Whip Count: Pelosi Needs 25 out of 29 "Maybes" To Break Her Way

Folks are asking where the whip count is right now. Here's what we know:

Nancy needs 216 votes. She has 191 Democrats definitely on board, so she's 25 short. Here's where she can get them.

No Pretty Much Means No:
These were twenty-one "No" Democrats in November who still make noises that sound like "no". Nancy is trying to get a few of these to change their votes and the President is prepared now to offer bribes like the Louisiana Purchase:

Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Artur Davis (AL-7), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8 ), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Jim Marshall (GA-8 ), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-7), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-All) Heath Shuler (NC-11), Ike Skelton (MO-4), Gene Taylor (MS-4).

A few of these folks, like Kucinich, voted no because it wasn't socialist enough. I'm not confident they won't "feel the call of history" if final passage comes down to one vote, notwithstanding their current protestations. However, most of this group goes in the Definitely Not, Not No Way, Not No How category, having already announced that they will stand by their earlier votes. Notice how many come from Red states.

Wont Vote For A Bill That Kills Babies:
Then there's the Stupak Dozen. These are "yes" votes in November that are now "no" votes. The confirmed members are: Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), Dan Lipinski (IL-3). The conjectured final members include Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9).

It's An Election Year:
Then there's the other "yes" votes who have publicly switched: Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Luis Guterrez (IL-4). I wouldn't count on Gutierrez to stand by his "no" threat, though. He looks like he's trying to wring some concessions out of the leadership on the proposed comprehensive immigration piece of shit. Carney is a lock; he wants to get re-elected. Arcuri sounded pretty sure of himself, but we'll see.

Maybe:
That leaves the maybes. There are thirteen who voted "yes" the first time, but have refused to commit to voting the same way this time:

Tim Bishop (NY-1), Mike Doyle (PA-14), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ).

And there are sixteen who voted "no" the first time who could be victims of Rahm-in-the-lockerroom-with-the-lead-pipe bullying or Cornhusker Compromise bribery because they haven't declared yet what they plan to do:

John Adler (NJ-3), Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Bart Gordon (TN-6), Molly Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2).

So Pelosi needs 25 out of 29 maybes to break her way, 16 of whom voted "no" on the House bill once before.

NOTE: If you think I've got one of these guys in the wrong group and have a statement from the Congresscritter demonstrating it email me at [gabriel.malor at gmail] and I will update the count.

Also, if you're keeping an eye on the whip count, you definitely want to be checking back with Jay Cost.

posted by Gabriel Malor at 02:51 PM

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