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« Iraqi Amnesty: Carrots and Swords | Main | More on Josh Marshall's Breathless Fakery as It Develops »
July 12, 2004

On Postponing the Election

Gee, I wonder if Paul Krugman is going to hyperventilate over this tomorrow.

Nick Kronos discusses the issue, although I think he misses the point. He talks about people having had their "minds changed" by a terrorist attack, and how such votes are just as good as any other.

That's not the main danger of a terrorist attack. I don't think that people are talking about contingency plans for postponing voting simply because a terrorist attack occurs in October and someone thinks it would be a good idea to have a "cooling off" period before elections, to let passions subside. At least, I hope that's not the sort of thing they're thinking about.

I personally am thinking of Democratic Primary Day 2000, better known as 9-11, when voting was simply cancelled. And even had it not been cancelled, no one was voting past 10:30 anyway, as we all had much more important concerns, such as stocking up on water and food and making sure that loved ones had made it home alive.

And some people, of course, were dead or in the hospital, while others were digging through hot, smoking rubble.

The main danger is that, either the day of voting or a few days before, terrorists blow up a few polling places, and thus suppress voting throughout America. Or that a major attack makes voting simply impossible or inadvisable in a big city.

Americans barely vote as it is; imagine the turnout when going to the local fire station could potentially result in death or maiming.

This could have all sorts of dire effects; oddly enough, though, such attacks would probably help Bush, because Republicans generally fare better with reduced turnout, and especially because most of these attacks will take place in cities.

In many states, the vote is a contest between the Republican rural areas and the Democratic cities. If bombs go off in Detroit or Dearborn polling places, for example, one could easily imagine the urban vote being badly depressed while the rural and suburban vote is less suppressed. And then Michigan, which might have gone to Kerry, would go to Bush.

The Constitution specifies the day upon which elections will be held. But what happens if events make it impossible to have a national vote on that day (by "national vote," I mean "all jurisdictions are able to vote")? What wins out? The Constitution or reality?

I think, on balance, we probably should just live with the consequences of a terrorist attack on or shortly before voting day. The trouble is that any other regime would put the power to decide whether to delay a vote or have a re-vote into someone's partisan hands, and no one in this country trusts the partisans of the other side.

Joshy Marshall would have conniptions about letting the Bush Administration decide to postpone an election; I honestly don't blame him. I sure wouldn't trust John Kerry or Al Gore to make such a decision, either.

However, if we agree that we will vote on Election Day come hell or high water, I don't want to hear the liberals like Josh Marshall demanding that we have a new vote or extended-voting-period should bombings damage Kerry's electoral chances. Either we agree, in advance, under what circumstances we might alter the rules and timing of voting, or we agree, also in advance, that whatever happens on Election Day, happens.

I don't want to experience what I know damn well will happen-- i.e., the liberals take a "wait and see" attitude as to which candidate a terrorist attack hurts, and then, if the attacks hurts Kerry, they then start demanding special rules after-the-fact.


posted by Ace at 10:23 PM
Comments



I cannot imagine anything that would cause a national election to be thrown without mutual agreement at the time that a postponement was in order. It would take an event that dwarfed 9/11 and if such a thing took place we'd have much bigger problems than keeping to the traditional date.

Posted by: Eric Pobirs on July 12, 2004 10:49 PM

I cannot imagine anything that would cause a national election to be thrown without mutual agreement at the time that a postponement was in order.

Don't kid yourself.

Look, if, on election day, millions of Americans have been prevented from voting but Kerry is the electoral college winner based upon the results of voting that day, do you really imagine that the Democrats are going to "mutually agree" to some new voting scheme that might upset the victory they already have in their hand?

And the reverse is true, too. Would Bush agree to have a second or third day of voting, when he won, as it might stand, on the first day of voting?

I wouldn't.

Would you?

Posted by: ace on July 12, 2004 10:55 PM

The trouble is, if we don't have a detailed, specific system in place before election day, we can't just wing it on the day and come to a "mutually agreeable solution."

Someone will be ahead on that day, and he'll know he's ahead, and that someone will not be particularly interested in having a second day of voting.

Posted by: ace on July 12, 2004 10:56 PM

Here's the Constitutional passage that, ostensibly, at least, will govern the outcome. I say "ostensibly," because there are enough or almost enough preening pricks on the Supreme Court to make it doubtful whether the actual text of the Constitution will be decisive. Below, I've edited heavily for brevity.

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: ...
...

"The Congress may determine the Time of chusing [sic] the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States."

First, notice what isn't there: There's no mention of a popular vote whatsoever; as nearly as I can tell, a State Legislature could make a law saying that they themselves will choose the electors with a dowsing rod. That's how stupidly beside the point all the talk for the last four years of Gore's having won a national majority of the popular vote is. It's only by the good graces of any given State Legislature that the popular vote of the given state is even taken. "National majority of the popular vote"? What f>cking popular vote are they talking about?

