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March 18, 2009

Hmmm...: Dick Morris Argues Obama Appeal Even Weaker Than It Appears

Catch me now I'm falling:

Obama got 52 percent of the national vote. So when his approval drops, as it has, from 65 percent on Inauguration Day to 56 percent now (according to Rasmussen), he is playing with house money. Most of those who are coming to negative conclusions about his administration didn't vote for him in the first place.

But there are ominous signs in the data.

...

Some news organizations like to compare how Obama is doing with how other presidents fared. Specifically, at this point in their presidencies, George W. Bush was at 58 percent approval while Clinton stood at 53 percent. By that measurement, Obama's 56 percent would seem in the normal range.

But Clinton won with only 42 percent of the vote in 1992, and Bush got 49 percent. Obama, of course, won 52 percent of the vote. So here's how the vote-to-popularity ratio stacks up:

• Clinton: Vote 42%; Job Approval 53%; Difference +11%

• W. Bush: Vote 49%; Job Approval 58%; Difference + 9%

• Obama: Vote 52%; Job Approval 56%; Difference + 4%

...not very good.

Other bad news: His two signature pieces of legislation (well, one was Nancy Pelosi's) aren't popular. Or the stimulus is barely popular, but majorities don't expect it to work. And the public is hostile to bank bailouts.

So what exactly is going to save Obama?

The economy? If the economy improves, then Obama should be fine. Even if we merely manage to avoid a depression, he'll get some (undeserved) credit.

But Obama is actually actively sabotaging the economy. So what good news is likely to halt his falling numbers?


Sorry... My damn keyboard sucks, especially the "l," which I have to pound on like a madman. That "pubic" typo is going to keep happening, I'm afraid.


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posted by Ace at 02:12 PM

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