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March 31, 2009

New York 20th CD Special Election Fearless Prediction Edition

Gabe emailed earlier asking for my prediction in the Tedisco-Murphy race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand and since it's an otherwise slow day, here it is....

Tedisco in a close race.

Turn out in special elections is usually pretty low and this is a district set up for a Republican to win, well a Republican who isn't photographed partying with college kids or reported to have slapped his wife around. Alas, that proved to be a bridge too far for John Sweeney whom Gillibrand defeated to win the seat in '06. The nature of the district should pull Tedisco through in turnout contest.

Also helping Tedisco is that the state legislature is dealing with the state's budget today. It's an all Democrat show in Albany now and people are not pleased with the money being spent and the taxes that are going up. Well, the non-ACORN types anyway and there aren't very many ACORN types in the 20th CD. I think that will help Tedisco at least on the margins, if not more.

Would it shock me if Murphy won? Not greatly but I don't think he will be able to pull it off.

Don't forget it was us here at Ace of Spades HQ (well let's be honest, it was me, modesty has never been my strong suit) who predicted Gillibrand was going to get the Senate nod when the bitches at the vaunted NY Times didn't even have her on their radar screen.

Below the fold, the best of what seemed like thousands of TV ads.

It was run by the DCCC against Tedisco. Now, I'm not endorsing the ad and have no clue how fair it is (I assume like most political ads, it's one part truth and 99 parts BS) but it's so shameless that I love it.

Watch at about 18 seconds where a picture of Tedisco flies onto the screen when the narration refers to someone else using the term, "the convicted felon".

So shamelessly awesome.

digg this
posted by DrewM. at 12:16 PM

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