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June 22, 2005
The War's Over?I made a similar point a long time ago. Back when there was just as much violence as this recent murder-Tet. Is the war over? It depends on your terms. The "war" is over (and has been for two years) in this sense: The "war" waged by terrorists cannot be "won" in any meaningful fashion. They can kill and maim and slaughter -- just like Al Qaeda can blow up sunbathers in Bali -- but they cannot achieve any political objectives greater than killing and maming and slaughtering. Generally, killing is a means in warfare to achieving a geopolitical goal. Al Qaeda must content itself, both in Iraq and elsewhere, to making killing the end sought in and of itself. Does anyone really expect that, if we departed Iraq tomorrow, Iraqis would just willingly hand Iraq back over to their former Sunni masters and their new/old Al Qaeda compatriots? Of course not. It's inconceivable that an armed 75% of the country would turn over power to the 25% that has abused and murdered them for 50 years. Only Europeans could possibly be such pussified cowards. What would happen, were we to depart and the terrorism to continue, would be the famous Iraqi Civil War we've heard so much about. And the Sunnis -- and their terrorist allies -- would be slaughtered. And viciously slaughtered, ethnic-cleansing sort of slaughtered, and quite frankly, it would be their fault. Though the Sunnis don't realize it-- we're in Iraq now chiefly to protect them from the well-deserved mass-butchery they would suffer were they to continue to support the murder of those who refuse to knuckle under their nasty form of minority rule. I don't support a quick withdrawal because I would like to give Iraq -- and the Sunnis, too -- a chance for a peaceful future. But in any event, Iraq will have a more peaceful future, whether the Sunnis end their support for terrorism or not. That peaceful future will come either after the Sunnis join the political process and accept their new status as a minority population with as much power as a minority usually has, or after the Kurds and Shi'as begin leveling their cities and neighborhoods with indiscriminate mortar-fire. The war is over. The carnage continues, because we are dealing with a foe who is not concerned with tangible geopolitical results, but merely slaughter for the sake of slaughter. But while the slaughter continues, the war is over. And it has been for quite some time. The Trouble With Exiting Now: We'd have to arm the legitimate Iraqi government with bombers and tanks and artillery and such. Within a month or so those tanks and bombers and guns would be blowing the living shit out of every restive Sunni city, town, neighborhood, and hamlet. America would be blamed for "supporting an ally just as bad as Saddam." We wouldn't be doing anything like that, of course; at some point it does become justified to use the same tactics against your enemy -- indiscriminate slaughter of civilians -- they use against you. Especailly when, unlike the United States, your military is neither powerful enough nor disciplined enough to win without killing lots of innocent civilians. Still, a PR nightmare. Are the mounting deaths of US soldiers worth avoiding that nightmare of bad world opinion? At the present, I guess yes, as there are hopeful signs the Sunnis are turning around and willing to end their terrorist insurgency. But if this doesn't pan out-- pull out, arm the Kurds and Shi'as to the teeth, and let them do the sorts of nasty things we won't do ourselves. And just take the shrieking from Excitable Andy and his newfound ally Katha Politt. Loose Shit Gotten Straight: Link should be fixed now. posted by Ace at 03:32 PM
CommentsLink doesn't work. Loose shit. Posted by: Iblis on June 22, 2005 03:36 PM
ABC radio said that Al Qaida has had no trouble recruiting soldiers to go to Iraq and Afghanistan. Then they say that Al Qaida is using 12 and 13 kids to fight. Idiots work at ABC. If anyone in MSM read a history book, they would learn that when armies are down to using 12 and 13 kids, that army is toast. For instance, the Nazi's did not use kids until the last week of the war in defending Berlin. The war is over. Iraq just has to put up with as many bombings as Europe had in the 70s and 80s. Posted by: Jake on June 22, 2005 03:48 PM
