FoxNew's First Poll of Likely Voters Puts Romney Ahead By One (MoE) Point, 45-44

A statistical tie.

But I came across this from a trusted source: Larry Sabato noted that no incumbent has ever won when tied before Election Day.

"When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never - at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s," says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Going over the final polls, he writes in the latest issue of his Crystal Ball e-newsletter, the most impressive finding is that the Gallup poll, for the first time in its seven-decade history, has given its final prediction as a tie: 49 percent for Bush, 49 percent for John Kerry, 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent divided among the Libertarian, Constitution and other tickets.

One thing, though: Bush did win that election. Well, once we rigged the voting machines in Ohio, I mean.

And according to RCP's poll of polls, he took a lead in August and held it through the election.

Thanks to @justkarl for finding that for me. Thanks for @projectiondesk for the update about the RCP average.

posted by Ace at 08:48 PM

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