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August 31, 2020

JP Morgan Head Quantitative Analyst Says Trump's Odds of Winning Have Improved; Recommends That Clients Position Their Investments Accordingly
New Emerson Poll Puts Trump Within Two of Biden

Note how big he believes the "Shy Trump" effect is.

JPMorgan sees President Trump's odds of reelection gaining momentum and advised clients on Monday to position accordingly.

Investors can expect a five- to 10-point shift in polling from Democrats to Republicans if the general public begins to perceive pro-Democrat demonstrations as violent, Marko Kolanovic, head of macro quantitative and derivatives research at JPMorgan, said.

The "liberal trend of 'cancel culture'" is likely behind a larger share of Trump voters saying they lie in polls, Kolanovic added.

That effect could artificially skew polls up to 6% in favor of Biden, the head quant said.

Six points. Six points of bias due to the media's and government functionaries relentless demonization of anyone who supports Trump.

Which just happens to be Biden's recent "lead" over Trump.

Update: New Emerson poll puts Trump within two of Biden, nationally.

Thanks to rickb223 and JackStraw.

A friend points out that this Emerson Poll pegs Trump's support among blacks at a very healthy 19%.


He notes that the media Twitter Addicts were laughing at Rasmussen's finding of 20% black support. Well, this poll confirms that.

Meanwhile, Biden's ventriloquists asked, rhetorically, if "anyone believes" that violence will decrease if Trump is elected.

Well, Rasmussen finds that a plurality believes that the country will become "more divided" if Trump loses:

But a plurality (46%) now believes that America will become more divided if Trump is defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election, up from 38% last fall. Thirty-five percent (35%) say the country would be less divided. Eighteen percent (18%) think the level of division would be about the same.

In Missouri -- a red state, but usually a close one, and a major flashpoint for Black Lives Matter terror -- a poll shows Trump clobbering Biden by ten points:

The Real James Madison points out that Trump won Missouri by 20 points in 2016. Well, 18.5. That's true -- but the polls (which should be the thing we're looking at) showed Trump ahead by 9.5 points.

So I do think that Trump being 10 ahead in Missouri shows that he's at or above 2016 levels of strength.

Rasmussen demonstrates the weird lack of polls by flashing back to the same week (as far as the election calendar) of 2016. Look at all of the polls then:

I wonder why they might be doing that.

They might be doing a lot of extra "weighing" and "adjusting" the numbers.

Probably because the newest polls are so strong for AllahPundit's candidate.

Thanks for that tip to WisRich.

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posted by Ace at 03:53 PM

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