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« Good Zombie Flick | Main | Billy Joel Marries . . . A Restaurant Correspondent »
October 03, 2004

Seven Reasons Why Bush Will Lose

Hoke here.

I don't know when or if I will be with you again. Ace intimates that he is pleased with my work, but he's also a jealous, petulant type, and if he feels I've usurped him in any way, he will slice like a fu**ing hammer.

Here are some thoughts, presuming I won't be subbing again before the election.

Bush will lose. It will be very close, but he will lose for the following reasons.

1) He's been debilitated over four years by a steady drumbeat of media bias and vicious antipathy on the part of the opposition. Florida assured the Democrats would come back strong in four years, but Bush himself - the embodiment of all that Red America swagger, stupidity and salvation - drove the Democrats to vile acts.

2) We are more like Spain than we want to imagine. The towers fall, and there are flags on every overpass. Even Neil Young pens a tune. We always flourish in the moment. The moment now is extended, however, and that means the dirty job of continuing the fight through preemption. al Zarqawi recognizes this, and if we have an American man or, God forbid, a woman, pleading for his or her life just before decapitation, it will have the same effect as the Madrid bombings. Enough of us will want to change the channel and the alternative will be Kerry.

3) We're a mortician's society, examining the dead instead of proactively seeking to enhance life. This means that no good in our actions can be countenanced, all bad must be exhumed, and the future is irrelevant.

4) Bush is tired. His most endearing quality last time out was when he told a flabbergasted Diane Sawyer that if he lost, life would go on, and he was sincere (in contrast, Gore has a massive breakdown and has now become Peter Finch-meets-Marlon Brando). His "smirks" in the first debate were nothing of the sort. He was a man who has many responsibilities looking at a guy whose only responsibility was trying to win an election.

5) There is a script. The script called for the decimation of Howard Dean because Dean screamed. It was funny, but it was also cruelly unfair. The new script calls for a Comeback Kid.

6) Kerry's adoption of 75 positions may have been more clever than folks imagine. He has a hardcore "Bush is a Nazi, Bible-thumpin' moron" posse. He just needs to get a few more to cross over, and in the end, he'll be able to "HYPNOTIZE!" enough of them to win. It is important to understand that his people get in a room and say "Okay, what should we say about Iraq today that might get us votes?" They are not talking about altering adjectives. They are talking about altering verbs and nouns.

7) We're weak. We've lost 1000 good people in Iraq, and we're at the end of our tether. As a nation, it is easier for us to lose 3,000 through inattention in the form of victimhood than proaction in the form of changing the world. At heart, we want to go back to lobbing missiles from afar as policy.


posted by Ace at 09:59 AM
Comments



Plenty of good points there, no doubt about it.

Posted by: madne0 on October 3, 2004 10:11 AM

You've got a lot to learn about Texans!

Remember Texans are the only people that fought the indians and the Mexicans at the same time and ended up with their own country. That legacy prevades the State and its people. They do not give up. The President is a true Texan who will fight and persevere until he wins because he believes it is the right thing to do.

I am not true Texan but a transplanted wolverine (20 years ago) from Michigan. I am unceasingly amazed at the determination manifest in this state for what is right.

Buck up oh weak one and remember the Alamo. Some battles are seriously lost- but President Bush will prevail in the end.

Posted by: mostlyright on October 3, 2004 10:20 AM

I hate you, because it sounds too plausible.

But I don't buy it. Never bet on the US losing. We're not invincible, but basically, we are 15-1-1, the odds are with us.

Posted by: blaster on October 3, 2004 10:24 AM

you are just another fair weather fan i'm afraid. take your toys and go home kid because you cant take the heat and the last thing that we need at this time is a defeatist. i assure you that w can. he and rove have just begun to fight.

Posted by: dan on October 3, 2004 10:34 AM

What kind of Defeatist talk is that? The best I see kerry gaining is one point. The fact is, people see through Kerry. Only the most die hard liberals think Kerry is capable of being President. Bush will not lose. Take that to the bank.

Posted by: Carl on October 3, 2004 10:54 AM

Hmm wondering if this is leading up to a last minute "suprise" endoresment of Kerry ala Andrew Sullivan?

Posted by: Paul B. on October 3, 2004 11:02 AM

This isn't a huddle, bitches. I'm not here to slap your asses and say "Go get 'em, tiger."

Posted by: Hoke Malokey on October 3, 2004 11:06 AM

Screw the polls people. The only polls that matter are in the electoral college. Bush wins 300 votes in the EC. You read it hear first.

