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March 09, 2016

It's Time for Cruz to Take Rubio Out In Florida, and Kasich Out in Ohio -- Even If It Means Delivering These States to Trump

Yes, it's time. It's time to go all in on this, even if, short-term, it benefits Trump.

On CNN last night, Mary Katherine Ham said it was against Cruz's interests (or might be against his interests) to kneecap Rubio in Florida, because doing so puts that state into Trump's column. And that would mean the percentage of the remaining delegates Cruz would need to top Trump would go up from something like 54% to 66%.

However, let's look at the flip side -- what happens if Rubio and Kasich win? In that case, both men will declare victory -- obviously -- and then say this proves what they've been saying all along, that America is now ready to embrace them, that the map looks better from them starting with Guam, that they're going to take it all the way to the convention.

And then we continue on with the field unwinnowed, and Trump continuing to win more delegates than Cruz by 43% to 36% margins. Not huge margins -- but they'll get you there, and if you're not gaining on Trump, you're losing to Trump.

Thus, the way I see it, the downside to Cruz of delivering Florida and Ohio to Trump is less down than the downside of letting Rubio and Kasich get their stupid fucking Participation Trophy and their excuse (and financial backing) to continue dicking around in a race that neither man can win. Neither of these guys can win more delegates than Trump now; both are hoping just to have a contested convention, and then hope that the Establishment reaches past the 1st and 2nd place finishers to deliver the win to the third or fourth place "winner" -- Rubio Gold come literally true, in other words.

This makes no sense from Cruz's perspective.

It's time to take them both out, and then take his chances one-on-one with Trump, 250 or more delegates behind. It's a bad situation to be in, but if, after knocking these two Participation Trophy Collectors, he could start winning by 56% to 44%, he could start to wear down Trump's delegate lead to something winnable at a contested convention.

If Trump has 1200 delegates, the GOP will probably give him the nomination, and probably should.

But if it comes down to something like Trump 1075, Cruz 875, well, that's not really a slam-dunk for Trump anymore. Sure, Trump has more delegates.. and based on that hypothetical, Cruz would have won more delegates lately. That is, he'd be the won winning the latest contests, and could make the case "Sure Trump did great on Super Tuesday and then March 15th, but since then, I've been beating him. He has more delegates, but my delegates are fresher, newer information. He was the guy winning then, I'm the guy winning now."

And throw in some unlikely scenarios, maybe a couple of Winner Take Alls or Winner Take Mosts, and maybe even Cruz gets more delegates than Trump. (Though, in the scenario I'm sketching, I think it would be impossible for anyone but Trump to get to 1237; but there are scenarios where neither man gets 1237, but Cruz winds up with a bigger plurality.)

But if Rubio and Kasich stay in, and continue kneecapping Cruz from winning (or winning these crucial Winner Take Alls by 50% - Cruz would be ahead of Trump if Rubio hadn't played in Texas or Idaho), then there is no shot to get Cruz anywhere near Trump's tally -- and Trump wins the nomination.

So tell me the Truth, guys: Is #NeverTrump a real thing, or is it just a quick dash of new paint on the #Rubio4Ever thing you've had going for a year now?

If you want to stop Trump, you need to end these Rubio fantasies and let the only guy with an actual chance of stopping him start getting into two man races with him.

Otherwise, your #NeverTrump slogan is a lie -- you're perfectly fine with Trump. You just are using that as another pretext to lobby for Rubio.

So yeah, from Cruz's point of view, and frankly from any sane Republican's point of view (that is, apart from the Rubio and Kasich diehards) -- it's time to cash these two guys out. Out.

These guys are throwing the race to Trump.

And their supporters will not give up on their fantasies until those fantasies are violently torn from their hands, set on fire, and then buried under a swamp.

Clowntime is over. The time for Rubio Fantasy Love Scenarios is over. It's time for real, tough decisions to be made, or to be made on behalf of those who just can't get over it.

Also: I should note Marco Rubio currently does not have a job, and so pretty much anything is going to encourage him to stay in this job interview process, even if he actually has no chance to get the job.

And then Rubio will just keep waiting for Cruz to drop out, which isn't going to happen given that Cruz is on the next level above Rubio, and Rubio will continue splitting the vote until he delivers the nomination to Trump.

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posted by Ace at 09:39 AM

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