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June 02, 2004
We Link, You DecideWell, so far today, I don't have anything interesting to say. So I'll do a link-dump of things I've read and found interesting. Jay Nordlinger's column is pretty much a blog in column format, and just about everything he writes today is interesting. Media bias, an Iranian dissident calling the US "our only friend in the world," and Edward Jay Epstein's debunking of the conventional liberal media wisdom that a Mohammed Atta-Al-Ani meeting in Prague has been "disproved." It hasn't been "disproved." Says who? Says George Tenet, morons. Catch up. A Harris poll shows American optimism on the rise. Here's what I find interesting: Asked in a Harris poll if their personal situation has improved over the past five years, 56 percent of Americans said it had, up 7 percent from last year. For a while I've been attempting to prove a theory. I think that people view their personal economic situation fairly positively, but then rate the national economy poorly. There's a big disparity there. And there shouldn't be. The national economy is, after all, just made up of millions of individuals. If individuals are mostly saying their own economic situation has improved, then, logically, that ought to be reflected in how they rate the national economy. But it isn't, because the media continues telling everyone the national economy is in a shambles. Thus the disparity between personal and national economic ratings. I wish some blogger with access to historical Gallup polls would examine the gap between these two measurements under Clinton, as compared to Bush. I'm guessing there was no disparity between the two numbers under Clinton, or even a slight bias in favor of the national, not-me-personally economic rating. And that's because the media was determined to let everyone know the great economic news. When will I know that George Bush will be safely elected? When the media, doing its economic reports, starts using that B-roll footage of the US Treasury printing out money on a press, montage'd with cash registers beeping and opening and slamming shut. That's the visual and audio cue the media uses to indicate "We're all doing okay!" I saw that montage eighteen bazillion times when Clinton was President. They'd even run it for entirely unrelated stories. Clinton could be talking about trimming operating costs at the Commerce Department, but the liberal media would still run that fricking printing press montage, punctuated by the Monopoly guy handing poor children a $500 bill. So-- when we will we get the printing-press/cash-register montage? Ummm, how about the next of Never? Byron York takes down the Ace of Spades HQ's favorite reporter, Dana Milbank. Good stuff. The media has apparently decided that slanting alone won't cut it; they've decided it's now okay to actually lie. Which leads directly into Howell Raines' delcaration that yes, it's time for the media to start (ahem) actively indulging in deliberate disinformation, in order to convince stupid Americans of the liberal truth via useful lies. It pains me to link Andrew Sullivan, but his commentary on this is must-reading. And then he segues right into whining about gay marriage. Oh, well. Just stop reading when you get to "That Virginia Law." Another piece on Atta/al-Ani, and again must reading. I think I got this from Instapundit, which means that everyone's already read it, but it's so damn good it can't hurt to quote it again: At least two separate lines of evidence point to a pre-9/11 Saddam-Osama axis of evil. The Czechs have always maintained that 9/11 mastermind Mohammad Atta met with an Iraqi intelligence officer, Ahmad Khalil Ibrahim Samir al-Ani, in Prague in April, 2001. The CIA, on the other hand, has maintained Atta was in the US at the time. But in fact, Atta's whereabouts cannot be established between April 5 and 11, and on the 4th, he and another of the 9/11 hijackers cashed an $8,000 check in Virginia Beach, VA. Atta and al-Ani also apparently met in May and June of 2000 after which Atta flew from Prague to Newark. It all sounds like Atta was an Iraqi intelligence "asset," and al-Ani was his handler. Newsweek is now claiming that the whole story was a fiction made up by Ahmed Chalabi (wasn't everything?) but people who've followed the trail closely aren't buying it. Newsweek may not believe in an Iraq/al-Qaeda connection now, but they used to. In their January 11, 1999 issue, they wrote: "Saddam Hussein, who has a long record of supporting terrorism, is trying to rebuild his intelligence network overseas-- assets that would allow him to establish a terrorism network. U.S. sources say he is reaching out to Islamic terrorists, including some who may be linked to Osama bin Laden, the wealthy Saudi exile accused of masterminding the bombing of two U.S. embassies in Africa last summer." Well, as I said once before in this article, that was then, this is now. Then, the Clinton Administration wanted a connection, and even that paragon of honesty, Richard Clarke, told the Washington Post there were links, a statement the Post would duly print in January of 1999. Now, with a Republican administration, Clarke will not admit, and the media establishment will not publish, anything suggesting a connection. Damning. Utterly damning. We may not have smoking-gun proof of The Connection yet, but we do have smoking-gun proof of media bias. Saddam and OBL were connected when Clinton said they were; they could never have any connection when Bush said they did. Did someone say "cowbell"? Larry Kudlow repeats what can't be repeated often enough by my lights: The much-maligned factory sector is booming. Not rising. Not improving. Booming. According to