Oh and Hoke, you are WAY better than ace, LMAO.

Posted by: Midaz on October 3, 2004 11:15 AM

On August 30, 2004, the foremost mentalist in the world, the Great Kreskin -- who Johnny Carson often had as a guest and even spoofed -- predicted that George W. Bush would win the election this year.

Posted by: Chris on October 3, 2004 11:23 AM

Midaz

Ace hears that and I'll never work in this blog again.

Posted by: Hoke Malokey on October 3, 2004 11:25 AM

the Great Kreskin ... predicted that George W. Bush would win the election this year

oh no! he's toast now!

;)

Posted by: bkw on October 3, 2004 11:25 AM

While I agree with Carl and Dan, I can't accept your hypothesis for much broader reasons.

Hoke, through each of your points, you're suggesting that the American character has been dramatically and unalterably changed by Vietnam. Even the American of 1972 wasn't affected by Vietnam so much that we voted for the anti-war candidate, and his opponent was the less-than-charismatic Dick Nixon. You're telling me that the attitude of Desert1, Beruit, and Somalia will finally win out over Grenada, Panama, Persian Gulf, Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq - that Americans will finally choose to cut and run for once and for all, and that the Republic - finally proven to be weak and vulnerable - is nearing its end.

I cannot accept that Americans have changed that much. We have 30 days left yet before you see what Real Americans think. I'm not telling you to be a cheerleader, I'm just telling you not to believe what was programmed into you by the public school socialists.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 11:26 AM

THe Republican hope is that people will see that Kerry is a true Massachusetts liberal of the lying prevaricating sort. At least Ted Kennedy isn't two-faced on every issue. Ted, errr, has the strength of character lacking in Kerry.

But that's about it for the Republican ammo.

On the other hand, "we" see serious Bush flaws: Some reasons why Bush is in real trouble:

1. Many people see Bush as stubborn, unable to admit making a mistake on any action he has made, and refusing to hold people accountable. No one was let go for 9/11 mistakes except Tenet - after Congress demanded a fall guy. No neocon was held responsible for the totally botched postwar effort in Iraq. This is poor executive leadership.

2. Bush is known to have risen to being an effective communicator a la Clinton or Reagan at certain times - but on other occasions is slow on his feet, virtually inarticulate and unable to defend his controversial decisions against attack. He is rote, repetitious talking point-driven. To lead, a President must persuade, and too many times Bush thinks that is too painful to bother with, or has to use ineffective spin surrogates to try and make his case.

3. The idea of tax cuts when pushed in 2000, was that the huge Federal surplus justified them and by giving most of it to the biggest corporations and wealthiest individuals - they would wisely trickle it down and invest in jobs, a robust stock market, and economic growth in vital sectors.

The results have been 1.8 trillion dollars borrowed from other countries, a stock market way down, dollar down, increased state and local taxes on the middle class, and a net of over 1 million jobs lost. All with a substitution of low-paying service jobs for higher-paying ones. And nothing really invested - just spent - spent on nice Chinese-made stuff, CEO bonuses, bigger SUVs, and building bigger houses. When Eisenhower and Reagan went into debt, the money was invested in creating middle class jobs, R&D, and in creating better infrastructure.

America has little to show for the 1.8 trillion in Bush II debt other than bigger government and the local auto dealer who cut health care benefits for employees building a castle on the hill.

4. Bush lets ideology and his personal moral certainty trump comity. He has done his part in alienating himself from other nations and American constituent groups by starting the discussion - I'm 100% right, and you're wrong, and I'm here to convince you of that.

5. He squandered all his political capital on Iraq and refuses to address the major issues of uncontrolled illegal immigration, job outsourcing, a 500 billion trade imbalance, dissolving post-Cold War international American leadership. When he adressed drug costs, he came up with a 600 billion subsidy to non-means tested seniors only to keep the drug prices at a maximum price, refusing to bargain lower costs - and while those under 65 still pay 50% more than anywhere else, dismayed seniors find that Canadian prices are still cheaper...and Canada isn't tapping taxpayers for 600 billion to subsidize top prices...they just sat down with the drug companies and negotiated.

6. Bush has neglected many areas of domestic policy because he sees himself as the Maximum War Leader - leaving that domestic stuff to a Republican-led reckless spending Congress eager to give out Pork with no concern of having to pay for it. Not a single veto.


Posted by: Cedarford on October 3, 2004 11:28 AM

Black Republican

"the public school socialists" should be stricken with "private school Jesuits."

The education was better, but I question whether all the oral sex was worth a single Snickers bar.

By the way, do you wager?

Posted by: Hoke Malokey on October 3, 2004 11:35 AM

There are two reasons that I believe you're misjudging the mood. The first reason is that we Red State people have endured three and a half years of Blue Staters telling us we're stupid, racist, hate-mongers and we don't have a right to our political opinions. We're pissed. No matter the October surprise we'll get naked and low-crawl through a mile of busted bottles to vote.
The second misjudgement is about the Scoop Jackson, Zell Miller,Ed Koch Democrats. They make up some thirty to forty percent of the rank and file of the Party. They aren't just being ignored, they're being actively and loudly disrespected. Further, there's no way for The Hee-row to bring the Zell Miller Dems back into the fold without pissing off the Al Franken Dems.

Posted by: Peter on October 3, 2004 11:39 AM

Oh, Hoke, I'm so sorry. You got a brew even worse than public school socialism. You must have gotten the liberation theology treatment. Tell me when you're scheduled for your next mind-control seminar and I'll try to get to you first and do an intervention.

And, yes, I do. What would interest you... guest blogger for a month? Set you up with a blog of your own for a year? No cash, please - that's so Vegas.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 11:45 AM

With all the talk of who will be President, don't forget to look up now and then and see what is the likely final Senate outcome.

Repubs are now down in nepotic Alaska, sterilized Oklahoma, more Jews than Cubans Florida favoring Castor over Martinez, Hillaryista Bowles in N Carolina, and in South Carolina. Obviously in Illinois, where Keyes is self-slaughtering in an already losing cause by showing how deranged he really is....Daschle just went ahead of Thune again in S Dakota.

Outcome? Pollsters now projecting a 52-48 Democratic Senate.

BTW - While I think Bush is a bad President, I think Kerry would be worse. It's sorta like Ford v. Carter. Bumbling Gerry "unable to do anything right" Ford vs. "help is on the way" Jimmuh. Many people voted Carter thinking Ford was a poor Prez, and regretted it so much later on. My Dad became a Reagan Democrat on the basis of his Carter vote, and told his kids that if you are in doubt between two crappy candidates, vote Republican. (of course he said that because he thought Republicans held reckless spending in check and cared about the middle class -)

Posted by: Cedarford on October 3, 2004 11:52 AM

Black

Where's your hometown? Let's do this like governors. Mine is Virginia. Bush wins, I send you a smoked ham.

Posted by: on October 3, 2004 12:00 PM

Cedarford, you are smoking something, and it isn't ham. You think Inez is going to win South Carolina?

HAHAHAHAHA!

Posted by: blaster on October 3, 2004 12:05 PM

Cedarford

You're drunk re: the Senate.

GOP starts up 1.

The GOP will win in GA, SC - those are locks.

GOP up 3.

The GOP will lose in IL - that's a lock.

GOP up 2.

Dems have good shots in OK, AK and CO.

GOP has good shots in NC, FL, LA, and SD.

The GOP has an outside shot in WA.

So . . . to get the Senate, the Dems have to hold NC, FL, LA, SD, and WA and the Dems have to win OK, CO, and AK.

Posted by: on October 3, 2004 12:07 PM

The last 2 anonymous posts are mine.

Posted by: Hoke Malokey on October 3, 2004 12:11 PM

I'm a South Carolinian, and I can tell you that there is no way Inez will win. Only liberal Yankees who stare at poll numbers until they're cross-eyed believe that Tenenbaum is going to win my state.

We South Carolinians have long memories. That Jim DeMint is the GOP nominee and David Beasley is not should reveal this to any outsider.

We remember Inez Tenenbaum. And we don't want her in the U.S. Senate.

Posted by: John on October 3, 2004 12:50 PM

A hefty bag of Flow-ree-da oranges it is - provided I can still find some. And after four hurricanes, they should just about equal the cost of a ham.

And I want this on the front page, trackbacked to this. :-)

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 01:02 PM

Black

I'd never be happier to send a ham to Florida. You're on.

Posted by: Hoke Malokey on October 3, 2004 01:23 PM

You have opened an emotional wound with this one.

I think, logically, you are right on point. Our President has been relentlessly hammered for 4 years as being a liar, stupid, inept and a non-communicator by MSM and Libs etc. It has to take a toll personnally and in the polls.

My hope is that the majority of Americans are not so stupid as to put the worlds future at risk by putting a "fancy boy" in the White House.

I hope common sense takes over.

Now for my favorite qoute of the day..

