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October 09, 2020

Gallup: 56% of Americans Say They Are Better Off Today Than They Were Four Years Ago

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

The Gallup Poll has just come out with the incredible finding that 56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!

Ronald Reagan won a landslide reelection in 1984. His opponent Walter Mondale asked the public if they were better off than they were four years ago. The public answered "Hell yes" and delivered 49 states plus the District of Columbia to Reagan.

And now 56% of the public say they're better off than they were four years ago.

Four years ago -- under Trump's opponent, Joe Biden.

And note that Walter Mondale was the VP to a president who delivered a horrible economy, only to see that economy revived by a Republican successor.

But now the voters want to return to a period when they were doing more poorly?

They're going to do the equivalent of turning the country over to Jimmy Carter's vice president after four successful years?

Just before the debate, Gallup had Trump gaining four points of approval, and likewise losing four points of disapproval, to get to his highest recent approval rate, 46% to 52%.

I think most would say the debate and covid diagnosis were powerful one-two punch that dropped Trump's support since then.

That's my guess. But I'm not 100% sure of that.

I was observing some politicos I know. They're having a hard time squaring the current polling with what they know anecdotally.

They all note this: Of all the people they know -- including RINOs and squishes and NeverTrumpers who voted against Trump in 2016 -- many of the NeverTrumpers are now reluctant Trump voters, and many of 2016's reluctant Trump voters are now enthusiastic Trump voters.

On the other hand, they don't know anyone who has moved from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden.

One friend tells me that the suburban well-to-do Wine Moms and Squish Sisters he knows are now fully on the MAGA train.

Everyone they know who's moved on The Trump Question (and Trump seems to be the only issue in 2020) has moved in favor of Trump.

They also note that the "Shy Trumper" effect -- where Trump supporters won't admit to pollsters they still support Trump -- is still strong, based on their own experience.

One relates that he did not tell his own children that he voted for Trump, due to social pressure and the idea that he didn't want to "normalize" Trump's bad behavior to his children.

If you can't tell your own kids you voted for Trump, you're not going to tell a pollster.

And this person works in conservative politics, too!

If even people in the conservative movement can't admit they're Trump supporters -- well good luck getting Wendy Wine Mom to admit that on the phone.

A friend of mine was a hardcore NeverTrumper in 2016 but now is a crawl-over-broken-glass Trump Voter. No, he doesn't really like Trump, but unlike Jonah Goldberg and Steve Schmidt, he recognizes the profound threat the left poses to what is left of America.

He has kept in touch with his NeverTrump pals. Media types. The types who annoy you on Twitter.

And while he won't Name Names, he tells me that many of the NeverTrumpers I hate are now "red pilled" Trump voters.

They just won't admit it publicly.

There are people who you all know that I know are voting Trump that would legit shock you. These people have moved to [supporting Trump] in this scenario. And then there's plenty of people like me who didn't vote for Trump and are now enthusiastically doing it this time around. I too worry about being in a bubble, but this story is repeated constantly by everyone. I literally have not heard a single 2016 Trump supporter say they're flipping this year.

Huh, who knows, maybe Jonah Goldberg is one of his Secret Trumper twitter pals. (Pure speculation-- he won't tell me any names. Not that I'd really care. These people are dead to me either way.)

Another friend points out that super-annoying NeverTrump liberal Republican Bethany Mandel ("wife" of ultrac#ck Seth Mandel) is similarly saying on Twitter something like, "Every NeverTrumper I know is quietly voting for him this time."


So yeah: Political types whose job it is to state their political opinions and voting intention are still so cowed by anti-Trump peer pressure that they're lying to their audiences (and editors and publishers) with anti-Trump sounding magazine copy while actually getting ready to pull the lever for Trump.

That makes me think that the Shy Trump Voter effect is very real.

Another point made: If there were a lot of Trump defectors, the media would be profiling them and lionizing them and promoting them 24-7.

But I haven't seen a single story about Trump 2016-Biden 2020 defectors.

The media hasn't found any -- despite the fact that by announcing that you're now a full-on Democrat Liberal, you gain employment opportunities and social prestige.

So if the media can't find any of these people... do they even exist?

One more point, from Vashta Nerada:

Biden is so far ahead, he is campaigning in states Clinton won in 2016.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada

What's the story among the people you know? Do you know any Trump-to-Biden flippers?

How many NeverTrump to Reluctant Trump Voters do you know? How many Reluctant Trump Voters to Enthusiastic Trump Voters do you know?


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posted by Ace at 04:10 PM

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