Jesus Ace, what's next? A mother friggin magic eight ball?

Well, I thought it was interesting.

I have some amount of faith in these sorts of markets to predict the future. It's not as if they're oracles, but if people in this market are betting on Bush, it does, to some extent, represent a proxy for the thinking of the whole country-- a bit like a poll.

And I'm interested that Kerry supporters may be attempting to game the markets, and thereby influence public opinion.

Ace, have you checked out Byron York's article about Krugman over at National Review? I just read it, and I am wondering when the guys in white coats are going to come for the man.

Soon?

Ace: "thereby influence public opinion" - It's an attempt to subvert the influence it would actually have. Go to Chicago Boyz and check out the In-Trade contracts for Bush re-election on the right hand margin. It's up from 51-52 to 58-59.

I don't get it, because the only election markets I know of has Bush up by 9 and 15 points. [via Q and O Blog]

Could just be a pretty standard market operator trick. Prop up the bid so you can manipulate people's minds, convincing them to buy more of your offers. In other words, it could be a Kerry short who's propping up the Kerry market (for now).

The best place to go for betting prices is www.pinnaclesports.com. Prices right now:

Bush -139, Kerry +129
Florida winner: Bush -141, Kerry +131
Thune +156, Daschle -166
Nethercutt +242, Patty Murray -262

It's called "painting the tape." It's an old, old stock market trick to make equity prices different than they really are for a purpose, for example the pricing of a public offering for a company who's stock is already traded.