The main problem in the "war on terror" has always been in establishing tactical vs. strategic goals, establishing theaters of conflict, and -- perhaps most importantly -- naming the enemy. We are engaged in a conflict unlike any we have ever fought before. We cannot give our enemy a simple label -- are they "jihadis", "Islamic militants", "Wahhabist ideologues" or just "terrorists"? We have theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan, but what about Sudan, the central Asian 'stans, and the Philippines? How do we measure progress in the overall war? The U.S. military is doing an astounding job. Seriously: they will be a historical benchmark for excellence in this kind of warfare, mark my words. But for all their tactical brilliance, the U.S. military cannot achieve a strategic goal. Why not? Because they have not been given a truly strategic objective -- their essential job is not to obliterate the enemy and force his capitulation. Rather, the U.S. military is being used as a humanitarian tool -- a "flying wedge" behind which democracy enters the Islamic world. I think this is part of the reason behind the ambivalence towards the war (apart from the usual leftist animosity towards any expression of U.S. power, that is). We are such a rich and powerful country that we can wage war in two major theaters and post soldiers to a multitude of other hot spots and not even feel it here at home. It doesn't feel like we're at war. We have no real sense of peril, and thus no real sense of relief at victory nor sadness at defeat. Success or failure in a strategic sense will not be obvious for many years, perhaps decades. We will only know if our gamble has succeeded when our children are grown, if then. I suspect that only historians of future generations will know if America "won" or "lost" this war. Posted by: Monty on June 22, 2005 03:53 PM
Trackback link not working either. Posted by: Mark in Mexico on June 22, 2005 04:43 PM
Well said Monty Posted by: luraw on June 22, 2005 04:47 PM
I heart civil war (cause I hate chimpy) Posted by: A Democrat on June 22, 2005 04:52 PM
b>WE ARE WINNING THE GWOT - The MSM just doesn't get it! See my comment in this thread over at the Winds of Change: ***** WE ARE WINNING THE GWOT - The MSM just doesn't get it! To All: OK I'm all for debating this but perhaps we can swing some of this energy in the Blogos to a useful purpose. Yes, President Bush could have done better in stating his position but couldn't we all. Give the man a brake. FDR did not have a MSM which was rooting for the enemy. I believe he is sincere when he says we will assist the people in the ME to secure freedom. President Bush in the past and Secretary Rice yesterday delivered a message to the ME leaders. A strategic shift in our strategic foreign policy in the region. We will no longer support repressive government for the sake of regional stability. This is a radical change from our past policy over the last 50 years followed by both Rep and Dem administrations alike including Bush II: [...] Yes, we found no WMD but when the truth finally comes out it will be found that most of the WMD was moved to Syria and Lebanon in the run to Baghdad. Do you remember the "accidental" straffing of the Russian diplomatic corps on a run for the Syrian border with other vehicles. What do you suppose they were covering their tracks on? Do you remember the large quantity of chem weapons that one of Zarqawi cell was intercepted with enroute from Syria to Amman, Jordan to release a huge toxic plume? The VX gas had markings from Saddam and I believe the Russians. See this thread re Iraq and Lybia were on the verge of going nuclear that they had succesfully concealed from the IAEA: [...] The biggest challenge has been the expectations of the American people that has been generated by the false perception of the GWOT as protrayed by the MSM. [...] Posted by: Ron Wright on June 22, 2005 05:01 PM
Angelo Codevilla has been saying we should have done that from day 1. Posted by: Joshua Chamberlain on June 22, 2005 05:29 PM
Wonderful perspective. Thank you for saying it so clearly. I'm currently using as a cudgel on NYT forums - with proper attribution. Thanks. Posted by: Tom v G on June 22, 2005 06:02 PM
