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April 13, 2016

Oh No: Analyst Says a Recession Worse Than 2008 Is Coming

That would be very, very bad.

This guy's pretty strident, which diminishes his credibility (in my eyes at least), but this tracks with my own research on the subject. (Note: I have done no research on the subject.)

[A] recession has occurred in the U.S. about every five years, on average, since the end of WWII; and it has been seven years since the last one -- we are overdue.

Most importantly, the average market drop during the peak to trough of the last 6 recessions has been 37 percent. That would take the S&P 500 down to 1,300; if this next recession were to be just of the average variety.

But this one will be worse.

A major contributor for this imminent recession is the fallout from a faltering Chinese economy...

Now that this debt bubble is unwinding, growth in China is going offline. The renminbi's falling value, cascading Shanghai equity prices (down 40 percent since June 2014) and plummeting rail freight volumes (down 10.5 percent year over year), all clearly illustrate that China is not growing at the promulgated 7 percent, but rather isn't growing at all. The problem is that China accounted for 34 percent of global growth, and the nation's multiplier effect on emerging markets takes that number to over 50 percent.

Note: This article is from January. I got it from Ed Driscoll. I accept all blaming him for this.

It gets worse, too: Another analyst says that the "end-game" of Japan's 25 year struggle against its economic collapse is also on the way.

But you know: Obama's economy is so strong I'm sure it can resist external shocks such as these.

HOW LOW WILL IT GO?
JITTERS ON THE STREET...
"The 2016 recession will make 1929 look like 1873..."
Jibble bibble argle bargle...
WASHINGTON BRACES...

ROGER STONE: TED CRUZ IS A "SPLAY-FOOTED GOOF"...
TRUMP: YOU CAN'T TRUST OL' PENGUIN-FEET TED
WORLD WILDLIFE FOUNDATION: ARE PENGUINS RAPISTS?


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posted by Ace at 01:12 PM

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