Just heard on FOX, Laurie Dhue was reporting on Mt St Helens and said, "A major erruption is imminent". My first response was, it sure is Laurie!

Posted by: DaveS on October 3, 2004 02:08 PM

I am always amazed at how it is totally against the rules to say nasty things about blacks, jews, and cripples, but you can say all the ugly things you want about Catholics.

Just an observation.

Posted by: Jennifer on October 3, 2004 05:27 PM

Fuck that. We won't let that happen.

Posted by: Stankleberry on October 3, 2004 08:47 PM

Jennifer, where did that come from? I'm Catholic, so I'd really love to know who's being ugly.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 09:12 PM

I HATE THAT POST by Hoke, because he made it sound like USA *deserved* the disaster that would befall us if Kerry won. No, far better to say that MSM bias will convince the deluded american voter to pick phony 'war hero' Kerry, who put in for medals so he could bug out quick, come home, and denounce the war to leave South Vietnam and veterans to hang out to dry, conspire with Communists, then have a 20 year record of trashing our military, missing intelligence meetings and voting for DoD cuts.

AND THIS IS THE MAN TO LEAD US IN THE WAR ON TERROR? The man when asked the most serious threat we faced, answered not 'global terrorism' but proliferation, yet whose answer to it seems to be: 1. We made a mistake to act on perceived threats
2. we are making a mistake to have sanctions on rogue nations
3. we should try with North Korea those things which failed in the past.
4. We should stop developing defenses and systems in the US.

THIS IS LUNACY. If you were an evil anti-American
GirlieManchurian Candidate, you couldnt come up with a worse set of plans to HARM OUR NATIONAL SECURITY. Besides which the Key question Kerry wont answer:

How can John Kerry ask our troops and our allies to spend blood and treasure in an intervention he calls a 'collosal mistake?'


And Cedarford - Bush is the best President since Reagan, the best Prez of my lifetime. Bush has given half a dozen speeches better than Clinton, because they *said something*. His leadership on Iraq, and on a number of issues where he *got the job done* has been fantastic. WE ARE WINNING IN IRAQ 80%+ of Iraqis in polls want democracy and support the Iraqi government. We just killed and captured 200 in Samarra, that were against Iraqi govt and us. We did the right thing to remove Saddam - a man who offered Osama Bin laden safe haven in 1998; we did the right thing to focus on making Iraq a free and democratic nation, as an example for other mideast nations, and to build an ally in the GWOT.
The fact that our terrorist enemies want to stop it and are using violence, murder, kidnapping etc. to stop us, and the fact that terrorists have decided to stir things up and the baathists are funding insurgents shouldnt phase us in the least.

That is what war is. The MSM doesnt believe in any war that can help Republicans politically and so does everything they can to undermine the effort and our faith in it. Just like Kerry is doing - undermining our troops, our resolve, and our effort through repeated denigration of the effort.

Nobody in DoD needed firing because they've been stellar since 9/11, and CIA as of *this week* has a new leader. Bush HAS THE BEST TEAM IN HIS ADMINISTRATION THAT I HAVE EVER SEEN.

So to all those whining that Bush is not glib like Clinton, well, as Theresa would say - Shove It.


Posted by: Patrick on October 3, 2004 09:19 PM

OIC, sorry, forgot about the comments about the Jesuits. I'll take it up with you separately, but for the record here, nobody said anything anti-Catholic - exactly the opposite. The SOJ should have been disbanded and all its members excommunicated for what they were preaching in the 70's and 80's.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 09:22 PM

I'll tell you, with all the attacks on the president, I would be exhausted, too. I would probably say "This country ain't worth defending! I can no longer stand these crybabies. I want it to stop: I'd rather just go back to my ranch and spend a good long time over there doing the chores and have peace of mind. If this country does not appreciate all of my effort and decide to give the whole outrageous burden to a parfumed prince, fine. Four years from now they will wish they had never made that choice."

If he loses, just watch. Four years from now America will wish they have never surrendered to the "summit crowd."

Posted by: newton on October 4, 2004 12:30 AM

You don't read Spanish, do you? If you did, you might have been able to learn something about Spain, where the government, after the train bombings, immediately lied about the culprits, and then continued to lie as the truth became obvious to everyone else. Those lies, which mirrored the lies told to get Spain in the war, were the source of Spain's honorable withdrawal from a war they had been sold on false pretenses.

Perhaps you like being lied to. The Spanish do not. You shouldn't compound your error by lying about the Spanish.

Posted by: ultra on October 4, 2004 05:51 PM
Posted by: Missy on November 6, 2004 12:16 AM
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