "ethnic" poll also shows Jews are staying loyally Democratic, yet again. 68-21%. Despite Bush's all but declaring Israel as beloved in his heart as Texas, and his tax cuts for the wealthy. Catholic Hispanics are siding with Kerry by 65% to just 17% for Bush. Which is close to Alan Keye's numbers against Barack Obama. Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 12:01 PM
Ace, while I agree with you as a practical matter, there are conditions where your logic goes flying out the window. It's possible for there to be a surge in support for one candidate in states that aren't going to change sides anyway (e.g. solidly Kerry to rabidly Kerry or Rabidly Bush to merely Leaning Bush), making it appear as though that candidate is doing better when nothing has changed. We don't see this very much anymore because the states are a lot more homogeneous today than at anytime in the past, which means a national poll can generally sense a real shift within the states as a whole. But it's still theoretically possible that something can affect voters on a regional basis (wavering Kerry voters in the Bluest Gore states turning solid, for instance), making the national poll a load of bunk. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 4, 2004 12:26 PM
I disagree. New York and California have a ton of people yet no matter what percentage of the state votes Kerry, the electoral vote stays the same. So, Kerry can be winning by a lot in NY and Bush can win by a little in Pennsylvania or Ohio and Bush would win the election. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 04:29 PM
Karol, You're talking about something that could happen, theoretically, but doesn't. It could happen that all of New York and California vote for Kerry, giving him a big national vote lead, while he loses every other state. It doesn't happen, though. There are soft voters everywhere, and they turn based on the same things. New Jersey, a one-point state a week ago, is now either a five- or eight-point race. As soon as Kerry's national numbers got better, he gained a healthy lead in NJ. Because they're linked. Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 04:39 PM
In a country of 300 million, polling some 3000 nationally and making judgements based on this, especially since we don't have national elections, is a poor idea. Most of NY and CA will vote for Kerry and it will give his popular vote numbers a boost. But, it's not what gets someone elected. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:51 PM
Oh, and just for the superstitious record, my questioning of national polls is in no way because I think Bush will win. Posted by: Karol on October 4, 2004 05:52 PM
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British travel blogger experiences his first SEC college football game, tailgating, and Southern hospitality. His videos display the true America and not the dystopia shown by Hollywood. (take notice of how 95% of the people are thin, attractive, fun loving, friendly, and polite.) [dri]
Original KISS guitarist Ace Frehley dies at age 74
I heard that his solo album, back when each member of KISS cut their own record, was pretty good. Here's that solo album, from 1978. Sounds a bit like The Sweet.
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Garrett's Infinite Playlist Edition
Why can't you set your monkey free?
Eleventh Starship/Superheavy a complete success
"On the eleventh orbital test flight today of Starship/Superheavy, SpaceX basically achieved all its engineering goals, with both Superheavy and Starship completing their flights as planned, with Superheavy doing a soft vertical splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, and Starship doing a soft vertical splashdown in the Indian Ocean." [CBD]
The architectural history of the spooky old house
Kind of interesting, looks at the design cues that inform stuff like the Addams Family Mansion and the other media "spooky old houses" of our imagination
Robert Spencer: Hamas Out to Destroy the Gazan Clans That Oppose It [CBD]
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Twitch's prized terrorist Hasan Piker activates his dog's shock collar because it... got up and walked two feet away from its designated area
I saw Nuxanor claiming that Piker is claiming he feels physically unsafe in public. it takes some real gall to play the Real Victim Here card, given that he has called for the murders of Senator Rick Scott and
Chris Dreja RIP: of the legendary 60s Rock band The Yardbirds has died at 79.
Dreja co-founded The Yardbirds in 1963; playing rhythm guitar alongside lead axman Tom Topham, singer Keith Relf, drummer Jim McCarthy and bassist Paul Samwell-Smith. The group would go on to feature three of the most celebrated guitarists in rock history in Eric Clapton, who replaced Topham in 1993; Jeff Beck, who took over for Clapton in 1965; and future Led Zeppelin heavyweight Jimmy Page, who joined in 1966; when Samwell-Smith left. (J.J. Sefton)
I have no regrets about quitting the NFL.
I also have no regrets about quitting the increasingly gay James Bond: Bleeding Fool Censored images of Bond, now disarmed, here via BetaCuck4Lyfe, which coincidentally enough will be James Bond's new cover identity.
Harvard hires drag queen named 'LaWhore Vagistan' as visiting professor
You can't make this up! [CBD] ![]()
Oh great, another reboot of an old TV series for "The Modern Audience"
Trump taunts Democrat leaders with 'Trump 2028' hats in Oval Office
The man knows how to troll! [CBD]
High-power microwave system downs 49 drones in one shot - weaponized electromagnetic interference erases drone swarms en masse Measure...counter-measure...counter-counter-measure? [CBD]
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