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October 09, 2004

Rasmussen: Bush at 50% Support

First time all year either candidate has hit the magic majority. Bush 50 (well, 49.6) Kerry 46 (actually 45.9).

Meanwhile, Zogby, who's tended to be one of the worst pollsters for Bush (and best for Kerry), shows Kerry emerging with a very-much-inside-the-MoE one point lead, 46-45.

I think Bush was badly damaged by that first debate. However, I think the damage was not as catastrophic as it might have been, and furthermore his second debate performance was much, much stronger. Many fewer people watched this second debate, but they'll hear from the pundicracy that it was either a draw or slight Bush win. Bush didn't deliver a knockout, but he did manage a smooth and reassuring appearance, much-needed after his weak first performance.

Long story short: If that first debate wasn't enough to put Kerry ahead outside the MoE, I don't know what else could do at this point.

Well, except for the obvious-- a major terrorist attack of the sort that could plausibly be blamed on American negligence for failing to prevent.

Update: Ipsos/AP has it all knotted up at 47% apeice.

Not as bad as it seems. Kerry on his best week manages a tie. Bush on his best week manages a 6-8 point lead.

Kerry could win-- no doubt about that. But he'll have to have a great week at the end of October, whereas Bush only needs a fair week to take home the prize.

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posted by Ace at 03:01 PM

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