Yes, Ace. It would.

If the best Kerry can do in a 59-41 Woman split is be +1 in florida and +4 in ohio, he is, in reality, likely behind.

I would rather be in GWB shoes right now than in JFnK's.

They are raw numbers and there is a rumor that those numbers all started at Wonkette and are not all real.

They are not weighted at all from what I understand. I am not sure why they are releasing anything. Frankly I think it is a great ploy to suppress the vote on both sides.

As the invaluable Jay Cost warns:

The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo. I know you are all desperate for information, but this is not what you are looking for.

Personal anecdote: The early exit polling in 2000 did not favor Bush at all. I remember coming home from class in 2000 and discovering that Bush was "toast" in the big states...and that he was putting together a "small state strategy" for victory. Well...we all know how that one worked out.

Drudge changed his headline within the last 10 minutes to talk about the over sampling of women.

The reason the numbers are not balanced or weighted (if they are even legitimate) is that they come from people standing outside a polling place and asking voters. They just go off the raw numbers. You know somebody in the media gladly leaked these in order to dampen Bush supporters spirits.

As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes.

Wherever these come from, it's pretty obvious they're not reliable. These "exit polls" show Kerry with a slight lead in FL and OH, which is plausible, but give him a 20 point margin in PA and an 18 point edge in NH and MN. Whatever the real numbers are, these ain't them.

If you're freaking out about these polls, you need to chill. They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up.

I know this is hardly scientific, but the running poll at my mom's board has Bush up 75-56 (and these are among all women).

They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up.

Heh.

Ai-Carumba. I do need to chill. I've tried telling myself that a Kerry victory wouldn't be the same as a Doctor telling me I had terminal cancer, but when I saw that Drudge report I felt a twinge. Ug. He shouldn't do that to people. It's just not nice.

Keep checking the Corner. Jonah is now saying the PA numbers came from the Kerry campaign themselves!

And surprise, someone in the media leaked them as actually numbers. Then you have Wonkette putting up bogus numbers that aren't even exit polls, but early voting tallys, if that.

We will win just as surely as Oliver will eat!

They claimed it for Gore at 7:50 last time. Kerry, oddly enough, was busy fucking over MA.