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« Rather Inadequate | Main | Get Yourself Some Hot Fresh Coulter »
September 15, 2004

Panic Stations: Kerry Losing Lead in Ultra-Democratic Illinois; Tied in Democratic Stalwart Minnesota

Kerry's lead in reliably Democratic Illinois has gone from 13 to 4. From a solid lead, which would be expected, to a toss up.

A CNN/Gallup Poll now shows that it is now all knotted up at 45% in Al Franken's home state, Minnesota. Minnesota has been trending Republican lately, but it has always been a very reliable Democratic state.

John Kerry cannot win without Minnesota.

It's getting kind of sick. The battlegrounds are becoming Bush's base, and Kerry's base is becoming battlegrounds.


posted by Ace at 08:41 PM
Comments



I told a coworker two months ago it would be Bush 53% to Kerry 45%. He called me a fool.

I think I will be having a conversation with him tomorrow. And revising my estimate upward for Bush.

Posted by: Rocketeer on September 15, 2004 08:49 PM

Kerry Spot has him up in New Jersey. By four points!

Forget Dukakis. Kerry's looking like Mondale.

Posted by: See-Dubya on September 15, 2004 08:51 PM

Add New Jersey to "The New Battleground," according to KerrySpot

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguin on September 15, 2004 08:53 PM

Kerry campiagned for McGovern way back when. Perhaps he hopes to outdo his mentor with an even bigger landslide loss.

Posted by: Eric Pobirs on September 15, 2004 08:55 PM

As a lifelong Illinois resident, I object to the characterization "Ultra-Democratic Illinois".
Illinois happened to go to Clinton twice and Gore once, but it went for Bush, Reagan twice and even for Ford. Not very long ago every statewide office was held by a Republican. It just happens that the most recent cycle went to the Democrats. That's okay, the Democratic Governor is doing his best to ensure that it will go Republican next time.

I never believed for a minute that John Kerry could ever really win Illinois. Illinois is a red state that just happened to be blue last time.

Posted by: Thomas Warfield on September 15, 2004 09:14 PM

Illinois? I live here, and ... I'm just really surprised. Didn't we go for Bush 41 in 1988, though? I was nine at the time, so my memory isn't very clear.

Hey, who knows, I might participate in Bring Out Your Dead - I mean, Get Out The Vote :).

/lives in Cook County, AKA Heart of Blueness

Posted by: Sonetka on September 15, 2004 09:16 PM

While it is still a bit early to print the invitations to the inaugural ball, it isn’t too early to speculate about the Democrats getting a little anti-Nader blowback.

Up until now, keeping Nader off the ballot was viewed as a savvy, if hardball, way to potentially preserve victory in a couple of close states, thereby preventing a replay of Gore’s narrow loss. What happens, though, if Kerry continues to sink? Won’t there be a few voters on the left who will just get discouraged and stay home?

It is possible that by keeping Nader off the ballot, Democrats are denying their base an acceptable “protest vote” for the ineptitude of John F'n Kerry. This will depress turnout among voters who might not vote for Kerry, but would vote for down-ballot democrats. This could give Bush coattails that he didn’t have in 2000.

BTW, I have had trouble finding an authoritative source for where Nader will and won’t be on the ballot. Does anyone have a reference?

Posted by: David on September 15, 2004 09:22 PM

Kerry is simply the worst candidate in modern history. There is no--no--reason to vote for him. Only a fantastic hatred of Bush could possibly compel you to say that Kerry is "your man" or the "Presidential material".

Posted by: addison on September 15, 2004 10:23 PM

I moved from IL to OH last year, and I was happy with the realization that my vote would be better represented here in OH, since Chicago rules IL, or so I thought! It is totally unbelievable to me that IL is back within the margin-of-error, and seemingly so quickly, at that.

Posted by: JJofArcadia on September 16, 2004 12:36 AM

What makes this even more incredible is that the IL GOP has recently produced:

* A governor whose top aid is going to federal prison on corruption charges for selling illegal truck driving licences while said governor was Secretary of State for IL

* A senate candidate who withdrew from the race for forcing his ex-wife to go to sex clubs.

* A out of state replacement senate candidate who has called for reparations and makes Tah-RAY-sah Kerry sound level headed.

New York and Jersey took the brunt of the 9-11 attacks so I expected them to be more pro W this time around, but Illinios? The Dems should start thinking about 2008.

Posted by: WindyCity on September 16, 2004 11:06 AM
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Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
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Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
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Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
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REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
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