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August 11, 2021

Democrat Disaster In Pennsylvania [Dave in Fla]

Yes, I know. The Democrats “won” Pennsylvania. That is the only thing that went well for them in the state, and the underlying numbers should hearten and steel the nerve of “Non-Democrat” voters in the Keystone state.

If Republicans stay the course that Donald Trump laid out for them, Pennsylvania will be a Republican state. That's going to happen. - Richard Baris, 2020's most accurate pollster, PeoplesPundit.com

To explain the numbers, I want to return to Idaho and also show some results from Florida. You need to see the results from other states to understand what happened in Pennsylvania.

I have been working on a metric, which I call “Party Performance”. I don’t know if it has any value in evaluating fraud, but it is interesting for seeing whether the state party did its job in turning out the vote. The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) has one job during elections, get registered Republicans to the polls. Convincing Independents to vote for a candidate is left to the campaigns, the party apparatus is all about turnout. On election day, they are monitoring who has voted in every precinct, and if a reliable vote hasn’t voted yet, they are trying to contact them and get them to the polls.

The calculation is a simple one. Divide the number of votes received by a candidate by the number of registered voters in the state for that party. Obviously, there are still a number of people registered by a party who don’t vote, and this is offset by a number of non-affiliated voters who do. So the number is a rough estimate, but I think it is an interesting look at the data. The job of a state party is to register voters and get them to vote for their candidate.


Idaho, again

In Idaho there is historically a high turnout for candidates beyond the registration numbers, especially for the Democrat candidate. This seems to be driven by a large percentage of non-affiliated voters who tend to vote Democrat. In 2016 the total of registered independents equaled the total of GOP and Dem registered voters. That number went down in 2020 as many of the Ind voters registered with the GOP, but the Ind registrations were still over double the Dem registrations.

In 2020 Trump received 14% more votes than GOP registration, while Biden got 125% more votes than Dem registrations. Don’t read too much into that 125% number, in 2016 Clinton exceeded Dem registration by 170%.

Florida

In Florida the party registrations tend to track pretty closely to party strength, and turnout is an extremely important issue for both of the parties. Data about how many voters in each party have turned in absentee ballots and voted at early vote locations is publicly available and used by both parties to gauge how much work they need to do to get their voters to the polls. As a result, both parties will end up with a Party Performance value close to 100%.

Looking at 2020, Trump received 9% more votes than GOP registrations, while Biden received .5% less than Dem registrations. This was an improvement for both parties over 2016 where Trump over performed by 1% and Clinton under performed by 8%. These results show that voting interest on both sides were much higher in 2020, and that the enthusiasm for Trump was approximately equal to the Democrat desire to remove him.

In many ways, Florida indicates the true nature of the election, without the rampant fraud. Higher turnout on both sides which largely cancelled each other out. We get back to that 1.5% number that I talked about previously, that indicate that Biden’s actual vote count was closer to 76 million.

Pennsylvania

So finally let’s take a look at Pennsylvania. One of the notable things in this state is that Biden’s percentage of vote growth advantage is lower than many other states. Biden grew by 18% vs. Trump’s 13.5%. This 4.5% advantage is less than half of the average advantage Biden had nationwide. At first I thought that this was because the Democrats felt they needed to be careful in PA because the state would be examined closely. But I now think it is because Trump over performed in the state way beyond expectations. Pennsylvania didn’t expect Trump to enter the 3 day cheat period with a 1.2 million vote lead. It took all of their efforts just to get to the 80,000 vote win that they eked out.

But how did Democrats do in comparison to their registration advantage? Democrats have 685K more voters in Pennsylvania that Republicans have. In a state where Trump was supposedly hated, and the collar counties with liberal women who couldn’t wait to vote against Trump, you would think that this Democrat advantage would translate into a massive Party Performance advantage for Democrats.

It didn’t.

Biden received 3,458,229 votes in Pennsylvania, including over a million votes that appeared after the polls closed on election day. There are 4,228,888 registered Democrats in the state. The Democrats underperformed their registration numbers by 770,659 votes. This is a Party Performance value of 81.78%.

In a state where the suburban Democrat women couldn’t wait to throw out the evil Trump and his mean tweets, the Democrats had AT A MINIMUM 18% of their voters not bother to vote, and this doesn’t even consider how many of those votes were fraudulent.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the GOP had a Party Performance value of 95.33%. While it doesn’t come close to how well the RPOF did in Florida, it does show much better performance than the Democrats, when there was considerable media and social pressure on Republicans to not vote. Don’t forget that public polls had Biden leading in PA by a significant margin, so there was not much incentive for the LIV Republican voters to turn out.

Portions of the state have changed dramatically in voting patterns, while not changing significantly in registration numbers. During 2000 and 2004 southwest Pennsylvania voted heavily for Gore and then Kerry. They were battleground counties. But in 2016 and especially 2020 Trump carried these counties 60-40. This represents a big move away from Democrats by the working class, which is the only voting block in the state that is growing. The post-graduate class that the Democrats now rely on is static.

My opinion of these numbers is that the Democrat party in Pennsylvania is a disaster. They have relied on fraud in Philadelphia for so long that they don’t have the capability to execute a statewide operation effectively. While they retain a registration advantage, it is worthless since those voters don’t vote. or now vote Republican. There is an opportunity for the Republicans to take control of the state, if they can neutralize the fraud in Philadelphia. And even then, the Democrats needed a 3 day period after the election to inject a million new votes into the system, AFTER performing their typical fraud operations in Philly. Democrats NEED to repeat the absentee voter fraud mechanisms of 2020 in order to win statewide elections.

I’ll be watching the results in 2022 with great interest.

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posted by Open Blogger at 12:20 PM

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