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September 20, 2004

A Dukakian Fall III: A Dukakian Fall With a Vengeance

Bipartisan "Battleground" Poll Puts John Kerry Below 40%

STUDY #9936 THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. and LAKE SNELL PERRY N = 250 per day of registered “likely” voters Field Dates: September 12 –16, 2004
1. If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?
(DO NOT READ NAMES, JUST RECORD)

George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 39%
Ralph Nader 1%
NAMED OTHER 1%
UNSURE 14%

Here. You have to download an MSWord file (hopefully not forged) to read the data.

Of course, all hope is not lost. As The Unabrewer tips me, John Kerry is still ahead in New York... by five whole points.

And in Maryland -- one of the staunchest Democratic bastions there is -- he's comfortably in a 48-48 tie with Bush.

I don't want to say that John Kerry is unelectable, but he couldn't get elected warden in monkey-prison with a wheelbarrow full of bananas and a lenient policy on excrement-flingin'.

Update! And now Bush four points ahead in... Oregon?

The only problem with a real blow-out is that it doesn't hurt to be blown out. When you get trounced, you know that no particular error you made, or flaw in your strategy, could have possibly helped you. You just throw your hands up and say, "Eh. Nothing I could have done."

On the other hand, there's Al Gore.

Thanks to Terry Notus for the Oregon tip.

posted by Ace at 06:26 PM

Comments

Dukakian. There's a word I don't use often enough.

Dukakian.

Posted by: Ross on September 20, 2004 06:56 PM

Monkey-prison. That's also a grossly under-utilized term.

Posted by: George on September 20, 2004 07:00 PM

Don't count Kerry out until he's made a concession speech...and then you better wait about a month, just in case. It better not be close...at all...anywhere. If it is, it's going to be 2000 all over again in spades. Here's some cold comfort...

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/jeff/jacoby.html

Posted by: Blacknimbus on September 20, 2004 07:11 PM

I've got video of a Japanese monkey jail.

Posted by: Ripper on September 20, 2004 07:18 PM

Ace, Brit Hume just quoted Mary Mapes' father that she is a radical feminist and went into journalism to push a leftist agenda.

Posted by: Mark on September 20, 2004 07:34 PM

Ace--

But wait! Kerry is coming back, baby!

"AP: Kerry Says He Wouldn't Have Ousted Saddam."

Ya gotta read the story, if only for the howler opening para.

http://garfieldridge.blogspot.com/2004/09/kerry-says-he-wouldnt-have-ousted.html

Cheers,
Dave
Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave on September 20, 2004 07:41 PM

I just hope Bush is far enough ahead to compensate for Democrat vote fraud.

Posted by: Golden Boy on September 20, 2004 07:46 PM

I am excited about Maryland being a 48% tie. I was commenting to family over the weekend that I've been seeing more visual support for Bush/Cheney than Kerry/Edwards. Matter of fact, I am starting to see more Bush bumper stickers on the Washington Beltway every day. And at the Anne Arundel county fair last week, there was a line at the Republican tent for yard signs and I didn't see anyone accept a Kerry yard sign.

Posted by: Fersboo on September 20, 2004 08:18 PM

ACE: Check out Lucianne!!! Joe Lockhart has been outed as a liason between Mapes and Burkett!

This appears to be, at the very least, a shadowy connection between the Kerry Campaign and CBS!

Posted by: senator philabuster on September 20, 2004 08:21 PM

Ace:
I love this. I vote in Maryland, so maybe I can be the tiebreaker. However, the Pew (+1) and the Harris (-1) national polls are still bugging me. In the NE, Bush is beating the spread like Pete Rose is placing his bets, but the national polls aren't reflecting it. Something is whacky.

Mark:
That's very interesting, in an utterly unsurprising way. We would all love to see a link when one is available.

Posted by: Terry Notus on September 20, 2004 08:34 PM

Ace:
Now Bush is +4 in Oregon too.

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713728.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Posted by: Terry Notus on September 20, 2004 09:01 PM

A blowout would be sour and sweet. On one hand, I wouldn't miss the court battle and never-ending "selected, not elected" chants. OTOH I'd hate to not see Kerry's inevitable Gore-like descent into madness. At least there might be a nice Terrezza melt-down, assuming it's possible for her to become even nuttier.

Posted by: Trevor on September 20, 2004 10:11 PM

Ace,
The problem with this poll is that it is a fill in the blank problem as opposed to a multiple choice. The real story here is that Democrats are far less likely to even know who is running on their ticket than Republicans.

Posted by: Ace on September 20, 2004 10:40 PM

I distrust the cited poll for Oregon. If Kerry loses here, Bush will be the next president (i.e., it will be a landslide). It seems to me that the poll has too many people listed as rural. I live in barking moonbat territory. I have never seen a Bush sign near me. No conservative wants to set off the crazies by putting up a sign. That is not meant as a joke or hyperbole. It is just the sort of tension that exists here.

We have vote by mail here. It is too easy to cheat here. When Phil Keisling was in charge of such things, I wrote him. My vote depends on some moonbat crazy government type looking at my signature of record (the one when I registered 30 years ago!!!!). This is totally asinine! Keisling, to his credit, did reply, but basically said that I was a lunatic to question the government.

I did not get a ballot once. I had to go down to the local election office. It was a damn zoo with ballots lying everywhere. It took a great effort wading through morons, before I finally found someone competent to figure out what was going on. My address had changed for absolutely no reason. I got a ballot which I added to the tumult there, but did it count? Was it negated by the ballot sent to the incorrect address? Phil Keisling said that I do not have the right to even know. Ballots once cast into the mess which is the system in Oregon, are secret, even to the person casting them. I have zero confidence in our system of voting. On the plus side, we have few electoral votes.

Mike

Posted by: Mike on September 21, 2004 10:21 AM

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Top Headlines

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

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[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]

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TJM definitively ranks the films of Billy Wilder, like Some Like It Hot

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Democrat Congresswoman Sara Jacobs cites Me-Again Kelly, Cavernous Nostrils, Alex Jones and Tuq'r Qarlson as proof that concerns about Trump's mental health are "bipartisan"
As Bonchie from Red State says: Know the op when you see it.

Leftists who have been drawing Frankendistricts for decades are suddenly upset about Republican line-drawing
Socialist usurper Obama cut commercials urging Virginians to vote for the bizarre "lobster" gerrymander -- but now says gerrymanders are so racist you guys
Obama is complaining about the new Louisiana map -- but here's the thing, the new map has much more compact and rational borders than the old racial gerrymander map
Pete Bootyjudge is whining too. But here's the Illinois gerrymander he supports.

Big Bonus! Under the new Florida congressional map, Debbie Wasserman Schultz will probably lose her seat
And she can't even go on The View because she's ugly a clump of stranger's hair in the bath-drain

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