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October 09, 2004
Rasmussen: Bush at 50% SupportFirst time all year either candidate has hit the magic majority. Bush 50 (well, 49.6) Kerry 46 (actually 45.9). Meanwhile, Zogby, who's tended to be one of the worst pollsters for Bush (and best for Kerry), shows Kerry emerging with a very-much-inside-the-MoE one point lead, 46-45. I think Bush was badly damaged by that first debate. However, I think the damage was not as catastrophic as it might have been, and furthermore his second debate performance was much, much stronger. Many fewer people watched this second debate, but they'll hear from the pundicracy that it was either a draw or slight Bush win. Bush didn't deliver a knockout, but he did manage a smooth and reassuring appearance, much-needed after his weak first performance. Long story short: If that first debate wasn't enough to put Kerry ahead outside the MoE, I don't know what else could do at this point. Well, except for the obvious-- a major terrorist attack of the sort that could plausibly be blamed on American negligence for failing to prevent. Update: Ipsos/AP has it all knotted up at 47% apeice. Not as bad as it seems. Kerry on his best week manages a tie. Bush on his best week manages a 6-8 point lead. Kerry could win-- no doubt about that. But he'll have to have a great week at the end of October, whereas Bush only needs a fair week to take home the prize. posted by Ace at 03:01 PM
CommentsAce This is an old poll. All of AP's political stories for three days have lead with this poll. For the three days they trumpeted the likely voters going for Kerry over Bush 50-46. Now the emphasis on this article is that among registered voters Bush and Kerry are tied at 47-47. This is a poll for all seasons because within this poll among the most likely to vote Bush is ahead of Kerry. So the AP can get 9 days of stories from this same poll. 1st Kerry was ahead, then tied, and in a few days Bush will be ahead. All from the same poll. now this wasn't a trick posting was it? Like the old question about how many days Moses was in the ark? (None Moses was not in the ark) Posted by: Ralph on October 9, 2004 04:04 PM
Still....the polls are worrying. It's all these damn debate things. I don't like these debate things AT ALL. Everybody's always telling me how to act at them. They even took away my Ny-Quil about a week before the first one. That made me all shaky, and I started to see giant spiders in my room. And they didn't have spider heads neither. Instead, they all had Uncle Dick's head on their bodies, and they were saying they were going to interrogate me by putting glow sticks in my butt. Mr. Rove said I couldn't debate if I kept seeing the spiders, so they gave me my Ny-Quil back. I stopped shaking and seeing spiders after that. They brought me a a little juice glass full of Ny-Quil before the first debate and said that it was all I could drink. Then they stuck a thing in my ear that made it so Mr. Rove could talk to me in my head. That made Jesus mad, because He likes to have my head to himself. He told me to ignore Mr. Rove, but I said that would get me in trouble. Then, Jesus told me to go and have a few hits off of my Ny-Quil bong, and I wouldn't care anymore. He was right. I couldn't understand all the big words Mr. Kerry was saying in the first debate. Mr. Rove kept trying to help me, but Jesus started to sing "Jesus wants me to be a Sunbeam" really loud, and I couldn't understand what Mr. Rove was saying. That made me kind of mad, and I guess it showed. Everybody yelled at me afterward, and said that I was drunk. They let me use my nose medicine for the next debate, and they promised not to arrest me this time for using it. Mr. Limbaugh said that combined with the Ny-Quil, it would keep me on an even keel. He knows a lot about medicine--he's like a doctor or something. There was a problem though. Uncle Dick found my Ny-Quil bong after the first debate and confiscated it. All I got was a little glass, the balance between Ny-Quil and nose medicine this time was way off. That said, this time was stil a little better, because Jesus was mad at me for touching Barney the way Sen. Santorum taught me and didn't talk to me except for that time he told me to kill Charley Gibson. Mr Rove stopped me just in time. I got really angry a lot during that debate. Once, Mr. Kerry tried to embarrass me my saying that I had wood. That was a lie. I haven't had wood in years--Laura says it's because of all the Ny-Quil and nose medicine. There's one more debate coming up. I don't want to do it. Maybe, they'll let my man-secretary, Mr. Rumsfeld, do it for me. I sure hope so. Posted by: George W, on October 11, 2004 03:37 AM
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Lurker extraordinaire announces impending surgery: Victor Davis Hanson: 'Not Yet and Not Today'
Best wishes for a speedy recovery! [CBD]
Trump Says 'We Have the Makings' of a Peace Deal in Ukraine It sounds nice, but please take Winston Wolf's advice. [CBD]
Brigitte Bardot, Star of 'And God Created Women' and 'Contempt,' Dies at 91
If you have forgotten what she looked like, try this. [CBD]
This isn't Christmas Eve fare, and I thought about waiting until the 26th to post it, but supposedly an amateur detective has solved the Zodiac killer mystery. And the horrific Black Dahlia killing. He says it's the same person! I always thought of them as very far apart in time but I think Black Dahlia was mid-fifties (nope, 1947) mid and the Zodiac murders began in 1968 so it's possible it's the same killer.
