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« Bush Wins Iowa | Main | Weekend Guest Blogger »
November 05, 2004

What's Another Word for Five Points? Oh Yeah: Mandate Three Points, But Still a Mandate

RETRACTED: USAToday's data was behind for most of the day. It now shows the three point spread we had all previously thought the election was won by.

Thanks to Rorochub for the alert fact-checking.

Update! PoliPundit notes that, historically speaking, it's fairly uncommon for a President to cross the 50% threshhold.

What follows is wrong.

Thanks to Paul for the head's up, and Free Republic for the actual cite.

Awesome. 52-47. That's hellagood. If someone had told me a week ago that Bush would win by five points, my eyes would have spun like slot-machine rollers like in Tex Avery cartoons.

Update: Whoops, Paul came through on the cite too. Thanks, Paul.

Caution! Retraction May Be in the Works: Readers are throwing cold water on this 52-47 figure. Unfortunately, I'm too damn tired to try to figure out if they're right (check out the time stamp on the Trump post).

So, for right now, I'll just say there have been serious doubts raised, doubts I can't adjudicate at the moment.


posted by Ace at 04:10 PM
Comments



What, techinically, defines a "blowout"?

Posted by: fat kid on November 5, 2004 04:19 PM

Hey Ace. Where did these USA Today numbers come from. Everything I've seen everywhere else had the popular count at 58mil for Bush to 54.5 for Kerry and that rounded out to a 51-48 margin. this is the first I've seen of anything stating a 5 point margin.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:27 PM

I just checked CNN and they have the vote count at 59,459,765 for Bush (51.5%) to 55,949,407 for Kerry (48.5). I don't think that USA Today count is current.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:31 PM

Here it is at Yahoo too.

Posted by: Paul B. on November 5, 2004 04:36 PM

That's weird. Yahoo only has 91% of precincts reporting and CNN has 99%. That's where the difference is....and Yahoo says theirs is updated as of 4:35 today...I'm confused.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:40 PM

Here's the CNN link..

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:42 PM

Sorry, not computer literate. Don't know how to do the live link thing.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:43 PM

Rorochub is right, that USAToday count isn't current. If you click on "Results" in the upper left of that page, you get to another page showing the vote "totals" that show Bush at ~56 million and Kerry at ~52 million. My guess is these figures don't include a lot of CA, OR, and WA votes...

I'm still satisfied with a 3% victory and an absolute majority of votes.

Posted by: on November 5, 2004 04:46 PM

Yes, please don't get me wrong. I'm satisfied with the 51.5 to 48.5 margin too. I just didn't want Ace to post old numbers. I think the 51.5 total for Bush is very significant.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 04:49 PM

The smaller numbers don't include all of New York.

For some reason the Yahoo, C-span, and USA Today sights only have New York with 3% of its precincts reporting.

Posted by: Master of None on November 5, 2004 05:01 PM

Wizbang and Powerline are both posting the 52-47 thing too...I just emailed the Powerline guys. It's not a huge deal, but I just don't want a mischaracterization of the final vote total - give the other side more rotten eggs to throw at us..

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 05:03 PM

Thanks for trying to get the correct information, guys, but right now I am dead tired and I can't follow your analyses. I'm tempted just to retract on your say-so, but I'd rather try to figure out if you're right first, and I just don't have that in me now.

That USAToday page says it reloads every three minutes. How can it be behind? I checked at 4:37 and it said last updated 4:35.

Posted by: ace on November 5, 2004 05:05 PM

That's fine Ace. I just wanted to let you know. I just re-checked everything again and Yahoo and USA today still have only 91% of the precincts reporting. CNN clearly has 99% and the higher reported vote totals.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 05:11 PM

FYI - CBS News (don't laugh guys) is reporting very similar numbers to CNN

http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 05:15 PM

You don't have a timestamp.

Posted by: Karol on November 5, 2004 05:19 PM

Not sure what you mean Karol. The CNN numbers say they were updated @ 3:03 EST and the CBS numbers say they were updated @ 4:20 EST. Not sure that's relevant since Yahoo and USA Today are only reporting 91% vs 99% for CNN and similar numbers for CBS

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 05:23 PM
adjudicate
Anyone else seen "way of the gun" - heh.
Posted by: fat kid on November 5, 2004 05:35 PM

Fat Kid,

I've seen it. For the past week I've been trying to find a .wav or mp3 of Sarah Silverman's "Psycho Bitch" baby-fucker speech from the beginning of the movie. You don't happen to know where I could find such a thing, do you?


Karol,

On the individual entry I do.

Rorochub,

Thanks again for the alertness.

Posted by: ace on November 5, 2004 05:43 PM

No problem Ace. Keep up the good work. I really enjoy your take on things. Your blog has rocketed up my must read list. And for gosh sakes get some sleep.

Posted by: rorochub on November 5, 2004 05:48 PM
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