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December 05, 2023
Was the Ceasefire Worth It? [Diogenes]So. CBD has asked me to bore you all with another installment of Divination by Diogenes. I agreed to do so as he has made vague references to an upgrade to full blown tin foil membership and a week’s supply of dental floss. So here goes… Two points to think about today. The first is what did Israel gain from the ceasefire? Was it really worth pausing the successful ground campaign? Short (and long) answer is yes and you’ll see my thinking shortly. The second is that now is time to begin thinking about The Day After Hamas. What happens when Israel finally crushes Hamas, somebody representing the Palestinians surrenders, and the war is over? But first, why the pause in the fighting in the first place? The easy answer is because of the hostages. OK, sure. They were important, but taking a broader view, there are many other advantages that the Israeli Defense forces (IDF) gained from the pause. First, they never really let up the pressure on Hamas. Yes, there was a general cessation to fighting, but almost every break by Hamas in the ceasefire was met with an overwhelming response. Further, the IDF continued to maneuver their forces and this worked to keep Hamas off balance. Third, it gave them time to interrogate prisoners and the hostages to get better intelligence on Hamas. The Palestinians are not a monolithic group and are composed of a number of clans. There are many who are done with Hamas, or were never real supporters to begin with, and who are willing to provide the IDF with valuable battlefield data. You can bet this information will figure into the next phase of the war. We will probably see this borne out as we evaluate the IDF actions in the days ahead. Fourth, it gave Israel time to rest and refit their troops. This is hugely important. A month and a half is a long time on the lines. Those troops needed a break if only for a few days. It will make a big difference in the next phase. And these are now the experts in this war. They have learned how to fight Hamas and will be passing this knowledge to others. Next, the pause and the release of hostages created a wave of compassion for the hostages as their stories were made public. It also fueled the fire within the IDF to continue the mission. Everywhere Netanyahu has gone to visit the troops, the common call was to “Turn us loose!” and “Let us finish!” Those soldiers know why they are there. They smell victory and they want it. The hostage release has also shed light on the international stage. Nations, the UN, NGOs, and influential people are beginning to declare themselves to a side. This will influence the political arena in the days ahead. Another advantage, albeit an unfortunate one, are the new Hamas atrocities are occurring as their fighters initiate attacks within Israel (the bus stop shootings). These acts continue to legitimize Israel’s war and the next phase of its campaign. Hamas’ actions are reminding the world why Israel is there fighting in Gaza. Discoveries like the hidden military equipment in UN crates is another recent example. The media may try hard to ignore it, but they cannot ignore the facts. We shall see. Look for that in the next installment. ["Diogenes" has multiple graduate degrees with a focus on the Middle East, and an Army Intelligence Officer graduate of both the Army and USMC Command and Staff Colleges.] | Recent Comments
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Daily Tech News 22 November 2024
The Unbearable Lightness Of ONTing Guardian Dogs Cafe Trump Nominates Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi for AG "Trans Woman" Transferred to Women's Prison Rapes and Impregnates An Actual Woman Corrupt Democrat-Rigged Illinois Supreme Court Overturns Sentence of Protected Race Hoaxer Jussie Smollett Denver Mayor Threatens Armed Resistance to ICE Deportations Under Trump Nancy Mace Rips AOC's "Tiny Little Brain" and Biased Trans-Crazed Fake Journalist's "Leftwing Talking Points" Rogue "Republican" Seantors Force Matt Gaetz's Withdrawal Rob Reiner Quits Twitter Due To Its Hate, Then Curses Blue Sky for Its Hate, Then Checks Himself Into a "Facility" Search
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