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To me, the remarkable aspect of this poll is not that Biden is leading. It's that it shows 7% of the electorate is undecided. Really? Undecided? This late in the game? And with these two politicians? One who has been fed into our consciousness in every aspect of our lives over the past five years and is currently the president and the other who was vice president and has been in the public sphere for nearly five decades? Who in the hell are this 7% who can't make up their minds?
And then it hit me: They aren't undecided, they lean Trump, but they are waiting to make that final commitment. Something is stopping them. Something relatively intangible. It's the "tone" thing. They are down with his policies and achievements, but they just don't like the guy's attitude. They prefer the "presidential" thing.
Last night, Trump gave them just enough of that tone to help them make that commitment in the final days of the campaign.
If you watch the Luntz panel, which I actually don't suggest you do -- these people are low information voter dopes and mopes -- you'll see Larry O'Connor's observation borne out. Many of the panelists say they just can't vote for Trump because of his personality, while expressing general agreement with his policies.
And several of them say that seeing Trump act in a presidential manner gives them "hope." See the below video at around 27:00 and then again at 36:00 to watch the blonde woman, who is your paradigmatic Suburban Karen who leans Republican but is bothered by Trump, talk about being bothered by Trump's tweets (these people know they can avoid Trump's tweets by getting the fuck off Twitter for a change, right?) but was reassured by his debate performance.
Several of the women say the same basic thing. So does a black guy.
My focus group’s words to describe Trump tonight: • “Controlled” • “Reserved” • “Poised” • “Con artist” • “Surprisingly presidential”
Words to describe Biden tonight: • “Vague” • “Unspecific” • “Elusive” • “Defensive” • “Grandfatherly”