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« The Ol' Double-Whammy | Main | If This is True... »
September 09, 2004

The Forgeries (?): Conspiring Coincidences or Enemy Action?

Goldfinger told Bond, "Mr. Bond, we have a saying in Chicago. The first time is happenstance. The second time is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

Goldfinger's "Rule of Three Strange Events Makes Enemy Action" has never been scientifically proven, of course. But it seems like a good rule of thumb to me.

The documents in question have three odd features.

They're variable-spaced, something that was available on some hard-to-work with typewriters, but is of course common in word processors/inkjet printers.

They have "smart quotes" -- quotes that angle the right way, rather than the straight up-and-down dumb-quotes found on typewriters. Again, this is something word processors do (using a simple program for trying to figure out which way the quote should slant), but typewriters do not.

Yes, a special typewriter could be built featuring both forwards and backwards-leaning quotes, and yes, a typist could train himself when to use one or the other.

This is possible.

It is, however, unlikely.

The document also features small superscripted "th's" after numbers, like 187th. That is something that word processors do automatically when they see a "th" or "st" or "rd" or "nd" following a number. But typewriters don't do this. Again, one could put special font faces on a typewriter's ball -- a superscripted "st," "nd," "rd," and "th" -- and the typist could manually select these characters when called for.

But who the hell has ever done this? My guess -- no one, ever, except perhaps for typist-tinkerers and engineers working for IBM and Brother.

Now, one can say, for each of these objections, some typerwriter out there could have done all this. But it seems astonishingly unlikely that a military man would go to this effort to build himself a typewriter that so closely mimics typeset.

So: Do we have here a military man who had some inordinate lust for creating typeset-perfect pages?

Or do we have something much simpler-- a modern computer word-processing program which automatically does all these cool things?

Which of those is the more likely?

Check out, once again, Little Green Football's demonstration of what the "document" looks like when typed up in MS Word 97. It's astonishingly similar, no?

Where exactly did Dan Rather get these documents from?

Could his source have been, by any chance, a Democratic politician with a shady past -- involved in a bribery and stock fraud scandal in the 70's -- who shares the same initials as Barry Bonds?

The penultimate chapter of Goldfinger, incidentally, is titled "The Last Trick," if the James-Bond-trivia lobe of my brain isn't deceiving me.


posted by Ace at 03:36 PM
Comments



I am fascinated by what this signifies for the further evolution of the blogosphere.

Consider: if such documents had surfaced even as recently as the 2000 campaign, their analysis and refutation would have most likely taken days, possibly longer, depending on when copies of the documents were made available. Talk radio would have been the main mechanism for spreading the information. If the documents had surfaced in 1996, the refutation would have taken weeks or possibly not happened at all. In 1996, it might have been sufficient for the Boston Globe to claim that “an expert” had evaluated the documents and concluded that they were genuine. The source documents might never have seen the light of day.

Contrast that to what has happened today. The pdf files for the alleged Nation Guard memos were linked and circulated via the internet. They were viewed within hours by literally thousands of individuals with direct experience relevant to assessing their validity. This included experts in typesetting, forgeries, the National Guard, or any number of other aspects germane to the controversy. (I’m not one of those experts, but some of the points they raise, like the suprascript “th”, seem pretty convincing). Depending on what the major media do tonight, it is possible that the story will be laid to rest in less than 24 hours. Incredible.

This story, even more than the Swift Vets story, illustrates the evolution in the internet as an informational medium. When so many are linked so easily, the internet really approaches a meta-consciousness. The “blogosphere” collectively is many orders of magnitude smarter than a single individual. When historians view this era, I think they might view the 2004 elections as the Battle of Midway for information dissemination. It will mark not so much the end of the traditional media, but the point at which the tide turned.

Posted by: David on September 9, 2004 03:49 PM

I was just about to post something along those lines.

Posted by: ace on September 9, 2004 03:51 PM

Ten years ago a friend of mine suggested that the next major war would not be a shooting war (wrong) but a war of information. As we've all witnessed over the past few months, the daily errors within the MSM cannot be explained away as honest mistakes. They are obviously intentional distortions of the truth, intentionally created to support "their side". Often I have wondered how I/we can get in the fight. Well, it seems like we are already in it, and we're doing a hell of a good job.

Posted by: BAM on September 9, 2004 03:52 PM

Also check out

INDC

with commentary by an expert.

Posted by: Phil on September 9, 2004 03:56 PM

OK, didn't work to put in a link. Maybe this did.

http://www.indcjournal.com/archives/000838.php

Posted by: Phil on September 9, 2004 03:57 PM

Wow. Thanks so much, Phil.

I am so impressed by Bill From INDC that I'm not even envious of him, nor of the straight-media job he's about to get.

Posted by: ace on September 9, 2004 04:03 PM

The lesson here is that if you are going to do a forgery, don't cut corners. Get period equipment, use period techniques. I mean, you'd think with all the money George Soros is throwing at them, how hard would it be to scrounge up a manual typewriter and actually type this out?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega on September 9, 2004 05:00 PM

Re: Rauol Ortega

Not unless the forgery was done as a joke by RNC, knowing that CBS will eat it up, no questions ask.

But that's just Democrats Underground Group Think speaking.

Posted by: BigFire on September 9, 2004 06:23 PM
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