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August 23, 2012

AOSHQDD Early Call: Wisconsin U. S. Senate

Tommy Thompson will be the new U.S. Senator from Wisconsin, meaning the Badger state will go from 2 very liberal Democratic Senators to an all-Republican delegation two years. Kohl's decision to retire I suspect reflects a growing reality he'd rather not deal with despite his popularity and tenure: the rapid reddening of Wisconsin.

Thompson has enjoyed a consistent lead over a sluggish Baldwin all year, his numbers dipping only during the nastier parts of his party's primary. He is scoring low-90s numbers amongst Republicans and a clear majority of independents, with a projected electorate of EVEN-to-D+1 (a massive shift from 2008 ), there simply aren't enough Democrats in Madison and Milwaukee to save him (and turnout in Madison won't hurt Tommy as he's only down 10 in the metro area, far closer than Walker or Johnson).

With Nebraska, this makes two solid Republican pickups.

***

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posted by CAC at 09:12 PM

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