The Morning Rant

Does the current conflict in Iran represent an inflection point in the strategy of war?

Israel has honed its skills at decapitating the various Islamic terrorist organizations that have besieged it since its founding, using a combination of electronic (and other) intelligence gathering, sending clandestine services into the hearts of those organizations, carefully cultivating spies within and without those terrorist groups, and probably most of all, being nimble and able to respond very quickly to actionable information.

But the vast improvement in missile technology, coupled with the revolution in drones that allows surveillance in real time and almost instantaneous attacks, has shifted the paradigm. No longer are the leaders mostly safe from attack. And that has been used to great effect in Iran, with the top tier of leaders mostly killed, their replacements mostly killed, and even their replacements killed, or so far down the organizational command structure that their decisions are not yet considered important.

That brings unbelievable uncertainty to the conduct of the war, and while any competent armed force has contingency plans for loss of leadership, those plans are by definition locked into a strategy that has become useless.

No plan survives first contact with the enemy

In addition to its military's lack of coordination, its justly feared internal security apparatus is able to detain or kill street protesters, but has lost central command, so there is very little intelligence being gathered on the growing rebellion.

It is a recipe for disaster on all fronts, and regardless of whether the Mullahs can retain control, or the army or IRGC stages a coup, the days of Iran being a regional power and exporting its brand of Shia Islam terror across the world are over.

And all of this was accomplished with superb human and technical intelligence, real-time military action on that intelligence, and amazingly accurate munitions that simply did not exist a generation ago.

Imagine the beginning of World War II, If Great Britain had been able to kill Hitler and Göring and Himmler and Goebbels and Bormann and Keitel and Raeder and Donitz and von Ribbentrop and a few dozen others at the top of the Nazi hierarchy. Or far more chilling...imagine if in May 1940 Nazi Germany had killed Churchill and Bevin and Portal and Montgomery and Dowding and Slim.

The counter-argument from the increasingly unhinged supporters of Iran is that martyrdom is a victory. Well, then in a few weeks when the entire hierarchy of the Iranian Mullahcracy is dead, we should declare victory for Iran! Then the people of Iran can reconstitute some semblance of a government, and we can leave, with the admonition: "Don't make us come back!"

[Crossposted at CutJibNewsletter and X/Twitter]. If you folks who are on X/Twitter would follow us it would be much appreciated!

posted by CBD at 11:00 AM

| Access Comments