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June 17, 2004
Economic News: Good, with a Touch of BadBut other things are going on besides the outing of Shrill Shill. May's readings on inflation were greater than expected: Prices received by farms, factories and refiners shot up a hefty and more-than-expected 0.8 percent last month, the largest jump since March 2003, the Labor Department said. While food and energy prices both rose sharply, the department's core producer price index, which strips out those volatile costs, gained a larger-than-expected 0.3 percent, adding to inflation jitters on Wall Street. They'd expected a .6 rise in CPI, and a .2 rise in the core producer price index. That's not good for Wall Street. On the other hand... Also, a regional manufacturing survey showed strength, though it bore some pockets of softness. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's June business activity index climbed to 28.9 from 23.8 in May, beating forecasts of a rise to 25.0. In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time filings for state jobless aid fell 15,000 to 336,000 in the week ended June 12, their lowest level since early May. ... Also on Thursday, the Conference Board, a private business group, said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5 percent in May to 116.5, suggesting the U.S. economy's momentum is likely to build in the coming months. Note the word "build." Not "continue." Build. As in quicken in pace. Finally: A four-week moving average of claims, which smooths weekly volatility to provide a better picture of underlying trends, slipped 2,750 to 343,250. The average has been hovering since early March near levels not seen since early 2001, before the economy tipped into recession. Actually, the economy tipped into recession in late 2000, but I take their point. The markets are reacting fairly neutrally to the combination of inflation worries and very positive economic news. I'm speaking out of my hat here, but I kinda think the markets want that .25 rate hike in June -- or even a .5 hike -- just to get it over with. Maybe it's the current fear of the rate hike -- which everyone knows is coming -- which is keeping markets moving sideways. posted by Ace at 04:01 PM
CommentsActually the market has already priced in a .25 hike at the June meeting. It has also priced in at least a .25 hike for the August meeting (a high probability of a .5 hike), and another .5 by the end of the year (meetings in September, November, and December). You can tell by looking at the Fed Funds futures, traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. For those who don't know, the price of these is simply 100-[Fed Funds Rate at Expiration]. So, if there is a hike this month, and it's only .25, then the markets should have little reaction. It could even be a positive reaction, as some investors think that the Fed may not hike rates at a 'measured' pace after seeing perceived signs of inflation. If they only go up .25 that might reassure some of the more worried investors out there. Posted by: morpheus on June 17, 2004 05:42 PM
Thanks. It's the second paragraph of yours that I mean. Well, actually, I mean that there may be a psychology out there in which anticipation of the bad future event is actually worse than the occurence of the bad future event. Know what I mean? Posted by: ace on June 17, 2004 05:50 PM
Greenspan is trying to do to Bush what he did to his Papa. Never trusted the Maestro. Too much hubris. Posted by: Katherine on June 18, 2004 12:47 AM
Actually Ace, yes, I know exactly what you mean. I think Steven Seagal put it best in 'Hard to Kill' when he wrote "Anticipation of Death is Worse Than Death Itself" in blood on the wall, right before he broke the arm of the last bad cop and went to take care of the Senator. That was also the movie that led to the marriage of Seagal and Kelly LeBrock. Good times. Posted by: morpheus on June 18, 2004 08:52 AM
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| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter One day I'm gonna get that faculty together Remember that everybody has to wait in line Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine
US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.
Robert Mueller, Former Special Counsel Who Probed Trump, Dies
“robert mueller just died,” trump wrote in a truth social post on march 21. “good, i’m glad he’s dead. he can no longer hurt innocent people! president donald j. trump.”
Canadian School Designates Cafeteria And Lunchroom As "No Food Zones" For Ramadan
Canada and the UK are neck and neck in the race to become the first western country to fall to Islam [CBD] Recent Comments
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