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October 12, 2012

Biden Dominates Ryan In Debate Polling, 48-41%...

So, Biden won, 48-41. In California.

Good news? Nah, neutral news. But... Partisan split: R 26% D 45% I 28%. Heavily Democratic sample. D+19. Thanks to t-bird.

Here's the good news:

22% of respondents said they changed their leanings based upon the debate. Of that 22%, here's how votes shifted (bearing in mind we are now talking percentages of that subgroup):

* 30% switched from the Obama ticket to the Romney ticket. * 29% switched from undecided to the Romney ticket. * A total of 59% switched to the Romney ticket.

* 20% switched from the Romney ticket to the Obama ticket.
* 20% switched from undecided to the Obama ticket.
* A total of 40% switched to the Obama ticket.

Does this help in California? No. We're not winning California.

But if there's a net-positive movement towards Romney in liberal California, you can bet there's movement elsewhere.

Now, SurveyUSA does robocalls, and such calls have half the response rate of human-conducted interviews. However, the response rate for human-conducted polls is about 9%.

So, robocalls get half that.

9% vs. 4%? Still a very, very low response rate.

But that's why robocalls are usually discounted (by firms who do not do robocalls, of course).

Via @conartcritic

By the way, while Liberal Poll Truthers slag the CNN poll (48 Ryan, 44 Biden) for being "too Republican" -- 32 R, 30 D; so R+2 -- they gleefully cite the CBS poll, which is... D+8.

Or, I forget-- what's the rule? That's right -- they can examine partisan splits and dismiss polls based on what they consider a crazy split.

But if I look at a D+8 poll, and similarly discount it, I'm a "Poll Truther."

Chuck Todd and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza told me that!

It should also be noted that CNN polled undecided likely voters.

And yes, likely voters do tend to be more Republican, dearhearts.

So It's Hillary, Then? Jay Carney walks it back to say Biden meant himself, the President, and the White House didn't know.

Says that's a State Department decision.

Okay, gee, can you call up the person who runs State? If you don't have her number, I'm sure someone can find it for you.

digg this
posted by Ace at 11:40 AM

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