The killer, if it's the same man, would have been in his 20s when he killed the Black Dahlia and his 40s when he did the Zodiac murders. Possible. A little caveat: I saw someone snark on Reddit, "The Zodiac case gets solved more often than Wordle." There are a ton of coincidences here, supposedly, like a Zodiac cipher being solved by the name "Elizabeth." Elizabeth Short was the name of the so-called Black Dahlia. If you don't know about the Black Dahlia, don't look it up. Just accept that it's grisly on the level of Jack the Ripper. Yes, the named suspect resembles the police sketch of Zodiac. Here's a podcast with the amateur sleuth who claims he cracked the Zodiac. Daily Mail article. Link to get around the LA Times' paywall for their article.
Former Republican liberal Ben Sasse announces that he has stage IV metastasized pancreatic cancer: "I'm gonna die"
It's not just a "death sentence," as he says, but a rapidly coming one. I hope he can put his affairs in order and make sure his family is in a good as a position as they can be.
Brown killer takes the coward's way out. Naturally.
Still not identified, for some reason. Per Fox 25 Boston, the killer was a non-citizen permanent legal resident It continues to be strange that the police are so protective of his identity.
Fearful French cancel NYE concert on Champs-Élysées as migrant violence grows
The time is now! France must fight for its culture! [CBD]
Megyn Kelly finally calls out Candace Owens
Whoops, I meant she bravely attacks Sydney Sweeney for "bending the knee." (Sweeney put out a very empty PR statement saying "I'm against hate." Whoop-de-doo.) Megyn Kelly claims she doesn't want to call people out on the right when asked about Candace Owens but then has no compunctions at all about calling people out on the right. As long as they're not Candace Owens. Strangely, she seems blind and deaf to anything Candace Owens says. That's why this woman calls her "Megyn Keller." She's now asking her pay-pigs in Pakistan how they think she should address the Candace Owens situation, and if they think this is really all about Israel and the Jews.
The World Must Stop Ignoring What Iranians Already Know: The Regime Is on the Brink
Isn't it pretty to think so? [CBD]
I have happily forgotten what Milo Yiannopoulos sounds like, but I still enjoyed this impression from from Ami Kozak.
More revelations about the least-sexy broken relationship in media history
I'd wanted to review Parts 2, 3, and 4 of Ryan Lizza's revenge posts about Olivia Nuzzi, but they're all paywalled. I thought about briefly subscribing to get at them, but then I read this in Part 2: Remember the bamboo from Part 1? Do I ever! It's all I remember! Well, bamboo is actually a type of grass, and underground, it's all connected in a sprawling network, just like the parts of this story I never wanted to tell. I wish I hadn't been put in this position, that I didn't have to write about any of this, that I didn't have to subject myself or my loved ones to embarrassment and further loss of privacy. We're back to the fucking bamboo. Guys, I don't think I can pay for bamboo ruminations. I think he added that because he was embarrassed about all the bamboo imagery from Part 1. He's justifying his twin obsessions: His ex, and bamboo. Which is not a tree but a kind of grass, he'll have you know. Recent Comments
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