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Big Bias Towards Women in Early Voting/Exit Polling?

"the sampling on the midday numbers was 59/41 women to men. you are dealing with a known gender gap of like 9 pts. just fyi."

So says Temple of Jennifer, and she's never lied to me before.

But wouldn't they attempt to adjust for such a split? If those are the raw numbers, and Kerry's only slightly ahead, wouldn't that be very bad news for Kerry and very good news for Bush?

More: Not Weighted Yet: Jay Cost/The Horserace Blog says these early numbers are not weighted, adjusted, nor "scrubbed", and he too has never lied to me before.

Thanks to, um, "someone."

Okay, Okay, I'll Stop Being Such a Defeatist Ninny: Blue Devils tells me to chill, too: "As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes."

He notes that Drudge has now changed his headline, and suggests that the MSM-DNC continuum deliberately let out these misleading numbers to depress Republican voting.

Sounds plausible to me.

Hey-- seems to me they called Florida for Kerry at 7:50 last time around, too.

And Hugh Hewitt Too: A post with a big, friendly "Don't Panic" on the cover. Hugh Hewitt, too, has never lied to me.

On the other hand, he's never invited me on his radio show, either. So, I'm torn.

posted by Ace at 03:22 PM

Comments

Yes, Ace. It would.

If the best Kerry can do in a 59-41 Woman split is be +1 in florida and +4 in ohio, he is, in reality, likely behind.

I would rather be in GWB shoes right now than in JFnK's.

Posted by: Senator PhilABuster on November 2, 2004 03:24 PM

They are raw numbers and there is a rumor that those numbers all started at Wonkette and are not all real.

They are not weighted at all from what I understand. I am not sure why they are releasing anything. Frankly I think it is a great ploy to suppress the vote on both sides.

Posted by: Jennifer on November 2, 2004 03:25 PM

As the invaluable Jay Cost warns:

The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo. I know you are all desperate for information, but this is not what you are looking for.

And don't forget...

Personal anecdote: The early exit polling in 2000 did not favor Bush at all. I remember coming home from class in 2000 and discovering that Bush was "toast" in the big states...and that he was putting together a "small state strategy" for victory. Well...we all know how that one worked out.

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 03:30 PM

Drudge changed his headline within the last 10 minutes to talk about the over sampling of women.

The reason the numbers are not balanced or weighted (if they are even legitimate) is that they come from people standing outside a polling place and asking voters. They just go off the raw numbers. You know somebody in the media gladly leaked these in order to dampen Bush supporters spirits.

As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes.

Posted by: BlueDevils on November 2, 2004 03:32 PM

Wherever these come from, it's pretty obvious they're not reliable. These "exit polls" show Kerry with a slight lead in FL and OH, which is plausible, but give him a 20 point margin in PA and an 18 point edge in NH and MN. Whatever the real numbers are, these ain't them.

If you're freaking out about these polls, you need to chill. They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up.

Posted by: SteelyDan on November 2, 2004 03:33 PM

I know this is hardly scientific, but the running poll at my mom's board has Bush up 75-56 (and these are among all women).

Posted by: Scout on November 2, 2004 03:37 PM

They're about as reliable as Oliver Willis claiming that he once did a sit-up.

Heh.

Posted by: Scout on November 2, 2004 03:38 PM

Ai-Carumba. I do need to chill. I've tried telling myself that a Kerry victory wouldn't be the same as a Doctor telling me I had terminal cancer, but when I saw that Drudge report I felt a twinge. Ug. He shouldn't do that to people. It's just not nice.

Posted by: Brock on November 2, 2004 03:53 PM

Keep checking the Corner. Jonah is now saying the PA numbers came from the Kerry campaign themselves!

And surprise, someone in the media leaked them as actually numbers. Then you have Wonkette putting up bogus numbers that aren't even exit polls, but early voting tallys, if that.

We will win just as surely as Oliver will eat!

Posted by: BlueDevils on November 2, 2004 04:02 PM

They claimed it for Gore at 7:50 last time. Kerry, oddly enough, was busy fucking over MA.

Posted by: blueeyes on November 2, 2004 04:10 PM

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Top Headlines

Oh no! Hamas' de facto press agent at the UN complains that she can't use her credit cards or rent a card now that she's been sanctioned as a terrorist operative
Why does this keep happening to members of the "political organization" (per Tucker Carlson) of Hamas?!?!

