Hampton Prescott on “The Curley Effect” – Municipal Mismanagement that Perpetuates Political Power by Driving Away Responsible Opposition

[I needed backup for today’s Morning Rant, so friend-of-the-blog Hampton Prescott kindly offered up another of his excellent essays on the need for a revival of “municipal conservatism” to rescue failing cities. Specifically, I asked Hampton if he would discuss the subject of productive citizens fleeing cities - why it’s happening, the business community’s indifference to it, and what can be done to reverse the problem. I always assumed that the flight of law-abiding, tax-paying residents was a consequence of liberal mismanagement, but as Hampton explains, there is actually a term, “The Curley Effect,” for destructive municipal governance that benefits those in power by driving away responsible citizens who might otherwise vote incumbents out of office. Mr. Prescott’s essay is below the fold. – Buck]

Being a student of history is indispensable, in that it equips you with the capacity to cut through the “we are living through unprecedented times” noise. It also helps tremendously in spotting past parallels to current social, political and economic dynamics.

One aspect of history that is of particular interest is the political career of James Michael Curley, four-time mayor of Boston and governor of Massachusetts in the early-to-mid 20th Century. Curley’s influence persists to this day through what is known as “The Curley Effect,” defined as a political strategy and economic model where targeted, inefficient, or divisive public policies are intentionally leveraged to drive political opponents out. By encouraging wealthier or opposing demographics to flee, the politician employing The Curley Effect alters the local voter base to secure permanent power, even if the strategy causes long-term economic decline. The impact on Boston and Massachusetts in general was disastrous, as Curley’s tenure coincided with Boston suffering from economic stagnation that took until the "Massachusetts Miracle" in the 1980’s to truly shake off.

I can’t help but think of The Curley Effect when I see the abysmal governance of our major cities today. Specifically, it came to mind when I saw a clip of Seattle’s newly elected Mayor Katie Wilson respond to the outflow of the private sector from the City with a vapid response of (verbatim) “To the ones that leave, like bye! Hahaha!”

You don’t have to squint hard to see the connection between the high property taxes and spending policies in Boston that drove out the private sector and the anemic response to crime, vagrancy and other quality of life matters in Seattle that is driving away stalwart institutions like Starbucks and Amazon. No shortage of ink has been spilled on the rise of the far left in major cities over the past decade. What is missing from much of this commentary is the idea that this incompetence could be intentional in order to lock in long-term political power.

The good news is that the Curley Effect is not an immutable law of urban physics (contrary to the opinion of many commentators.) It thrives in environments of low accountability and general apathy. The solutions are there for those serious about reclaiming the cultural and economic beacons that are our cities.

First, business communities nationwide need to shake off the apathy and ineffectiveness that has defined their “activities” in the past decade and re-assert the influence that they once had in their respective cities. Two destructive causes of this unfortunate development:

1) Short-sighted libertarianism that puts a mask on lack of interest in the hard work of fostering on-the-ground relationships; or

2) ESG-type grifting which outsourced much of the work out of “community involvement” for executives.

Other major causes include corporate consolidation that removed many institutional pillars from many major cities and increasing financialization of the real estate sectors. The major real estate owners who had breakfast with city council member once a week were displaced by faceless institutions lacking long-term interest in the viability of the cities they purchased property in.

Sun Belt cities have always been held back due to the lack of a healthy urban core (this has arguably kept them from reaching the prominence of a New York or San Francisco, despite predictions to the contrary stretching back to the 50s), so a scenario where cities like Seattle emulate this structure is one that will make for a less productive and sadder country. The business community needs to get out from behind the Zoom call taken from Palm Beach and take action.

Second (covering the nuts and bolts of policy solutions here) there is a need to impose hard fiscal and governance constraints. Strict balanced-budget requirements, supermajority thresholds for tax increases, and independent performance audits make it harder to fund patronage networks or soft-on-crime experiments indefinitely. Term limits for mayors and city councils reduce the payoff from long-term demographic engineering. Recall mechanisms and robust citizen-initiative processes give remaining residents tools to reverse course before decline becomes terminal. Beyond formal reforms, people concerned with The Curley Effect taking over their hometowns can utilize their social media accounts to hold governance to account. There are many excellent accounts in Atlanta who draw attention to shortcomings in things ranging from mass transit experience to permitting timelines. Social media can be a very valuable tool in this regard.

Third, prioritize the basic public goods that keep productive people in place: competent policing, clean streets, functional schools, and predictable property rights. Cities that restore order and reverse the visible decay of public spaces reverse the outbound migration of the tax base. These are not ideological luxuries; they are the minimum conditions for retaining the human capital that funds everything else. In my experience, my posts on restoring law and order and urban beautification get likes across the wide political spectrum, so the idea that these issues are firmly partisan is a highly questionable one.

History shows that the Curley Effect can be broken. Boston eventually recovered once policy shifted toward growth and competence under Governor Dukakis in the 1980’s. Today’s cities face the same choice. The politicians who wave goodbye to departing employers and residents are not invincible; they are simply betting that voters and institutions will remain passive. Raising the price of that bet, through aggressive counteraction, constraints, and competence, is the practical path out.

HAMPTON PRESCOTT

posted by Buck Throckmorton at 11:00 AM

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