So I guess the GWOT is our first luke-warm war. The question is are we properly set up and equipped to win it. Hot war is easy. Build lots of things that explode and drop them on things that aren't yours. In a cold war you build bigger things that explode and just aim them at things that aren't yours. This luke-warm, mama bear of a war is tricky. To our advantage it requires cunning, creativity and guts, which I think we have. Our only disadvantage is we have a lot more stuff to blow up than they do. Posted by: planetmoron on June 22, 2005 07:27 PM
Monty : We are such a rich and powerful country that we can wage war in two major theaters and post soldiers to a multitude of other hot spots and not even feel it here at home. It doesn't feel like we're at war. We have no real sense of peril, and thus no real sense of relief at victory nor sadness at defeat. Well said, Monty! I will add that one reason we don't "feel it" at home is that it is all being fought on money Bush borrowed from his Chinese and Japanese bankers. Remember, your job against the (1) "Evildoers", (2) The few that hijacked the Religion of Peace, (3) The true but unsaid enemy - most Muslims......take your pick is to follow Bush and A. Travel B. Shop. C. Enjoy your tax cuts if you are in the Top 10%. D. Do something nice for a neighbor. Thats it, Monty! No sacrifice is expected except by "The Heroes" - Cops and 1st Responders making a killing on OT - or the real heroes - the 350,000 Americans that are troops assignable to combat and the half million in vital combat support - and the thousands of CIA and State Dept employees in harms way as part of their duties. Wright sez - Yes, we found no WMD but when the truth finally comes out it will be found that most of the WMD was moved to Syria and Lebanon in the run to Baghdad. Sorry Wright, that neocon and Israeli concocted dog won't hunt. "Secret buried Iraqi WMD" was just a ploy to lure the US into attacking Syria and Lebanon to have US blood and treasure used to defeat Israel's enemies while the clever Israelis and their neocons got a free ride. Now they are on us to invade Iran, a country with almost 4 times the population and 4 times the land area of Iraq, to get rid of the "vast nuclear threat" that mainly threatens Israel - assuring us that the "hungry for Democracy" Iranians will throw rosepetals at out feet after the "cakewalk". Ain't gonna happen. America is gullible enough to be coaxed into believing adept liars once in a while, but not twice in short succession. It's been two years - all the scientific and most of the military leadership interrogated, all facilities inspected, paperwork examined ----all the reports are now in. No WMD. And presumably, if all those "vast stockpiles" were buried in Syria and Lebanon by the "Evildoers", presumably those "Evildoers" mustering and going into Iraq to commit attacks against US troops and Iraqi forces wouldn't have minded taking a few nerve gas or anthrax bombs back in with them from those "vast stockpiles". Yet none! Do you remember the large quantity of chem weapons that one of Zarqawi cell was intercepted with enroute from Syria to Amman, Jordan to release a huge toxic plume? The VX gas had markings from Saddam and I believe the Russians. It wasn't VX. It was some industrial chemical. Not WMD. See this thread re Iraq and Lybia were on the verge of going nuclear that they had succesfully concealed from the IAEA We found nothing in Iraq indicating they had done anything with nuclear since the Gulf War. WE ARE WINNING THE GWOT - The MSM just doesn't get it! OK I'm all for debating this but perhaps we can swing some of this energy in the Blogos to a useful purpose. First, it isn't a GWOT. We could give a rat's ass about the IRA, Tamil Tigers, ETA, or the terror-zombies fighting other terror-zombies in the Congo. It is a war against radical Islam or mainstream Islam - depending on your view, with the challenge of China soon to be upon us. Second, if you wish to enlist the energy of the blogs, the blogs must continue to remain somewhat credible -- and they are credible only if they are not serving as tools for Zionists and the likes of Chalabi - with hysterical claims about "vast Iraqi WMD stockpiles".
