I wouldn't worry too much about Ohio. Yeah, maybe a good GOTV by our side wins it, but very possibly not. I've been watching the strategy for the last month and there canbe little doubt that Rove fashioned and pursued a plan to win without Ohio. I just did a post on this, though not directly.

Bush will likely win Fla. to get to 259 EV's. He only needs 10 more for a tie he'll win in the House. They have spent far more time in MN, WI, PA and IA than Ohio. Ohio was always going to be the harder fight because of the state economy and a republican gov. who raised taxes there. Think about how few times you have been hearing "Bush in Ohio" - nothing compared to the other states.

If Bush wins close, it'll be with 276 - 286 EV's from his current base plus FL, IA, MN, and or WI forget NH and OH. His last big days, one with Arnold, will help him regionally (MN, IA, WI, OH some) and more imortantly, Western PA, he was in Eastern PA today BTW. The "Big Win" gamble would call for him rolling up NJ and maybe PA.

The media has been talking about the IA, MN, WI strategy as a fall back. Look at Bush's travels since the convention - it isn't a fall back - it's the main plan. And it's working.

I also think the people who are appearing with Bush are going to help him more than those who are showing up on stage with Kerry. NH doesn't have a huge number of electoral votes, but Curt Schilling will be appearing with Bush there, and that's Red Sox Nation territory. With the end of the curse, that could be a huge boost in a swing state, and it could have an effect on parts of Maine as well. My Governator is also going to be appearing with him in Ohio, and Arnold's a popular figure, seen as something of a maverick--that could also pick up votes for W--maybe in western Pennsylvania as well.

Meanwhile, Kerry's stumping in Madison, Wisconsin with Springsteen. Uh-huh. First of all, Madison is like the Berkeley of the midwest, so draw your own conclusions as to why he feels the need to get out his base there. Secondly, Sprignsteen? I know the media and liberals (redundant, I know) are falling all over themselves to polish his knob and talk about how important he is to the campaign, but what year is this? 1984? Seriously, when was the last time Bruce had a hit song? I don't even remember the last time I saw one of his videos on VH-friggin-1. I guess he can galvanize the support of elderly rock critics and Carl from Aqua Teen Hunger Force, but college kids? Please.

But you've gotta worry about the secret weapon, the October surprise. I'm talking about, of course, Bowzer.

I took advantage of early voting and cast the first presidential ballot of my life for a Republican. It was a weird and vaguely disturbing feeling, actually. But, somehow I don't think I'm going to dolefully regret this vote like the ones I gleefully cast for Carter and Perot back in the days before I learned to actually USE the brain God gave me. (I know, I know: "What was he THINKING?!" I wuz a spaz-tard. ;^/)

Ace, sorry about the double trackback, some kind of snafu. Please delete the duplicate.

If Bush gets Michigan & Pennsylvania, who needs Ohio?

There would be additional fallout from carrying MI & PA. The media will be advertising that before the polls close in the west, encourating those western "battlegrounds" to get on the bandwagon.

I'm from Ohio, by the way, and I'm gonna vote for Bush, but like a democrat...several times.