| Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
Gardening, Home and Nature Thread, June 13
Getting close to that big anniversary: What and whom do you appreciate? The Classical Saturday Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 13 June 2026 Here Comes Johnny With His ONT In His Hand Fri-Yay Cafe The Weak Are Woke More: Graham Platner, Known to Have a Dick the Size of a Grain of Rice, Has Lied About Why He Has a Nazi Totenkopf on His Flabby Droopy Moob According To What Story He Thinks His Mark Wants to Hear Despite the Lies of the Biden Administration and Its Egregiously Dishonest Spokeswoman Jen Psaki, the US Did In Fact Use Taxpayer Money to Fund Bioweapon Labs Across the Globe, Including in Ukraine The Little Scottish Girl Smeared by the Left as a Racist Thug for Defending Her Sister Completely Vindicated as Bulgarian Brother and Sister Team Convicted of Assaulting and Making Sexual Remarks to a 12-Year-Old Child Absent Friends
Captain Whitebread 2026
Jon Ekdahl 2026 Jay Guevara 2025 Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025 Jewells45 2025 Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
Texas MoMe 2026: 10/16/2026-10/17/2026 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info |
« Excitable Andy Cautions NRO to "Chill" |
Main
| Early Exit Polls in 2000 had many omissions and contained much that was apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate »
November 02, 2004
Big Bias Towards Women in Early Voting/Exit Polling?"the sampling on the midday numbers was 59/41 women to men. you are dealing with a known gender gap of like 9 pts. just fyi." So says Temple of Jennifer, and she's never lied to me before. But wouldn't they attempt to adjust for such a split? If those are the raw numbers, and Kerry's only slightly ahead, wouldn't that be very bad news for Kerry and very good news for Bush? More: Not Weighted Yet: Jay Cost/The Horserace Blog says these early numbers are not weighted, adjusted, nor "scrubbed", and he too has never lied to me before. Thanks to, um, "someone." Okay, Okay, I'll Stop Being Such a Defeatist Ninny: Blue Devils tells me to chill, too: "As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes." He notes that Drudge has now changed his headline, and suggests that the MSM-DNC continuum deliberately let out these misleading numbers to depress Republican voting. Sounds plausible to me. Hey-- seems to me they called Florida for Kerry at 7:50 last time around, too. And Hugh Hewitt Too: A post with a big, friendly "Don't Panic" on the cover. Hugh Hewitt, too, has never lied to me. On the other hand, he's never invited me on his radio show, either. So, I'm torn. posted by Ace at 03:22 PM
CommentsYes, Ace. It would. If the best Kerry can do in a 59-41 Woman split is be +1 in florida and +4 in ohio, he is, in reality, likely behind. I would rather be in GWB shoes right now than in JFnK's. Posted by: Senator PhilABuster on November 2, 2004 03:24 PM
They are raw numbers and there is a rumor that those numbers all started at Wonkette and are not all real. They are not weighted at all from what I understand. I am not sure why they are releasing anything. Frankly I think it is a great ploy to suppress the vote on both sides. Posted by: Jennifer on November 2, 2004 03:25 PM
As the invaluable Jay Cost warns: The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo. I know you are all desperate for information, but this is not what you are looking for.And don't forget... Personal anecdote: The early exit polling in 2000 did not favor Bush at all. I remember coming home from class in 2000 and discovering that Bush was "toast" in the big states...and that he was putting together a "small state strategy" for victory. Well...we all know how that one worked out. Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 03:30 PM
Drudge changed his headline within the last 10 minutes to talk about the over sampling of women. The reason the numbers are not balanced or weighted (if they are even legitimate) is that they come from people standing outside a polling place and asking voters. They just go off the raw numbers. You know somebody in the media gladly leaked these in order to dampen Bush supporters spirits. As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes. Posted by: BlueDevils on November 2, 2004 03:32 PM
Wherever these come from, it's pretty obvious they're not reliable. These "exit polls" show Kerry with a slight lead in FL and OH, which is plausible, but give him a 20 point margin in PA and an 18 point edge in NH and MN. Whatever the real numbers are, these ain't them. If you're freaking out about these polls, you need to chill. They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up. Posted by: SteelyDan on November 2, 2004 03:33 PM
I know this is hardly scientific, but the running poll at my mom's board has Bush up 75-56 (and these are among all women). Posted by: Scout on November 2, 2004 03:37 PM
They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up. Heh. Posted by: Scout on November 2, 2004 03:38 PM
Ai-Carumba. I do need to chill. I've tried telling myself that a Kerry victory wouldn't be the same as a Doctor telling me I had terminal cancer, but when I saw that Drudge report I felt a twinge. Ug. He shouldn't do that to people. It's just not nice. Posted by: Brock on November 2, 2004 03:53 PM
Keep checking the Corner. Jonah is now saying the PA numbers came from the Kerry campaign themselves! And surprise, someone in the media leaked them as actually numbers. Then you have Wonkette putting up bogus numbers that aren't even exit polls, but early voting tallys, if that. We will win just as surely as Oliver will eat! Posted by: BlueDevils on November 2, 2004 04:02 PM
They claimed it for Gore at 7:50 last time. Kerry, oddly enough, was busy fucking over MA. Posted by: blueeyes on November 2, 2004 04:10 PM
Post a comment
| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
Days before the woman was stabbed in the neck by a taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer, in the same general area, another taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer attacked a boy and bloodied his head with a brick.
