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August 18, 2011

I Think We're In A Second Recession

I know the response is "We never left the last one," but, again, as a technical matter (as these things are strictly defined) we did, and, as a messaging matter, it's actually politically better for us if this is the Obama Recession, not a continuation of the Bush one.

At Hot Air: The Philly Fed's manufacturing index plummets.

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly contracted in August by the most in more than two years as orders plunged and factories shed workers.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index plunged to minus 30.7 this month, the lowest since March 2009, from 3.2 in July. The August gauge exceeded the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg News survey in which the median estimate was 2. Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

...

The report is “signaling a borderline recession,” said John Herrmann, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston...

The Dow seems to confirm this, down 400.

Moody's says we're "dangerously close" to a recession in both the US and the EU.

Our revised forecasts show the US and the euro area hovering dangerously close to a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — over the next 6-12 months," Joachim Fels, who co-heads Morgan Stanley's global economics team, said in a research note dated Wednesday.

Oddly, their official forecasts still show 3+% growth. Who knows what the hell is going on there. Maybe they want to reduce those forecasts slowly (and less embarrassingly) from the previous 4.5%.

European shares too fell the most since 2009.

Drudge runs this picture:

You know, I think someone else mentioned this, but maybe I realized it. When Obama was on this supposed non-political listening tour in swing states, he actually wasn't presenting a plan, of course.

He was promising he would have a plan.

That's odd, isn't it?

What kind of SCOAMF does that? Mounts a twenty car convoy in Darth Vader's heavy-metal band side-project tour bus when he has no actual news to report, nothing new? Just the promise that in ten days or so he might (fingers crossed!) have something to say?

Seems like a panic move. They're in panic, they once again figured that Obama's magical powers of oratory were just what the doctor ordered, and decided to just have the president promise a "plan" ten days hence, like a bad tenant who's late with the rent.


More: 11% of the public is satisfied with the state of the nation. In 2009, it was as low as 7%, but 11% ain't good.

And Romney is selling Magical Misery Tour t-shirts.

And I am tempted.



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posted by Ace at 01:33 PM

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