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September 27, 2013
Now They Tell Us: New York Times Editorial Announces It Was A Mistake to Take the Mann Hockey Stick "Seriously"You may wonder why such a statement would be made in the New York Times. Well, not because they're giving up on the Cult of Angry Gaia. No. What's happened is that given the 15 year long hiatus in temperature change, certain proofs that the Science Is Settled You Guys have to be tossed out in order to save the rest of it. In the editorial, the author argues that the Hockey Stick was always silly and therefore we shouldn't be misled by reliance upon it. The Hockey Stick showed, and projected, ever-rising global temperatures; well that was just plain ol' silly, this writer now says, and you shouldn't hold it against Global Warming that one of their most widely publicized Political Advertisements turns out to have been bunk. You should still totes believe in Global Warming. Just don't put any stock in that silly Hockey Stick graph that was used to sell Global Warming for the past, what, 30 years? See, if you ignore that Hockey Stick, and accept, as the writer (now he tells us) announces, that the Hockey Stick always had " too much certainty and inappropriate simplicity," and just accept that Global Warming might be much more variable and unpredictable than previously claimed, then you can accept the truth that it's Totally Predictable and We're All Going to Die So Just Believe Us Please. The writer claims he "predicted" the 15 year pause in temperature increase: “Suppose... future measurements in the years 2005-2015 show a clear and distinct global cooling trend. (It could happen.) If we mistakenly took the hockey stick seriously — that is, if we believed that natural fluctuations in climate are small — then we might conclude (mistakenly) that the cooling could not be just a random fluctuation on top of a long-term warming trend, since according to the hockey stick, such fluctuations are negligible. And that might lead in turn to the mistaken conclusion that global warming predictions are a lot of hooey. If, on the other hand, we reject the hockey stick, and recognize that natural fluctuations can be large, then we will not be misled by a few years of random cooling.” A few years of random cooling = a fifteen year pause? He then admits he predicted nothing:
Um, no it's not. All you "predicted" was that overly confident cocksure predictions might blow up in the predictor's face (especially if they're based on bullshit!), which any number of charlatans and Astrologers throughout history could have told you. That's why they write Astrological Forecasts vaguely. Apparently a Scientific Prediction now consists of: (It could happen.) And also of conflating a "few years of random cooling" with "a sustained decade-and-a-half of no warming at all." We are now in that pause... The pause he didn't predict but is still implying he did, by calling it "that pause," the one I predicted. No you didn't. You admitted that, briefly, then went right back to asserting what you'd already conceded as false. ...and too many people are taking it too seriously[.] Ahem. I think too many people are taking your Finagler's Constant nonsense seriously, including yourself. The guy wants credit for a prediction he never made. "Science."
Speaking of 2004 Predictions... In early 2004, a foul-mouthed time-traveling Baloney sandwich named Johnny Coldcuts predicted a 4-0 Red Sox World Series sweep. No seriously I -- through my alter ego of Johnny Coldcuts -- actually predicted that. I used "Science." Which, in some cases, looks very much like a silly guess. The New Science of Global Warming: Flatbush Joe writes: NYT Science: Sometimes Global Warming Takes A Pause There's a good explanation for this form of "Science" -- Barnum Statements. RiverC. explains it in a different way.
Yes, like when you announce that a character on a show has a long-lost presumed-dead brother despite having already announced he was an Only Child. Frasier Crane was claimed to be an only child on Cheers, before it was retconned that he had a brother named Niles for the Frasier show. And we're not supposed to notice this backfilling and retconning is Slightly at odds with their previous claims that they had it All Worked Out Down To the Tiniest Details, Yo.
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