Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
The Classical Saturday Morning Coffee Break & Prayer Revival
Daily Tech News 26 July 2025 Gentlemen, This Is The ONT Manifest Fri-Yay Cafe The Week in Woke Ninth Circuit Panel: No, You Can't Discriminate Against Christians Just Because They Refuse To Say They'd Support Transing Their Children NPR's Top Editor Resigns After Propaganda Network Loses $500 Million in Federal Funding, Claims Her Resignation Has Nothing to Do With the Cuts Alligator Alcatraz Airlines Begins Sending Illegals Back Home; Vance Predicts We May See Net Negative Immigration In the Next Year How Obama Took Hillary Clinton's Dirty OppoDump Cocaine and Cooked Off the Impurities to Turn It Into Clean, Healthy Psyops Crack Biden's Former Top Aide Ron Klain Testifies, Sticking to the Party Line That Biden Was Not "Politically Viable" But Still Was Totally Competent to Remain President Hunter Biden: Hot Damn, Crack Is My Jam!!! Absent Friends
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025 Jewells45 2025 Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
|
« The Morning Rant |
Main
| CNN's Gay and Trans Festival Was Even Too Extreme for Liberal Gays »
October 16, 2019
Moody's Analytics' Very Accurate Election Model -- Which Has Only Been Wrong Once in 40 Years -- Points to Trump Victory, Possibly a Crushing OneBefore getting to the current model, we should look at the one time the model broke down. Which was... 2016. As the prediction stood on November 1, 2016: Low gas prices and President Barack Obama’s high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White Hou:se in next week’s election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests. So it got that one wrong. Moody's projection is largely based on underlying economic factors -- pocketbook, stock market, unemployment rate -- with a comparatively small dependence on polling information. So, assuming the economy stays healthy, the current forecast is for a Trump victory even bigger than the one erroneously predicted for Hillary. Moody's Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average. I don't know if that proviso if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average is likely to be true. Seems to me 2020 will be abnormally passionate and have an abnormally high turnout. But that doesn't necessarily cut against Trump too badly, as the forecast goes on to say. Moody's forecast is here. They explain that their erroneous prediction of a Clinton win was based on a 2-year graph of low gas prices, but, had they instead used a one-year frame.... Beginning in 2014, gasoline prices experienced their largest two-year decline leading up to a presidential election. Historically, two-year declines in gasoline prices have a strong statistical relationship with incumbent parties maintaining control of the White House. Therefore, we used the two-year decline in gasoline prices as an independent variable in the 2016 election model, and it was enough to offset many other explanatory variables that were working against Clinton at the time. However, if we had shortened the time frame for the decline in gasoline prices from two years to one year, the 2016 model would have instead predicted a Trump win. This owed, at least in part, to the timing of the decline in gasoline prices. Though the two-year drop was the largest leading up to an election, most of the decline occurred in 2014 and early 2015 (see Chart 2). This meant that the price decline in the 12 months before the 2016 election was barely noticeable, providing little boost to the then-incumbent Democratic Party. Gas prices dropped a lot two years before 2016, but almost not at all since 2015. So the public was not feeling great about gas prices. It's very easy to adjust a "forecasting" model post hoc and change your variables to retroactively "predict" past events you already know happened. Still, that's their explanation. As to turnout: in an election with turnout near the historical average, Trump wins with 322 votes. But even assuming maximum turnout seen in past elections (that is, the highest turnout one could reasonably expect), the Democrats are predicted to win -- but only barely. That projection suggests that Democrats would just barely cross the 270 threshold with 279, and Trump would lose with 259. Even with maximum historical turnout, the Democrats can't afford to have any states wind up more Trump-leaning than average, or else they'll lose their slight edge. Meanwhile, in a low turnout election (something I'm pretty sure will not happen), Trump wins with 380 electoral votes. This is probably premature, but we get so much bad polling news, I thought it's maybe worth pointing out that a model based on economic modeling projects a likely Trump hold. | Recent Comments
[/i][/b]SpeakingOf:
"[i]How did GPD manage to cram a Ryzen AI Max 395+ ..."
Pixy Misa: "[i]18 Why is it that news related to computers and ..." Just Wondering : "Birdbath status? ..." fd: "I see AOC is going to have to pay for renting her ..." Marcus T: "“ Blessed are the poor in spirit, for t ..." Cicero Skip: "I just got on and we are only at 46 comments. Must ..." fluffy: ">>> The same thing we do every day--try to take ov ..." The Brain: " mornin yall. I'll ask the question that I ask Bru ..." fd: "I know what Diamondrya Traneele Simmons is doing t ..." fd: "mornin yall. I'll ask the question that I ask Brun ..." Hadrian the Seventh: " Odd. When I show up here, suddenly everyone has ..." Hadrian the Seventh: " Good morning, Hordians. Hope the rain holds off ..." Recent Entries
The Classical Saturday Morning Coffee Break & Prayer Revival
Daily Tech News 26 July 2025 Gentlemen, This Is The ONT Manifest Fri-Yay Cafe The Week in Woke Ninth Circuit Panel: No, You Can't Discriminate Against Christians Just Because They Refuse To Say They'd Support Transing Their Children NPR's Top Editor Resigns After Propaganda Network Loses $500 Million in Federal Funding, Claims Her Resignation Has Nothing to Do With the Cuts Alligator Alcatraz Airlines Begins Sending Illegals Back Home; Vance Predicts We May See Net Negative Immigration In the Next Year How Obama Took Hillary Clinton's Dirty OppoDump Cocaine and Cooked Off the Impurities to Turn It Into Clean, Healthy Psyops Crack Biden's Former Top Aide Ron Klain Testifies, Sticking to the Party Line That Biden Was Not "Politically Viable" But Still Was Totally Competent to Remain President Hunter Biden: Hot Damn, Crack Is My Jam!!! Search
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Primary Document: The Audio
Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer Top Top Tens
Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |