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October 12, 2012

Virginia: Seven Point Romney Lead
Romeny 50-46 in... New Hampshire, Per ARG

Well, that's before Biden's awesome debate performance moves the polls.

Sarcasm. No, it's not very funny. But I tried.


Maybe a little less than that.

But enough about me, let's talk about a poll.

Now before you bitchez complain, I just dropped a gen-u-ine serious news story. So get off my nuts.

Mitt Romney has taken a commanding 7-point lead over President Barack Obama in another Virginia poll.

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

Rasmussen will be posting VA numbers later.

In Florida (not VA), Rasmussen has it 51-47 (Romney winning), so it seems like two of our must-haves are moving our way. That Rasmussen poll confirms the Mason-Dixon/Tampa Bay Times one yesterday, showing Romney ahead (but by an even larger lead, seven points).

So you will understand why Democrats are so insistent on claiming Senator Clownfart totally rilly won the debate!!11eleventy!

CAC passed a fun little poll on that to me, too, but I'm holding that for now, because I'm spacing my poll-posts out. 'Cuz I'm takin' a half-day, bitchez.

(BTW, the new season of It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia debuted last night. I didn't warn you because I didn't know myself; I caught the last half of the 2am repeat. But I started watching old episodes recently, so everything with me is "bitchez.")

Monte Carlo Simulations: @seanmdav ran some simulations (trial runs) to determine the likelihood of victory based on current poll numbers in swing states.

Note this chart is the likelihood of winning or losing.

It's a big pro-Romney shift.

But also note that Ohio continues to be a real prick. So's Virginia, actually. Even after poll movement, Obama is still narrowly, narrowly favored.

More! ARG finds...

Florida: Romney 49, Obama 46

New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 46

New Hampshire? For real?

That's a neat little bonus.

Rasmussen Preview: CAC says Rasmussen will post Virginia Romney 49, Obama 47 when they publish later.

Plus ME2. Maine allocates two of its Electoral votes according to the winner of its two districts. Maine 2, the more Republican district, leans in Romney's favor, by five points.

That's another EV.

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posted by Ace at 10:50 AM

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