Posted by: Cedarford on June 22, 2005 07:59 PM
When will the U.S. start supporting the troops? I'm still reading about how they haven't armored the Humvees properly, and soldiers are asking their families to buy them armor protection. WTF. Won't anybody help these people? Please don't reply about Dems or durbin or anyone else's words. They are just words. They don't hurt and they don't help. Just like when the WH talks about supporting the troops. Posted by: Robert on June 22, 2005 08:33 PM
Well stated Ace! Posted by: Len - KC on June 22, 2005 09:46 PM
re: 7:59 pm [Yawn] I'm suddenly very sleepy. Must be time for bed! Posted by: BrewFan on June 22, 2005 10:02 PM
Cedarford: You know I have spent time and credibility defending you in the past. So I trust that you will believe me on this: You are just priceless. For sheer entertainment value, your posts are hard to beat. You careen between penetrating insights, genuinely funny humor, and wacko invective directed at Zionists/China/Main-Street-Republicans/Whatever with such abandon that it leaves me giddy. Many who hang out here at AOSHQ have called upon Ace to ban you. Wisely, Ace has not done so. Fight the good fight, buddy. At your best, I actually learn something. At your worst, you crack me up. Posted by: Michael on June 22, 2005 10:16 PM
"only Europeans..." and Diick Durbin. Good post. I like it when you think, Ace. ...I mean 'do a thought piece' Hell you know what I mean... *reads more* wait... is Cedarford saying, "It's all the JOOOOOOOOOOOs"? Posted by: Claire on June 22, 2005 10:30 PM
Michael - The whole Ledeen "Onto Syria, onto Iran, onto Saudi Arabia noble Americans! Faster, faster, please" was predicated on WMDS, secret stockpiles. After 2 years, with Iraq a mess, soon to pass Vietnam as the 3rd most expensive war in US history in real dollars, with the volunteer military in serious trouble - there is no support for fighting more of Israel's enemies. Maybe Bush is still convinced from words he hears from Jesus that they will be cakewalks of liberation...and help prepare the Rapture ----but Congress and the public want no more widening of the war. Last year China built or bought 12 subs. The US built one and scrapped 3. Yesterday, China launched it's first long range Fleet Ballistic Missile in a flawless test, a missile that carries 10 stolen from us (the design) W-76 100-300KT thermonuclear bombs. A missile capable of hitting almost anywhere in the US while the Trident-type subs they are building (one deployed so far) lurk in Chinese coastal waters. Beating our estimation of their capabilities by 5 years. Their Airforce has sophisticated Russian and American (from our "friends" the Israelis) avionics and missiles, and is now the world's 3rd most powerful, soon to be second most powerful - after doubling in a decade. ACE - I guess the "time to declare victory and let the Shia and Kurds kill the Sunnis that killed us will be after the 2006 Congressional elections. If the Reps get pounded and Bush looks like another inept Jimmy Carter domestically and with his foreign policy results...that would be a good time to pull the plug and enjoy the Sunni Arab slaughter - which I disagree - we won't get blamed for - since no one else wishes to come in and "protect" them. Britain's about ready to bail as is, and our remaining shreds of the "Coalition of the Willing " have just one thing they are asking Bush..."When??" Posted by: Cedarford on June 22, 2005 11:00 PM
Way to kill the thread Cedaford. :P You are right that it is not a GWOT, its a GWO Islamic Terror, and we don't have the guts to call it that lest we be seen as UN-PC. However your argument that Ledeen's call against the despots in the middle east were predicated on WMDs is wrong. Ledeen has been consistant over the years in calling for the overthrow of Iran's government, because of the threat to freedom it poses, especially for Iranians, how it has crippled the culture, economy, and future of Iran. Iran's imminent attainment of WMDs has just added urgencey to his call. Quite frankly I think we should widen the war into Syria, as that is the major gateway for foreign terrorists. Iran has been fairly clever in keeping most badguys away from its own borders to avoid just such a provocation. Rummy has been arguing for it for a while, but the Bushies haven't been doing much on reminding and explaining how and why we're fighting. Taking out Syria would also have the benefit of strengthening the nascent Lebbanese democracy, as Syria is the prime backer of the anti-democratic forces there. Posted by: Iblis on June 23, 2005 11:09 AM
