Well, it's kind of a goofy question because look at it this way: 49 percent say they would consider voting for Kerry. *But* only 39 percent say they wouldn't. So what about those other goofy 12 percent?

They would not consider it, nor would they *not* not consider it?

The 39 percent is much more telling and the two are tied. That is, if I say I wouldn't vote for somebody under any circumstances, that's a strong statement, much stronger than "I would under (unknown) circumstances."

I do think there's a little good news here in that underlying those numbers is the fact that Bush's last few points of drop have been, from much of the evidence, Republicans. Most of them will come back on election day if he gives them any excuse.

He was polling 90 percent of Republicans, now he's around 80.

Of course the margins are so thin it's hard to say much with certainty. And we've a ways to go.

Bush MUST get the message of the economy and Saddam's al-Qaeda link out. The media will not do it for him. Bush MUST schedule one prime-time press conference a month for the next four months, and read a prepared statement stressing the nation's economic strength and Saddam's al-Qaeda ties.

If he does this effectively, he opens up a big gap over Kerry going into his convention. A good convention and a busy fall with lots of advertising and speeches will seal the deal.

Communication certainly has been the President's vulnerability. Bush needs to realize that the most important part of his job is the articulation of a vision and the education of the electorate on the issues.

Ace,

Statistically, un-decideds tend to make their choice approximatly two to three days before the election, if the vast majority of un-decideds are already leaning for six months prior to the election Bush, you can pretty much reckon on a Bush victory. Q.E.D

Additionally, part of the reason Bush has been silent of getting out "The Message" is this very simple fact, no use blasting your reserve early, we are wating until Mid-October, when it becoms decisive

It's true that the President shouldn't be doing a lot of heavy "campaign ads" right now. But he should be convincing people of his case every day of every year, as Reagan used to do. Bush did an excellent job at the Air Force academy; if he only did that sort of thing every week, he'd be in a much better position right now. People tend to feel unsure of a leader when they don't hear much from him.