just-released data from the Institute of Supply Management, which tracks the manufacturing sector, new orders, production, order backlogs, export orders, and employment were very strong in May. The industrial sector is so strong that the speed of supplier deliveries has hit its highest level since April 1979. This means that firms cannot produce fast enough to meet rising demand, which is why commodity prices continue to climb. As a result, capacity use keeps growing and inventories are still too low in relation to skyrocketing sales. Meanwhile, new factory hiring has jumped to a 31-year high, the best since 1973. Of more than 400 industrial firms surveyed, 36 percent added workers in May while just 7 percent had fewer workers. This is another nail in the coffin of the jobless recovery. As the inventory-rebuilding process ratchets up over the next year, expect even more job creation to follow. Election-year battleground states in the Midwest industrial heartland are reporting significantly lower unemployment rates compared to one year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In April, Michigan registered a 6 percent jobless rate compared to 7.2 percent in April 2003. Ohio’s jobless rate fell to 5.8 percent from 6.2 percent. Pennsylvania’s dropped to 4.9 percent from 5.4 percent. West Virginia reported 5.4 percent from 6.6 percent a year earlier. Missouri’s jobless tally dropped to 4.5 percent from 5.5 percent. Imagine, in your head, the Treasury printing presses churning out hundred-dollar bills, and Macy's cash-registers beeping and blinking like an old Coleco football game. Because that's the only place you're going to see it. Correction: I made a dunderheaded goof reporting on the Harris poll. I've edited out my error, because I certainly don't want to report erroneous "facts," but mostly because it was really, really embarassing. Thanks to Nathan for pointing it out in the comments. Ouch. posted by Ace at 02:44 PM
CommentsMethinks you mis-read the stats, slightly. It's "up 7 percent", meaning up from 49% last year, not up from 7%. Other than that, Great Stuff! I love your site, because your opinions seem identical to mine, only yours are funnier. Posted by: Nathan on June 2, 2004 04:39 PM
Thanks for the correction and the praise. Posted by: ace on June 2, 2004 04:55 PM
Take off blog hat, put on Political Scientist Hat: "56% say their situation has improved, up from seven percent. Now, I'm no statistician, but I do believe that's outside the MoE." That's not UP FROM 7%, but UP 7%, in other words last year 49% of Americans said their personal situation had improved. Big difference. 2)"For a while I've been attempting to prove a theory. I think that people view their personal economic situation fairly positively, but then rate the national economy poorly. There's a big disparity there. And there shouldn't be. The national economy is, after all, just made up of millions of individuals. If individuals are mostly saying their own economic situation has improved, then, logically, that ought to be reflected in how they rate the national economy." Your hunch is a pretty good one and it's something that others have already tested. It's known as "Sociotropic" behavior. When we talk about "economic" voting, the media tends to portray it as "pocketbook behavior." Which doesn't make sense, if you think about it. Because, how many people really lost jobs in the past recession? The difference, at the height of the recession compared to the height of the economic boom is what, 2%? So people can't really vote their own pocketbook, because if they did, incumbents would always win. So you are right. People vote "other people's pocketbooks", but how do you know what other people's pocketbooks are? Again, how many people know somebody out of work? Well, everybody knows somebody out of work, but this is ALWAYS the case. "Structural unemployment" is basically the number of people who will always be out of work for some reason or another. So the real important question to ask about is not the unemployment number, per se, but to what do you ATTRIBUTE those numbers to. Effects are usually clear, it's causes that are problematic. So your hunch, guess, theory, whatever you want to call it is spot on. For the most part, people's perception of the economy is just that: a perception. And how are perceptions shaped? To a large degree the media shapes our perceptions of the economy. Whoa! That was too long. Sorry. Kudos, though. Posted by: Rusty Shackleford on June 2, 2004 05:16 PM
I should clarify: ...and the cowbell thing. Posted by: nathan on June 2, 2004 07:39 PM
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In more marketing for Project Hail Mary, scientists say they've found the biosigns indicating life growing on an alien planet. It's not proof, just signatures of chemicals that are produced by biological metabolism, and it could be nothing, but scientists think it's a strong sign that this planet is inhabited by something.
In a paper published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, a team of scientists announced the detection of dimethyl sulfide (along with a similar detection of dimethyl disulfide) in the atmosphere of an exoplanet called K2-18b. This is actually the second detection of dimethyl sulfide made on this planet, following a tentative detection in 2023. He means they tried to prove the signal was caused by things other than dimethyl sulfide but they could not.
Artemis moon shot a go, scheduled for 6:24 Eastern time tonight
Great marketing arranged by Amazon to promote Project Hail Mary. Okay not really but it does work out that way.
What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
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