As a wolverine, I'd be skeptical that Bush could win Michigan considering that we're super unionized. It's going to depend a lot on what happens up in Macomb and Oakland Counties (north Detroit suburbs).

But I suppose anything's possible.

If Bush wins Michigan, it'll be a landslide--350 or more electoral votes, and he'll have to beat a corrupt state machine to do it.

I don't think it's possible.

Um, I'm in a union, and I'm voting for Bush. What's more, I know I'm not veen close to alone.

I think union membership used to be a far better predictor of voting patterns than it is now. It may have some utility as an indicator, but I think it's minimal.

Read this story:

here

[edited by ace]

Kerry is not too popular among union voters.

Zogby also mentions that Kerry and Bush are in a dead heat here in Virginia. I will grant you that Northern Virginia has become horribly leftist over the years. SOmething to do with the proximity to DC and all, I guess. But Bob Dole won this state by 4% when Clinton won nationally by 8%. Unless the Dem's can somehow magically erase all of the military and rural votes in this state, there is no way in hell that Kerry grabs the 13 electoral votes. One caveat: if Kerry wins Virginia, Bush gets clobbered by a huge margin, rivaling the Dukakis ass-whipping.

Nicholas - I think you made the point I was trying to make better than me.

Rocketeer - I hope you're right. I've probably got something of a warped view, seeing as how I spent about 5 years working in the Michigan House of Reps and often had to deal with union members who seemed to only believe what was printed in the last UAW/MEA/(insert random union here) newsletter, and could not be convinced otherwise or reasoned with in any way.

I do know that many union members do not vote in lockstep with the Union leadership, but it's still a formidable force in MI politics, especially in SE Michigan/metro Detroit, which is where the majority of votes are.

A little late on this ... but MI sucks out loud right now. I live in Detroit, and really ... you have a town of un-energized Dem voters. They pull that Democrap ticket because that is what they ALWAYS do - ZOMBIES, they are. I even stood in line behind someone (last presidential election) who was explained by an election official to just vote "straight ticket" ... and you know which ticket that was. I was in Ann Arbor yesterday -and the full force Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers are everywhere (you do NOT see them in Detroit.) By the time I left, I was so full of pent-up irritation, that I ended up yelling at some kids who where carrying a KErry sign down the street. I felt a bit better after that.