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August 23, 2012

AOSHQDD Early Call: Wisconsin U. S. Senate

Tommy Thompson will be the new U.S. Senator from Wisconsin, meaning the Badger state will go from 2 very liberal Democratic Senators to an all-Republican delegation two years. Kohl's decision to retire I suspect reflects a growing reality he'd rather not deal with despite his popularity and tenure: the rapid reddening of Wisconsin.

Thompson has enjoyed a consistent lead over a sluggish Baldwin all year, his numbers dipping only during the nastier parts of his party's primary. He is scoring low-90s numbers amongst Republicans and a clear majority of independents, with a projected electorate of EVEN-to-D+1 (a massive shift from 2008 ), there simply aren't enough Democrats in Madison and Milwaukee to save him (and turnout in Madison won't hurt Tommy as he's only down 10 in the metro area, far closer than Walker or Johnson).

With Nebraska, this makes two solid Republican pickups.


Cool new contest for those really interested in election forecasting: is running a contest in which you submit your projected map of the Presidential race, scoring some sweet cash if you win. The contest, America's Electoral Map, will accumulate projections to generate their final user-submitted map a week before November 6th. Recently, that map has shifted to an Obama lead of 284-254, with the most recent predictions giving Romney Wisconsin, Ohio, and Colorado (scroll over it to see overall vs most recent). Enter, sit back, and use your winnings to buy the bacon of your choice.

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posted by CAC at 09:12 PM

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