Iblis - So, if you favor the US military widening the war, "taking out" more countries to either protect Israel's territorial gains or "nation build and let democracy flourish" ----take your choice --- I presume you have written the Prez and Congressional Reps with your support of the Ledeen option, maybe even Ledeen or other neocons. How have they responded? Do they think the restoration of the Draft is a good idea? Any allies they think would join us? Or do they think America would have to go it alone and foot all the costs in lives and treasure?? Ending the tax cuts and imposing War Taxes to save the "Noble People Hungry for Democracy" from their past choices in Gov't in Iran and Syria and Lebanon? Any neocon volunteering up their kids if we do invade more Muslim countries? As for Ledeen, of course he has been consistent - the Likud strategy is unchanged since 1996 with one reprioritization: First Iraq, then Syria, then Iran, then Saudi Arabia, (then the Likudniks are free to "Transfer" the Pals to Jordan) Faster, faster, America....Faster, please! Ledeen is geting nervous about the looming Iranian nuke threat to Israel, so he is pushing for invading them first these days, not Syria per the Likud's original timetable. As with Iraq, he is saying hoards of Iranians wait to welcome us as liberators, oil will pay for it, a "cakewalk". ACE was saying that at a certain point in Iraq - if we continue to blow 1-2 billion a week, and lose 10-15 soldiers a week while the Iraqis sit by and the Sunnis we are protecting continue to kill us and sabotage nation-building - the time may come to go home. China is rising, the flood of cheap oil never happened, and our "Coalition of the Willing" is basically unwilling to stay much longer and certainly unwilling to embark on new adventures on the neocon schedule. No derailing of the thread intended. Just that America's best interests require us to diverge from Michael Ledeen's & Co best interests. Posted by: Cedarford on June 23, 2005 12:59 PM
Why is it that Liberals are so quick to invoke the spectre of Vietnam, which at the time they claimed didn't matter at all to us or anyone else, except the Vietnamese? Vietnam was a defeat that we still have not gotten over. Nor has the world forgotten that we lacked resolve, that if our enemy could kill enough of us over a long enough time we'd give up and leave, abandoning our allies to mass murder. Though Vietnam really did not have strategic value to us, the Middle East DOES! Two thirds of all the world's oil must be protected from interruption and even worse price shocks than we've already had! We cannot prove the terrorists right: that if they kill enough of us over a long enough time, we'll give up and leave. If we must fight until the next millenium then so be it! The consequences of running are that great. Posted by: 72 VIRGINS on June 23, 2005 01:23 PM
Back to the JOOOOS eh Cedaford? Dude the one note whistle act has GOT to stop. You're self-caricaturing. Actually I'm in favor of taking out regimes sending agents to destablize our newly created allies. And I really don't understand your antipathy towards our intrests and Israel's intrests coinciding vis-a-vis Iran. To Iran we're the great Satan, not Israel, and its got nothing to do with our support of them. Its because of the power we have, our culture, and our freedom. They see the US as a rival power for influence and control in the middle east. The idea of the Persian Empire has never died, even if it now has an Islamic cast to it. The fact that we give aid to Israel is just further proof of our evilness. If your wish was granted, and every Jew was wiped off the face of the earth right as you're reading this, they'd still hate us, and they'd still be trying to destroy us. That's their faith. Either everyone is a muslim, or heaven will never come. Israel just gives them a convient vent for the frustrations of their own oppressed peoples. Yes China is a threat, but like the Soviets, they're rational, to a much greater degree than the Islamo-fascists. Not believing in an afterlife will make you very reluctant to risk what you've got. And the Chinese have alot, and are gaining more day by day. They're not going to have to launch an attack, they'll be able to buy what they want soon enough. In other words, you deal with the guys shooting at you right now, and keep an eye on the guy who'd like to stab you in the back. Posted by: Iblis on June 23, 2005 02:34 PM
If your wish was granted, and every Jew was wiped off the face of the earth right as you're reading this, they'd still hate us, and they'd still be trying to destroy us. That's their faith. Either everyone is a muslim, or heaven will never come. Israel just gives them a convient vent for the frustrations of their own oppressed peoples. Good point Iblis. Reminds me of North Korea's indoctrination of hatred for the US. The Korean war was started by us they claim, and their poverty (and anyhing else they don't like) is because of us and when they triumph over us all will be well. Erie, isn't it?
Posted by: 77 Roman Catholics on June 23, 2005 06:22 PM
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