Good News! Rep. Bud Cramer (D-AL) to retire.

Thereby opening a House Seat that Republicans stand a chance of picking up.

Cramer's seat has long been a thorn in the side of GOP'ers. The area he represents (essentially Northern Alabama along the Tennessee border) is viewed by many as a GOP-seat in waiting. Demographically, it contains one of the lowest percentages of minority voters in Alabama, and it has strong ties to both NASA and the military due to the programs that are based in the districts largest population center, Huntsville.

But, after a scare in 1994 (an election Cramer won by 2,000 votes), Cramer moved to the right to solidify his creds as a "Blue Dog Democrat." For example, I believe he even earned the NRA's endorsement in his post-94 races. He really hasn't faced a serious challenge since then.

Further, his announcement has caught both parties off-guard. It was completely unexpected. In fact, some Democrats felt that Cramer would make a good challenger to either Richard Shelby or Jeff Sessions should he decide to enter the race. So entrenched was Cramer, that there is no immediate "heir apparent" to his seat.

Interestingly, Cramer will remain a superdelegate this year. To date he is not pledged to either Clinton or Obama. Now that he doesn't have to worry about re-election, it will be interesting to see who he selects. It will also be fun to see if any conspiracy theories emerge about this being a factor in his surprise decision to quit.

If John McCain does have coat-tails as the nominee, this is the kind of district that will be an early indicator on election night. Many of the self-identified Democrats in this district are of the "Reagan Democrat" variety. If Maverick can't pull these Democrats into his column, November could be very ugly indeed.

This report has been brought to you by Jack M. Barone. Now back to the AoSHQ Decision Desk where Ace is getting awfully chummy with Shep Smith.

posted by Jack M. at 11:02 AM

| Access Comments