Tucker Carlson claims that it's weird that Ted Cruz is interested in the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, because he has "no track record of being interested in Christians," then blows off the massacre of Christians by Nigerian Muslims, saying it might or might not be a real concern
Tucker Carlson enjoys using the left-wing tactic of "Tactical Ignorance" to avoid taking positions on topics. Is Hamas really a terrorist organization? Tucker can't say. He hasn't looked into it enough, but "it seems like a political organization to me." Are Muslims slaughtering Christians in Nigeria? Again, Tucker just doesn't know. He hasn't examined the evidence yet. He knows every Palestinian Christian who said he was blocked from visiting holy sites in Bethlehem, but he just hasn't had the time to look into the mass slaughter of Christians in Nigeria that has been going on since (checks watch) 2009. He doesn't know, so he can't offer an opinion. Wouldn't be prudent, you know? Don't rush him! He'll sift through the evidence at some point in the future and render an opinion sometime around 2044.
Of course, if you need an opinion on Jewish Perfidy, he has all the facts at his fingertips and can give you a fully informed opinion pronto. Say, have you ever heard of the USS Liberty incident...?
You'd think that the main issue for Tucker Carlson, who pretends to be so deeply concerned about Palestinian Christians being bullied by Jews in Israel (supposedly), would be the massacre of 185,000 Christians in Nigeria itself. But no, his main problem is that Ted Cruz is talking about it, "who has no track record of being interested in Christians at all." And then he just shrugs as to whether this is even a real issue or not.
Whatever we do we must never "divide the right," huh?
Tucker is attacking Ted Cruz for bringing the issue up because he's acting as an apologist for Jihadism, and he can't cleanly admit that Jihadists are killing any Christians, anywhere. There is no daylight between him and CAIR at this point.
One might conclude that Tucker Carlson himself isn't interested in the plight of Christians -- except as they can be used as a cudgel to attack Jews.
Just gonna ask an Interesting Question myself -- why is it that Tucker Carlson's arguments all track with those shit out by Qatarian propaganda agents and the far left? That if Jews crush an ant underfoot it is worldwide news, but when Muslims slaughter Christians it elicits not even a vigorous shrug?

Sydney Sweeney has passed from celebrity to Meme Legend

Garth Merenghi is interviewed by the only man who can fathom his ineffable brilliance -- Garth Merenghi
From the comments:

I once glimpsed Garth in the penumbra betwixt my wake and sleep. He was in my dream, standing afar, not looking my way, nor did he acknowledge me. But I felt seen. And that's when I knew I was a traveler on the right path. I'm glad he's still with us.

Now that's some Merenghian prose.
Garth Merenghi on the writer's craft

Greetings, Traveler. If you still have not experienced Garth Merenghi -- Author, Dream-weaver, Visionary, plus Actor -- the six episodes of his Darkplace are still available on YouTube and supposedly upscaled to HD. (Viewing it now, it doesn't appeared upscaled for shit.)
I think the second episode, "Hell Hath Fury," is the best by a good margin. Try to at least watch through to that one. It's Mereghi's incisive but nuanced take on sexism.

TJM Returns with a discussion of Auteur Theory.

Podcast: The elections! NYC, Virginia, New Jersey, Texas, California, and the future prospects of the Republican party...

Update on Scott Adams:

Scott Adams had approval for this cancer drug but they hadn't scheduled him to get it. He was taking a turn for the worse. Trump had told him to call if he needed anything, so he did. Talked to Don Jr (who is in Africa) , then RFK Jr, then Dr Oz. Someone talked to Kaiser and he was scheduled. Shouldn't have needed it but he did and he says it saved his life.
Posted by: Notsothoreau

"Trump" goes trick-or-treating

Funny retro kid costumes, thanks to SMH
Good to see people honoring Lamont the Big Dummy

Four hours of retro Halloween commercials and specials
The first short is the original 1996 appearance of "Sam," the dangerous undead trick-or-treater from Trick r' Treat.

ICYMI: Australian journalist actually presses Kamala Harris when she repeatedly dodges questions about Biden's mental fitness
Kamala admits she didn't have the stamina to run for president, while continuing to insist he had the mental capacity to serve as president. He was too frail to run but perfectly strong enough to govern. Yeah sure whatever lying whore.

On Wednesday, we'll see the "Beaver Super-Moon." Which sounds hot.

Podcast: Historian and Pundit Robert Spencer joins us for a wide-ranging discussion about the Islamists in our midst: Mamdani in NYC, all across Europe, and others.

Full Episode: The Hardy Boys (and Nancy Drew) Meet Dracula
I don't remember this show, except for remembering that Nancy Drew was hot and the opening credits were foreboding and exicting

According to Grok, Latrine John-Pissoir has never failed to mention she is "black" (or "queer") during her book interviews
She may not know what the hell her book is about, but she definitely knows that "every day I wake up black and queer." Join the club, sister!

Schmoll: 53% of New Jersey likely voters say their neighbors are voting for Ciattarelli, while 47% say the cheater/grifter Mikie Sherrill
The "who do you think your neighbors are voting for" question is designed to avoid the Shy Tory problem, wherein conservative people lie to schmollsters because they don't want to go on record with a likely left-winger telling them who they're really voting for. So instead the question is who do you think your neighbors are voting for, so people can talk about who they themselves support without actually having to admit it to a left-wing rando stranger recording their answers on the phone.

Hackers take over University of Penn website, calling the school a "dogshit elitist institution full of woke retards" and threatening to release its admissions files to prove illegal racial discrimination
No lies detected so far

Live Now: Dana Loesch is interrogating Heritage President Kevin Roberts on his insistence that the gay Nazi Nick Fuentes is an absolutely essential "conservative" voice whose ideas we must take seriously and who we must absolutely not exclude based on his Naziism

TJM Complains about Wreck-It Ralph The very topical premiere of TJM's YouTube Channel.

Interesting football history: How the forward pass was created in response to the nineteen -- 19! -- people killed playing football in 1905 alone
The original rules of football did not allow forward passes. The ball was primarily advanced by running, with blockers forming lines with interlocked arms and just smashing into the similarly-interlocked defensive lines. It was basically Greek hoplite spear formations but with a semi-spherical ball. As calls to ban the sport entirely grew, some looked for ways to de-emphasize mass charges as the primary means of advancing the ball, and some specifically championed allowing a passer to throw the ball forward.