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« New Voters Won't Necessarily Help Kerry |
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| Anatomy of a Rollback »
October 29, 2004
New Poll: Bush Up in Pennsylvania and MichiganHere's the bad news: he's also behind in Ohio. Let's be cautiously optimistic about this -- and let's vote, damnit -- but it's probably safe to say at this point of the the election what they say about Hollywood: No one knows anything about anything. What we have on our hands is a flip of a coin, and unless you're just a degenerate gambler, you can't be happy about that. October 29, 2004 -- Two new polls yesterday claimed President Bush has 2-point leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan must-win states for Democratic rival John Kerry. Moderate Kim Richards. Maybe one of her more heavily-clothed scenes in Tuff Turf:
Update: This guy says Bush is ready to take a commanding lead in Ohio. Okay, but, he's only got 'till Tuesday you know. posted by Ace at 02:24 AM
CommentsI wouldn't worry too much about Ohio. Yeah, maybe a good GOTV by our side wins it, but very possibly not. I've been watching the strategy for the last month and there canbe little doubt that Rove fashioned and pursued a plan to win without Ohio. I just did a post on this, though not directly. Bush will likely win Fla. to get to 259 EV's. He only needs 10 more for a tie he'll win in the House. They have spent far more time in MN, WI, PA and IA than Ohio. Ohio was always going to be the harder fight because of the state economy and a republican gov. who raised taxes there. Think about how few times you have been hearing "Bush in Ohio" - nothing compared to the other states. If Bush wins close, it'll be with 276 - 286 EV's from his current base plus FL, IA, MN, and or WI forget NH and OH. His last big days, one with Arnold, will help him regionally (MN, IA, WI, OH some) and more imortantly, Western PA, he was in Eastern PA today BTW. The "Big Win" gamble would call for him rolling up NJ and maybe PA. The media has been talking about the IA, MN, WI strategy as a fall back. Look at Bush's travels since the convention - it isn't a fall back - it's the main plan. And it's working. Posted by: Dan on October 29, 2004 03:07 AM
I also think the people who are appearing with Bush are going to help him more than those who are showing up on stage with Kerry. NH doesn't have a huge number of electoral votes, but Curt Schilling will be appearing with Bush there, and that's Red Sox Nation territory. With the end of the curse, that could be a huge boost in a swing state, and it could have an effect on parts of Maine as well. My Governator is also going to be appearing with him in Ohio, and Arnold's a popular figure, seen as something of a maverick--that could also pick up votes for W--maybe in western Pennsylvania as well. Meanwhile, Kerry's stumping in Madison, Wisconsin with Springsteen. Uh-huh. First of all, Madison is like the Berkeley of the midwest, so draw your own conclusions as to why he feels the need to get out his base there. Secondly, Sprignsteen? I know the media and liberals (redundant, I know) are falling all over themselves to polish his knob and talk about how important he is to the campaign, but what year is this? 1984? Seriously, when was the last time Bruce had a hit song? I don't even remember the last time I saw one of his videos on VH-friggin-1. I guess he can galvanize the support of elderly rock critics and Carl from Aqua Teen Hunger Force, but college kids? Please. But you've gotta worry about the secret weapon, the October surprise. I'm talking about, of course, Bowzer. Posted by: Sean M. on October 29, 2004 04:35 AM
I took advantage of early voting and cast the first presidential ballot of my life for a Republican. It was a weird and vaguely disturbing feeling, actually. But, somehow I don't think I'm going to dolefully regret this vote like the ones I gleefully cast for Carter and Perot back in the days before I learned to actually USE the brain God gave me. (I know, I know: "What was he THINKING?!" I wuz a spaz-tard. ;^/) Posted by: Bloghorn Bleghorn on October 29, 2004 04:48 AM
Ace, sorry about the double trackback, some kind of snafu. Please delete the duplicate. Posted by: Steve on October 29, 2004 09:28 AM
If Bush gets Michigan & Pennsylvania, who needs Ohio? There would be additional fallout from carrying MI & PA. The media will be advertising that before the polls close in the west, encourating those western "battlegrounds" to get on the bandwagon. I'm from Ohio, by the way, and I'm gonna vote for Bush, but like a democrat...several times. Posted by: Just Don on October 29, 2004 10:45 AM
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In more marketing for Project Hail Mary, scientists say they've found the biosigns indicating life growing on an alien planet. It's not proof, just signatures of chemicals that are produced by biological metabolism, and it could be nothing, but scientists think it's a strong sign that this planet is inhabited by something.
In a paper published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, a team of scientists announced the detection of dimethyl sulfide (along with a similar detection of dimethyl disulfide) in the atmosphere of an exoplanet called K2-18b. This is actually the second detection of dimethyl sulfide made on this planet, following a tentative detection in 2023. He means they tried to prove the signal was caused by things other than dimethyl sulfide but they could not.
Artemis moon shot a go, scheduled for 6:24 Eastern time tonight
Great marketing arranged by Amazon to promote Project Hail Mary. Okay not really but it does work out that way.
What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter One day I'm gonna get that faculty together Remember that everybody has to wait in line Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine
US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.
Robert Mueller, Former Special Counsel Who Probed Trump, Dies
“robert mueller just died,” trump wrote in a truth social post on march 21. “good, i’m glad he’s dead. he can no longer hurt innocent people! president donald j. trump.” Recent Comments
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