But to keep to the issue at hand, "The Congress may determine the Time of chusing [sic] the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States." As it happens, the manner of choosing in all 50 states is a state-wide popular vote, but it's apparently a matter of settled federal law that the "Time of chusing" is a particular day in November. If there's any question of a delay, it'll surely wind up in front of the Supreme Court again and what I think we have to hope is that there will be five or more hard-@sses with enough nerve to cite the law and say "Congress has chosen the 'Time of chusing' the electors, that date has come and gone, and there's the end of it." In an emergency, a firm hand in support of a decent, stable order is the better part of justice.

Since the State Legislatures determine the manner of choosing the electors, it's possible that there's precedent of giving them wide latitude in establishing laws governing emergencies during elections. There again, we have to hope we can once again find five or more hard-@sses on the Court to just read the state laws with an eye to a firm settlement, apply the laws firmly and without any respect, and be done.

But I think it's useful to go back to my first point, which is that the fat sacred cow, the popular vote, isn't to be found at all in the Constitutional clauses governing the election of the President. And like the Constitutional writers, I would avoid elevating any niceties about the popular vote over the selection of a good President and the firm imposition of an orderly succession.

Posted by: Doug on July 12, 2004 11:26 PM

Actually, there is a remedy in constitutional law dealing with the dates the electoral college is required to carry out their responsibilities. check out this link. If an election is not held in a particular state, it is up to that states various laws in place at that time to determine the process. The way I understand it also requires that if the states electoral college members cannot/willnot complete their obligations, then that state's electoral votes will be deducted from the total electoral votes and a new calculation used to determine the number of electoral votes needed to win the election.

Do a google and you'll come up with some interesting facts and laws that deal precisely with this issue.

Posted by: Madfish Willie on July 12, 2004 11:27 PM

After reading that link again, it states:

TITLE 3 > CHAPTER 1 > Sec. 2.

Sec. 2. - Failure to make choice on prescribed day

Whenever any State has held an election for the purpose of choosing electors, and has failed to make a choice on the day prescribed by law, the electors may be appointed on a subsequent day in such a manner as the legislature of such State may direct.

I guess there has to be an election held... I wonder if state laws are in place to deal with the possibility that an election cannot be held? An interesting question, to be sure.

Posted by: Madfish Willie on July 12, 2004 11:35 PM

"Whenever any State has held an election": Well, yes, there has to be an election, i.e. a choosing, but that's not the same as a popular vote. Choosing by ouija board would be election by ouija board.

I'm only insisting on this point (and giving the ridiculous example of the ouija board) in order to put the whole holy matter of the popular headcount in perspective. As far as I know, the State Legislatures have all passed written laws to the effect that the electors will be chosen by a popular vote of some sort, so in that sense, it's a moot point. But I'm saying that if push comes to shove, it was a lot more important in the minds of the Framers, and it's a lot more important in my mind, that a capable successor be chosen and an orderly succession be maintained than that it be done by an exquisitely inclusive popular vote.

A good President who comes to office through some irregularity following on a terrorist catastrophe is more to be honored than a bad one who comes to office with all the right headcounts.

Posted by: Doug on July 12, 2004 11:52 PM

Ace:

You hit the nail on the head in your last paragraph. That is EXACTLY what the liberals will do: they will try whatever they think will favor them, and the heck with everything else.

Posted by: BattleofthePyramids on July 13, 2004 12:20 AM

Gentlemen: Ironically, the problem of whether (and if so, how) to adjust our presidential election in the event of 'disturbances' seems similar to the problem of liberal judges who re-interpret the Constitution to conform with their social views--and will likely have the same disastrous effect.

Both problems are of the 'slippery slope' or incremental nature: If the Constitution is *not* the supreme law of the land, it can be violated by whoever has the cojones to do so. If that's allowed, where does it stop? As several commenters have noted, the party who lost the 'regular' election will undoubtedly claim that some exigency somewhere in the country was serious enough to trigger the 'no-fair, re-do' provision. From there we're only a blink away from total chaos, as anarchists set off bombs simply to throw our election process into disarray.

Thus the answer to the 'when to postpone' question *must be*: "under no circumstances." If this were to result in a president being elected by even a tiny percentage of the electorate, so be it. To decide otherwise would be to *invite* chaos.

Posted by: sf on July 13, 2004 09:55 AM

Pssst... Ace - small correction.

The election was postponed on 9/11 *2001*, not 2000.

TK
NYC

Posted by: Thom on July 13, 2004 11:28 AM

Shit . . . I mean damn . . . I mean for f**kin crying out loud! One more thing to worry about. Glad you've raised the point though. You all can take care of it. I'm going surfing, see you in the water.

Posted by: dano on July 13, 2004 02:24 PM

A whole lot of these potential
problems would simply not arise
at all, if we switched to voting
by mail. Oregon already votes 100%
by mail, and Washington [where I live]
and California are about 50%.
So it's not a radical or untested idea.

Also eliminates idiotic complaints
about racial profiling or "intimidation" --
how can you be intimidated by receiving and
mailing a letter? -- and eliminates
most errors, because you have plenty of
time to think, read, discuss, and mark
carefully.

Posted by: ockham on July 13, 2004 10:21 PM
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