What is the UK Regime's plan for protecting the citizens from the savage criminals they've foisted on the populace? They offer NONE. They do, however, have a plan for protecting the savage criminals from the citizens: The citizens must STAY CALM and not get angry and not share videos of citizens being attacked by savage criminals. The public keeps saying "protect us from the foreign savages you have imported against our wishes and over our objections" and the UK branch of The Regime keeps proposing plans to protect the foreign savages from the public. Soclose to what the public is demanding, just, you know, the complete opposite. Just a thought: Maybe you wouldn't have to worry about the public attacking the savage criminals if you actually introduced a plan to protect the public from the savage criminals. Maybe they wouldn't feel as if it was necessary for them to protect the public through self-help.
Courtney Subramiam, one of the "journalists" who "previewed" her questions for the decrepit and demented Biden so that he could "answer" it with a pre-scripted response, rewarded by promotion to president of the White House Press Corps
Bonchie You know what's really terrible? There are Daily Signal reporters in the press room. That's the Real Scandal Here!
English racist garbage-person who's on the wrong side of history warns the corrupt Regime that the people cannot take much more of this -- and won't take much more of this
The English have rebelled before.
You might think that movie critics by nature are effeminate and bitchy, but, did you know that grass is green and red peppers are red?
Odd 90s-Retro Susan Collins ad against the Nazi Hotchkiss "hobby farmer"
I like the throwback AOL style of the ad.
Seattle mayor shrugs off millionaire-tax concerns as 44% of business leaders consider leaving
It happens in all the blue states, but WA and Seattle will be different! [CBD] Mary Margaret Olohan
Oof. Reviewers do not like Scary Movie 6. The criticism I keep hearing is that the movie mistakes a reference for an actual joke. The movie (they say) keeps Key Jangling a reference to another movie (or some other pop culture ephemera) and you expect there to be a joke but nope, the Key Jangle was the joke. Other reviewers say that the promise that "no lines will be uncrossed" is a fake-out, and that the movie is bland and inoffensively corporate.
Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.
One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews. Henry Rosoff Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING! I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!
Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:
Sahil Kapur I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into." Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign. And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life: ![]() Recent Comments
Commissar of plenty and festive little hats :
"Yellow jackets? Put a dab of jam on a small child. ..."
RedMindBlueState[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "Condolences from both of us for the loss of your m ..." Stateless - He ain't heavy, he's my dog: "Thanks for letting us know Piper. I was wondering ..." ...: "I remember Tyson claiming that science was about c ..." whig: "143 In Maine the Communists and Nazis are back tog ..." Emmie, celebrating 250 years of God's grace : "I remember Tyson claiming that science was about c ..." whig: "137 Clarence Thomas - one of my all time favorite ..." AZ deplorable moron: "Thanks KT. Lovely crops. ..." Skip: "Is it too late to maybe put in cucumbers or someth ..." Skip: "GARDEN THREAD IS BLOOMING NOOD ..." ...: "Praying for Doof and his. I'm so sorry. ..." Skip: "Good afternoon Greenthumbs ..." Bloggers in Arms
RI Red's Blog! Behind The Black CutJibNewsletter The Pipeline Second City Cop Talk Of The Town with Steve Noxon Belmont Club Chicago Boyz Cold Fury Da Goddess Daily Pundit Dawn Eden Day by Day (Cartoon) EduWonk Enter Stage Right The Epoch Times Grim's Hall Victor Davis Hanson Hugh Hewitt IMAO Instapundit JihadWatch Kausfiles Lileks/The Bleat Memeorandum (Metablog) Outside the Beltway Patterico's Pontifications The People's Cube Powerline RedState Reliapundit Viking Pundit WizBang Some Humorous Asides
Kaboom!
Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
|